Navigate

NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets & Predictions (Week 14)

by |

Week 14 of the NFL season is giving us two “Monday Night Football” games. The red-hot Packers will travel to the Meadowlands to play the Giants. Meanwhile, the Titans will head down to Miami to take on the high-flying Miami offense. Here are a few quick thoughts and my favorite plays from each of these games.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

The Packers are on a three-game winning streak where they’ve gone into each contest as an underdog. The play of Jordan Love has been key. He’s been excellent, compiling 857 yards and eight touchdowns during the streak. However, one glaring stat also playing a huge role is the +5 turnover difference in these games. The Packers have played very well, but they’ve been the beneficiary of some big turnover opportunities as none of the wins came by more than one score.

The Giants have been playing pretty well recently in their own right. Tommy DeVito has started to get comfortable in this offense, and he was able to lead the Giants to two straight wins. Another big reason the Giants have had success is the pass defense. The defense downright dominated Mac Jones and the Patriots two weeks ago and followed it up by shutting down the then-league passing leader Sam Howell to a 230-yard day on 45 attempts. The Giants have around a league-average pass defense per DVOA, but they’re playing some of their best ball now.

Love will struggle to succeed through the air against this defense. The Chiefs were able to slow him down a bit in the second half, and the Giants could have similar success. Offensively, New York should have some success on the ground, and given the trend of low-scoring games in primetime this season, a slow defensive ground game will serve the Giants well if they want to cover this spread.

Pick: Giants +6.0 (-112)

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are starting to feel inevitable. Their offense outpaces almost any other unit in the league. Tua Tagovailoa is playing incredibly, and he has an armory of elite weapons all around him. Miami also ranks top three in DVOA in both run and pass offense. Although the Titans’ defense they’re going up against is actually pretty impressive against the run, first in DVOA, they’re putrid against the pass. It’s hard to imagine that they can slow down this elite passing attack.

The Titans managed to allow 312 yards and two touchdowns to Gardner Minshew and the Colts last week. Recent blowouts against the Jaguars and Buccaneers highlight a downward trend in this Titans team that remains winless on the road this season, losing by an average of 11.7 points per contest. If Tennessee can’t slow down Miami, this game could get out of hand quickly as well.

Defensively, Miami has had a lot of success the last few weeks against some subpar offenses. They’ve held the Raiders, Jets and Commanders to 13.3 points per game on this three-game win streak. The Titans are a below-average offense, sitting just one place above the Commanders in DVOA. They won’t be able to keep up with this Miami offense once the Dolphins get going. This game is primed to be another Miami blowout.

Pick: Dolphins -14.0 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts| RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App