NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets & Picks (Saints vs. Chiefs)
Week 5 of the NFL season is back to just one game on Monday Night Football this week; it’s the New Orleans Saints on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Below are my best bets for this game. All wagers are for one unit unless otherwise stated.
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Best Week 5 Monday Night Football Picks (Saints vs. Chiefs)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Saints +5.5 (-112)
While I think the Chiefs will win this game, the Saints should be able to keep this close enough to cover the spread at 5.5 points.
The Chiefs are a team that’s 4-0, yes, but they’ve gotten there in intriguing ways.
Whether it was the Baltimore Ravens being out of bounds by a toe in Week 1 that would’ve forced overtime, the pass interference call in Week 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals, or the no-call on pass interference in Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons, this Chiefs team has looked far from its best.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is averaging 226 passing yards per game and has five interceptions through four games. The Saints are a defensive unit that’s averaging more than one pick per game, including two in Weeks 1 and 2.
In addition, the Chiefs have numerous offensive injuries, including wide receivers Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice as well as running back Isiah Pacheco.
Brown hasn’t been on the field all season, but given Pacheco and Rice’s status, you know they’re hoping he was able to play.
This leaves the Chiefs with a wide receiving corps that includes JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Worthy, and Justin Watson, among others.
The problem for the Saints, primarily, is that the Chiefs’ defense is excellent against the run, allowing 57 yards per game.
Given the Chiefs’ injuries, the Saints’ defense, and the Saints’ offensive performances earlier this season, I think they keep it close, but lose by a field goal.
Alvin Kamara Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
As mentioned, the Chiefs have allowed just 57 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and held them to 3.12 yards per carry.
They’ve allowed just two rushing touchdowns all year, and no single team has gone for 66 yards or more, let alone a single player.
Kamara has gone over this number in each game this season, but this is the best defense against the run he’s faced yet.
As a decently sized underdog at 5.5 points, I could see Kamara used far more in the passing game as an extension of the running game, but the Chiefs are too tough to run on traditionally.
Lean Under here.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Smith-Schuster has seen just four targets and has two catches for 17 yards and a touchdown this season.
In Week 4, against the Los Angeles Chargers, just one week after catching his touchdown, he saw nothing—no targets, catches, nothing.
However, looking at the receiving snaps of the team, he ranks fifth with 58.
Ahead of him is Travis Kelce, Worthy, Rice, and Watson.
Smith-Schuster does line up both outside and in the slot, but given the injury to Rice, a player who also had essentially a 50/50 split, he should see more playing time this week in an offense he’s familiar with.
Out of the slot, he’ll face Saints slot cornerback Alontae Taylor, who’s allowed 19 receptions on 24 targets for 164 yards this season. He allows a reception rate of 79.2%, and the average catch is 8.6 yards. With those numbers, Smith-Schuster needs just two receptions to get it done.