NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets & Picks (Commanders vs. Bengals)
Week 3 of the NFL season has two Monday Night Football games, including the Washington Commanders on the road to take on the Cincinnati Bengals. This is also a battle of former LSU Tigers quarterbacks - rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels opposing Joe Burrow. The Bengals are 0-2 after starting the year with losses to the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs. The Commanders are 1-1, coming off a win against the New York Giants.
Below are my best bets for this game. All wagers are for one unit unless otherwise stated.
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Best Week 3 Monday Night Football Picks (Commanders vs. Bengals)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Over 46.5 Points (-112)
The point spread for this game was 7.5. I was leaning toward the Commanders, but it’s since dropped to seven. I’m avoiding it and sticking with the total. This total dropped from 47 to 46.5.
The Bengals’ offense looked much better in Week 2, putting up 25 on the road against the Chiefs. They have wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, but fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins will also make his season debut. As for their defense, they’re allowing 159.5 rushing yards per game (26th), while the Commanders’ offense averages nearly 33 carries per outing.
Further, the Bengals allow opposing quarterbacks to average 5.5 yards per carry. They’ve played Jacoby Brissett and Patrick Mahomes. They’ll have to contain Daniels and a running game consisting of Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr.
Look for the Washington offense to do enough on the ground to create explosive plays while the Bengals’ passing attack takes advantage of a Commanders defense that allows 227.5 passing yards per game (tied for 22nd).
Ja’Marr Chase Over 6.5 Receptions (-125)
Speaking of the Bengals’ passing attack, I’m taking the over on Ja’Marr Chase’s receptions (6.5).
Through two games, he has 10 receptions (six in Week 1 and four in Week 2). He’ll take on a Commanders defense that allows 15 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers. After Chase, no other receiver has more than five catches. Higgins will be back, but Chase will see plenty of matchups against Benjamin St-Juste, Noah Igbinoghene and Michael Davis. They’ve combined to allow 15 receptions on 26 targets.
I expect to see a lot of Chase in this one.
Tee Higgins Anytime TD Scorer (+160)
Piggybacking off of how inept the Commanders’ secondary is, I think we see Tee Higgins get back in the end zone in his first game. Commanders cornerbacks tend to stay on one side. Higgins can line up on either side out wide. This will allow him to get favorable matchups. St-Juste has allowed two touchdowns on his own this season.
The Commanders’ defense as a whole allows three touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers, including four in Week 1 and two in Week 2.
Higgins is fresh from an injury and has a favorable matchup. This is a great spot to get him back into the offense.
In 2023, Higgins caught three of his five touchdowns in the red zone, so he could be an option down there. The Bengals have six red-zone trips this season and have scored touchdowns on three of them.
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