NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets & Picks (Jaguars vs. Bills)

by Richard Janvrin |
Sep 23, 2024

Week 3 of the NFL season has two Monday Night Football games, including the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills. In 2023, the Jaguars played the Bills on the road as underdogs and won. The Bills are coming off an extended rest, playing in the Week 2 Thursday Night Football game. The Jaguars are trying to avoid an 0-3 start after a Week 2 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Below are my best bets for this game. All wagers are for one unit unless otherwise stated.

Letâ€™s dive in.

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Best Week 3 Monday Night Football Picks (Jaguars vs. Bills)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Over 45.5 Points (-110)

While this is a different game and scenario than the game in 2023, itâ€™s worth noting Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence completed 25-of-37 passes for 315 yards and a touchdown last season at Buffalo. Heading into this game, the Jaguars are without star tight end Evan Engram, but they still have wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., whoâ€™s emerged as a solid deep passing option.

The Bills are without cornerback Taron Johnson and linebacker Terrel Bernard once again. These absences could show up more with the Jaguars trailing. The Jaguars are 5.5-point underdogs. While Lawrence is completing just 51% of his passes, heâ€™s been excellent on deep passes, completing 7-of-11 for 212 yards and one touchdown. His only touchdown this season came on a deep pass.

The Bills defense has shown potential for turnovers, but Lawrence has been fairly safe with the ball. They have a backfield with Travis Etienne and Tank Bisgby, who will suit up.

I donâ€™t have any concerns about the Bills scoring here with their dynamic running game and Allen as their quarterback. The question is whether the Jaguars will do their part. With a decent rushing attack and a quarterback who will look deep (21.6% of his attempts have gone 20+ yards downfield), we could see some quicker scores or more optimal field positions.

Iâ€™ll take the over.

Gabe Davis: Over 39.5 Receiving Yards/Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115/+340)

Here we go - a revenge game.

Gabe Davis signed with Jacksonville this offseason after spending his entire career with Buffalo.

He racked up 62 yards (Week 1) and 42 (Week 2) through two weeks. The Bills defense has allowed 17 receptions on 31 targets to opposing receivers, and theyâ€™ve allowed at least one receiver in each matchup to get over this number.

The Bills have played the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray barely threw the ball (just over five yards per attempt) while Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was picked off three times.

I think the revenge game factor matters here, especially on primetime television. Look for Davis to continue topping this line in Week 3.

Josh Allen Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The Jaguars allow opposing quarterbacks to complete about 22 passes on 35 attempts per game. Theyâ€™ve also allowed 262 yards per game, but there is a slight caveat. Tua Tagovailoa played the Jaguars in Week 1 and had 338 yards, while Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns passed for just 186.

To this point, Allen has thrown for 232 yards (Week 1) and 139 yards (Week 2). In Week 2, throwing wasnâ€™t really needed. The defense had multiple turnovers, and running back James Cook scored plenty. In 2023, Allen had 12 games with 231+ passing yards, including 359 against the Jaguars.

This is a new-look Bills team, but as mentioned, the Jaguars have the weapons to score some points on the road despite their slow start. I expect the Bills to work the passing game more here, especially with opposing running backs averaging 3.73 yards per carry against the Jaguars.

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