NFL Love, Like, Lean & Leave Predictions: Week 5 (2024)
Finally, I have found love in 2024. Thank you to the Baltimore Ravens for taking care of business against the Buffalo Bills last Sunday night in a game that played out pretty close to how I handicapped it.
It always feels good to get a bet right, but it’s even sweeter when you’ve advertised it as a bet you love. We’ll try to keep the momentum going after another winning week. This is an interesting week, as there are quite a few bets I like, but not many that I really feel strongly enough to love.
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Week 4 Love, Like, Lean & Leave Picks
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
2024 Record:
- Loves: 1-3
- Likes: 3-1
- Leans: 2-2
- Total: 6-6
Love: Jacksonville Jaguars (-158) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Love can be hard. Sometimes you have to do things you don’t want to do. And while I do think the Jaguars are my favorite bet this week, I’m not going to lie and say I enjoy it.
Yes, the Jaguars are 0-4. Yes, they are calling for Doug Pederson’s firing and questioning his grasp on the team. Yes, Trevor Lawrence has not looked great after getting the bag this offseason. But the Jaguars were close to scoring their first win in a highly competitive game against the Texans that they lost at the very end. And while the 47-10 loss to Buffalo on Monday Night Football will ring in everyone’s memory, the Jaguars have lost their other three games by a combined 15 points.
My point is, I don’t think the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL even if their record suggests this through the first month. And while I don’t think they’re a playoff-caliber team, I do think they’re more competitive than they’ve shown. A matchup against a Colts squad is a great spot to get their first victory.
For starters, the Colts haven’t won a game at Jacksonville since 2014, and that losing streak has included some serious meltdowns in situations where the Colts were far superior and playing for a postseason berth. The Colts also won’t have star running back Jonathan Taylor for this game, which is a big loss for the offense.
The Colts also have some uncertainty under center, as Anthony Richardson’s status for Sunday is up in the air. While Richardson adds plenty of juice with his legs, I’d probably prefer him starting this game over the veteran Joe Flacco. That sounds crazy on the surface, but Richardson’s inaccuracy could be an advantage against a beleaguered Jaguars secondary that ranks 31st in EPA pass defense and primarily plays man coverage. That means Richardson will have to fit the ball into tighter windows than he would against zone, which favors Jaguar backers. And while Jacksonville’s defense is a mess, Indy’s isn’t much better. The Colts rank 27th in pass defense EPA.
Trevor Lawrence is tough to trust, but he’s had success against the Colts, going 4-2 with a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Unless Pederson really has lost his team, I expect the Jaguars to get their first win of 2024. That being said, I’m more comfortable taking some extra juice on the moneyline to avoid laying a field goal in a game that could be pretty tight.
Like: Pittsburgh Steelers (-148) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Taking another short home favorite here on the moneyline, although I don’t mind taking Pittsburgh at anything under a field goal.
Historically, this has been a good spot to back Mike Tomlin-led teams. Since 2007, Pittsburgh is 56-42-1 against the spread after a loss. He’s also 42-32 in non-conference games during that span, and 60-57-2 as a home favorite. And against opponents who hold a rest advantage (Dallas last played on Thursday night), Tomlin is 29-25-3 ATS. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are just 7-10 ATS as a road underdog under Mike McCarthy, although Dallas is 11-4 ATS with a rest advantage.
Those trends are all great, but Pittsburgh should hold some matchup advantages in this primetime game. For starters, both Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence are out for Sunday night, and that’s massive. This may be disrespectful to the rest of the unit, but what is this Cowboys defense without those two on the field? At the very least, it’ll be an uphill climb for a unit that hasn’t been particularly good this season after replacing Dan Quinn with Mike Zimmer.
Most concerning for Dallas is their run defense, which ranks 26th in EPA. The Steelers are geared to take advantage on the ground, even if more explosive back Jaylen Warren can’t go.
Justin Fields has been respectable at quarterback and has seemingly experienced some development under Pittsburgh’s coaching staff. While the Cowboys clearly hold the advantage at QB, I’m more willing to trust Fields in this situation than I would’ve been a year ago.
On the flip side, I’d expect Dallas to face a ton of obvious passing situations against a Pittsburgh defense that won’t be afraid to pin its ears back and pressure Dak Prescott, who will be without his No. 2 receiver Brandin Cooks. The Cowboys also have issues along the offensive line, which is bad news against T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward. Plus, Dallas cannot run the ball and things won’t get better against a Pittsburgh front that’s second in run defense EPA.
This is a situation I wanted to bet into last week and so far it’s played out how I expected. The Cowboys steadied the ship against a divisional opponent and now travel to face a Steelers team that’ll be highly motivated after suffering its first loss. Take the Steelers to get it done.
Lean: Houston Texans (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills
Another short moneyline play, which turned out to be a theme this week. But C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ passing game should be able to carve up the middle of this Bills’ defense similar to how the Ravens did when last week’s game was in doubt. The Bills will also be without Khalil Shakir, who I deem as Buffalo’s best receiver, and defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who is a huge presence upfront for a Bills run defense that’s already pretty weak up the middle. Not having Joe Mixon definitely hurts, but Houston should be able to maul Buffalo up front and take care of business at home.
Leave: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1)
A divisional tossup between Tyler Huntley and Jacoby Brissett. What a barn burner. The Dolphins have looked hapless ever since Tua Tagovailoa went down, and I’m beginning to question just how good of a coach Mike McDaniel is, as the talent around Huntley hasn’t really changed. That being said, the Patriots are equally as abysmal. Just don’t get involved.