NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets & Picks (Texans vs. Cowboys)
On Monday Night Football in Week 11, the Dallas Cowboys host the Houston Texans. The Texans are 6-4 this season (4-6 against the spread). The Cowboys are 3-6 (2-7 against the spread).
The Texans have lost two straight games, coming off a 26-23 loss to the Detroit Lions. As for the Cowboys, they’ve lost four straight and fell to the Philadelphia Eagles 34-6 last week.
Below are my best bets for tonight’s game.
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Best Week 11 NFL Monday Night Football Picks: Texans vs. Cowboys
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Texans -7 (-120)
After seeing how the Cowboys looked last week against the Eagles, it’s hard to pick them against the spread (ATS), regardless of the number. Cooper Rush was the starting quarterback and was eventually benched for Trey Lance. Together, they combined for 66 passing yards on 29 attempts.
That’s barely over two yards per attempt.
Rush will be the starter again here, but he has a lifetime 59.7% completion percentage with nine touchdowns and six interceptions.
The Cowboys will be turning things over to Rico Dowdle as the lead back. While he’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry, I fear any running back trying to run successfully in an offense led by Rush or Lance simply won’t be all that effective because opposing defenses aren’t worried about the pass whatsoever.
That said, the Texans have allowed multiple touchdown passes in four of the last five games, but I don’t think Rush is the player to take advantage of that.
I think the Cowboys could hit 13 points or so, but given Rush’s career numbers, it’s hard to imagine any more than that.
Joe Mixon 2+ Touchdowns (+340)
Heading into this game, Joe Mixon has scored every week he’s started and finished the game.
If you look at his game logs, the only game he didn’t score in was Week 2 against the Chicago Bears - a game he left with an injury.
Since coming back, he has scored at least once in each game and twice in two games.
I think he has an excellent chance to do that once again here.
As it is, the Cowboys allow approximately 24 carries for 111 yards and more than one rushing touchdown per game. They’ve allowed multiple rushing scores in three games.
The Texans are 7-point favorites here, which, as outlined above, isn’t all too threatening.
Because of that, Mixon could see 25+ touches and be highly effective.
I certainly think he’ll score once (-170 odds for an anytime touchdown), but because of game script and the Cowboys’ lack of offensive output, his volume will put him in spots to score a second time.
I’m willing to go with a half-unit wager on him two score two or more touchdowns at +340 odds.
Dalton Schultz Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Texans will likely have wide receiver Nico Collins back tonight.
However, he’s coming off a hamstring injury, so I don’t expect he’ll have the biggest workload, especially if this game pans out how I think it will, with the Cowboys not putting up much of a fight.
Thus, I’m turning to tight end Dalton Schultz to record at least 30 yards.
He’s had 30+ yards in two of the last three games and takes on a Cowboys defense that allows an average of 42 yards to the position per game.
They’ve surrendered 30 yards to tight ends in five games this season.