NFL Love, Like, Lean & Leave Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (2023)
Let’s admit it. When we assemble our bets for each week of the 2023 NFL season, we don’t like every play equally. Anyone who tells you they absolutely love each of their seven plays is lying. Not every game can be a 5-star hammer whale special.
That is the point of this new series. Each week, I’ll give you a bet I feel great about, a bet I feel good about, a bet I’m lukewarm on, and some games I’m staying away from entirely. It will primarily be sides and totals, but there could be a prop thrown in from time to time too.
The logic here is by indicating my level of confidence with my betting card, it’ll better help you solidify your thoughts and prioritize the plays you want to make each week.
And since alliteration is catchy (I know I’m not the only one who has the 5 D’s of dodgeball from the movie “Dodgeball†ingrained in me), I’m labeling each of these bets as my Love, Like, Lean and Leave. We’ll call them the 4 L’s for short.
Without further ado, let’s dive into my lock, like, lean and leave for Week 1.
NFL Week 1 Love, Like, Lean and Leave
Week 1 Bet I Love: Cleveland Browns (+2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Don’t mess with divisional home underdogs in Week 1, particularly those who missed the playoffs the final year. Divisional home underdogs are 60-34-2 ATS since 2005 during the first three weeks of the season, and Week 1 divisional dogs who missed the playoffs the year prior are 55-23-2 (71%) ATS.
Of course, I can counter those encouraging trends with some nasty ones about Cleveland, who is 1-16-1 straight up in Week 1 since 2005. But hey, they won their season opener last year, so maybe a new streak is about to begin.
Trends aside, the Browns have matched up well with Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense. The primary reason has been Cleveland’s ability to get pressure on Burrow by sending only four rushers. Burrow is 1-4 against the Browns in his career, compared to 28-15-1 against the rest of the NFL. Plus, Burrow could be a little rusty after missing the bulk of training camp with a calf injury.
Cleveland’s defense has some really strong pieces, particularly upfront with Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith, who posted 10 sacks in Minnesota last year. But Cleveland’s secondary also has plenty of talent to make like difficult on Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Offensively, I love the assets Cleveland has assembled. Nick Chubb is a stud and will run behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Amari Cooper is a strong WR1, Donovan Peoples-Jones gives the offense a field stretcher, and there’s some upside in slot receiver Elijah Moore and rookie Cedric Tillman, who also offers some explosive ability.
Deshaun Watson might be the greatest unknown across the entire NFL. If he can return to his old form, the Browns are legit contenders to win the AFC. If he flounders, Cleveland will fight to be .500. I’m willing to take a chance on Watson simply needing to shake off the rust after a long absence from football.
After holding out for a 3 to hit the market, it appears this line is only going to inch closer to a pick. The Browns made a massive upgrade at defensive coordinator, replacing the incompetent Joe Woods with Jim Schwartz. I think we’ll see some early returns in a classic AFC North slug fest. I don’t mind taking Cleveland on the moneyline, but will for sure take the points.
Week 1 Bet I Like: Green Bay Packers (+1) at Chicago Bears
Catching the theme yet? Although Green Bay is a road dog in this case, I get the feeling the wrong team is favored in this contest.
Now, I understand why oddsmakers are listing the Bears as favorites. Nobody knows what to expect out of Packers QB Jordan Love. Plus, Green Bay could be without its top two receivers, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
Yet despite all of that, this line has moved down from Chicago -2.5. And that’s with the Bears being one of the most popular choices to exceed expectations in 2023. I even gave out their win total over earlier this summer.
But while the Bears could be an up and comer this season, the roster still has flaws I expect Green Bay to exploit. Green Bay holds a massive advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Packers boast one of the league’s best offensive lines, while Chicago spent most of its resources adding linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, additions that will certainly help their run defense. The problem is I don’t think Chicago has enough of a pass rush to put Love under duress often enough. While Love is a complete unknown, operating out of a clean pocket will only help him.
On the flip side, Chicago’s offensive line is already battered by injuries. Starting left guard Teven Jenkins is already on IR. Newly-signed guard Nate Davis has missed a good amount of training camp and sat out Thursday’s practice for personal reasons. The Bears have already been shifting their line, putting Cody Whitehair to left guard and inserting backup Lucas Patrick at center. Chicago is also relying on rookie Darnell Wright at right tackle opposite second-year starter Braxton Jones.
Green Bay’s front seven remains strong and could have Justin Fields on the run often. Fields’ mobility adds lots of variance to this game, but the Packers have the talent to keep him bottled up.
The Bears will be better, but still have too many questions at key positions, including quarterback. Green Bay feels discounted following the departure of Aaron Rodgers, as this is still a roster that can compete for a playoff berth in a lousy NFC. It helps that coach Matt LaFleur is 13-4 ATS as an underdog, including 1-0 with Love under center.
Honorable Mentions
- Buffalo Bills (ML) at New York Jets
- Tennessee Titans (+3) at New Orleans Saints
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 1 Bet I Lean On: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Yep. I’m betting on Baker Mayfield in Week 1. That’s all you need to know as to why this isn’t a bet I exactly love. It doesn’t help that Todd Bowles is 18-27-3 ATS as an underdog.
That being said, this line feels steep. After a surprisingly great year in which Minnesota won pretty much every close game (except for their playoff loss to the Giants), the Vikings didn’t do a whole lot to improve their roster. In fact, the Vikings shed several important veterans, such as Smith, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson.
They supplemented the defense by signing cornerback Byron Murphy, who had seven picks before suffering a season-ending back injury, as well as defensive end Marcus Davenport, who mostly disappointed in New Orleans. The Vikings added a couple intriguing young pieces in the draft in receiver Jordan Addison and cornerback Mekhi Blackmon, who could contribute early.
However, the general belief surrounding Minnesota’s offseason was that the team had a plan to get younger. And that could be a bad recipe when you factor in just how much regression Minnesota might be due for after going 11-1 in one score games.
The Vikings still have Kirk Cousins and the best receiver in the game in Justin Jefferson. But Tampa’s defense still has a ton of talent at all three levels, and Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy scheme could give Cousins fits.
Offensively, I think Mayfield will do just fine against a Vikings secondary that allowed the third-most net yards per pass attempt in the league last season. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still there, and Minnesota doesn’t have the pass rushing talent to exploit Tampa’s weakest link — it’s offensive line.
I also think we are treating the 2023 Bucs like we treated the 2022 Seattle Seahawks. After the departure of a superstar QB, everyone quickly wrote off the Seahawks offense. I’m not saying the Bucs will be a carbon-copy repeat of the Seahawks. But Mayfield was more well-regarded than Smith ever was during their careers. And the firing of Byron Leftwich as OC will be a positive, as Leftwich clearly wasn’t cut out for the gig.
I have a confession, I took this at +7 shortly after Week 1 lines came out earlier in the summer. So maybe I actually like this more than I’m letting on.
Week 1 Game I’m Leaving Alone: Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Total 44
This is the definition of a stay-away game for me, as there’s uncertainty all over the place. Can Sean Payton resurrect Russell Wilson’s career? Was it really all Nathaniel Hackett’s fault? And will we get a significant drop off between Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo in Vegas? Can the Raiders defense stop anyone?
I’d consider a bet on Denver if this line got to -2.5, but I suspect it won’t drop beneath a field goal. I’ll pass and reassess these teams next week.
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What games do you love, like, lean and are leaving alone in Week 1? Let me know on Twitter @RealMattBarbato!