NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets & Picks (Seahawks vs. Lions)
Week 4 of the NFL season has two Monday Night Football games, including the Detroit Lions taking on the Seattle Seahawks.
Below are my best bets for this game. All wagers are for one unit unless otherwise stated.
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Best Week 4 Monday Night Football Picks (Seahawks vs. Lions)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Seahawks +4 (-108)
The Seahawks enter this game, allowing just 132.3 passing yards per game, but there’s a bit of a caveat - they’ve played the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins started Skylar Thompson in place of an injured Tua Tagovailoa, the game against Denver came with Bo Nix in his first-ever start and the Patriots’ passing offense has been stagnant all season.
Still, the Seahawks seem to have the Lions’ number, beating them in each of their last six matchups. The most recent came last season around this same time (Sept. 17, 2023) with the Seahawks winning 37-31 in overtime.
We know the Lions have a game-wrecker in EDGE rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Thankfully, the Seahawks have a competent left tackle in Charles Cross, who’s allowed just one sack and three pressures this season. He didn’t allow anything through the first two weeks.
The Lions attempted to improve their secondary, but it’s not quite there yet with Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis III, who’ve allowed a combined 31 receptions on 42 targets for 384 yards and three touchdowns. This could be a problem against field-stretchers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Out of the slot, the Seahawks have Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will be up against Amik Robertson, who’s only played 61 snaps through three games.
The Seahawks have the firepower to keep up with or surpass the Lions and they have a defense that’s had a great start despite the lackluster opponents.
Look for the Seahawks to cover.
Jameson Williams Anytime TD Scorer (+245)
With a player of Jameson Williams’ skill set that includes deep passes, I’m willing to take a chance on an anytime TD with him.
Yes, the Seahawks have Tariq Woolen, but I think he’ll primarily be assigned to Amon-Ra St. Brown. With that, Williams will likely see a lot of Tre Brown, who primarily plays outside. There’s also Devon Witherspoon, but he also plays in the slot.
Brown and Witherspoon have allowed a combined 14 receptions on 23 targets for 123 yards. Again, the Seahawks haven’t played against opposing offenses with potent passing attacks, so we need to gauge the stats through that lens.
As for Williams himself, he’s caught 11 receptions on 22 targets for 209 yards and a score.
He’s coming off a game with one catch for nine yards, but he’s averaging 19 yards per catch.
Of those 22 targets, 27.3% have come on passes 20+ yards downfield. Another 27.3% have also come on passes 10-19 yards downfield.
Williams is the type of player that can get this done with one catch. This is the hardest opponent for the Seahawks’ secondary to date.
David Montgomery Under 7.5 Receiving Yards (+160)
Running backs that have played the Seahawks have left the game without much production. To date, the Seahawks have allowed five receptions for 21 yards per game to running backs.
As for the Lions, they have David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. While Montgomery has gotten some pass-catching production recently, I think this game belongs to Gibbs in terms of running back pass-catching production.
The Seahawks are allowing 116.3 rushing yards per game, including 185 in Week 2 at the Patriots.
I think we see Montgomery as the primary running back to move the chains, with Gibbs sprinkled in, catching passes out of the backfield for more explosiveness and as an extension of the running game.
Montgomery has eight catches through three games, averaging 6.8 yards per game. He could get this done on one catch, but the Seahawks’ run defense could shut him down.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: