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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 15)

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Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 15 from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 15’s Monday Night Football Double-Header. In this special two-game MNF edition, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchups as the 15th week of the NFL comes to a close. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to kick off your week.

Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Double-Header Primer

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Sides:

  • The Bears have lost 11 of their last 12 road games.
  • The Bears have lost each of their last eight road games.
  • The Bears are 12-8-1 ATS and 10-11 straight up in their last 21 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in 12 of the Bears' last 13 games.
  • The Bears have lost the first half in each of their last seven road games.
  • The Bears have lost the first quarter in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Bears are 6-12-1 ATS as road underdogs. 6-13-1 ATS on the road.
  • The Bears have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
  • In 12 of the Bears’ last 13 games, their opponents have scored first.
  • Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Bears have won eight of their last 11 home games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 13 of the Bears' last 18 games.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 19 games.
  • They are 8-5 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • As home favorites, the Vikings are 12-4 on the money line (75%) but just 7-10 ATS (45%).
  • The Vikings have dropped eight of their last 10 home games ATS as a favorite.
  • All but seven of the Vikings' last 27 games have been decided by eight points or less (74%).
  • The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in 12 of their last 13 games.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings are 7-4-2 ATS as road favorites.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Bears' last 13 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Bears’ last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bears' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 12-6-1 under the point total in their last 18 games.
  • Fifteen of the Bears' last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Vikings’ last 16 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Vikings' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 7-6 toward the under this season. This season, 4-2 toward the under at home, averaging 47.2 points per game. It was 44 points per game before last week.
  • The Vikings are 4-10-1 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023.

Overall:

The Vikings have won each of their last six games. They are riding high after a huge win against the Atlanta Falcons and will host a reeling Chicago Bears team on Monday night. The Bad News Bears have been one of the worst teams on the road this season (straight up and ATS), and that hasn't improved after any of their several coach firings this season.

It’s pretty easy to look at this game and fade the Bears into oblivion. But the Vikings haven't always been the safest bets as heavy home favorites. But to their credit, they have covered both six-point spreads at home this season. 5-1 overall at home and 4-2 ATS.

Still, I just can't completely overlook the fact that Minnesota typically tends to play teams tight, and last week was trending in that direction before a costly Falcons' special teams fumble. Chicago has gone down to the wire in several of their losses this season despite all their turmoil. Da Bears are 7-5-1 ATS this season, even though they have a 4-9 overall record.

When these teams played just a few weeks ago, it was a 3-point game with a 30-27 finish in overtime.

Given the oddities of divisional games, I'll likely avoid the sides and just take the under at 44.5 points.

The Vikings are 4-10-1 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023 (2-4 this season, averaging 44 points per game before last week's eruption).

Minnesota’s “overs” have all been against offenses like the healthy Rams, Lions, Packers, and Falcons. The Bears game went over a few weeks ago, which was surprising and a reason why this total is currently set where it is. But the total back in Week 12 was set at 39.5 points. Bears games on the road as underdogs usually go under the total, as do Vikings home games.

Ten of the Bears' last 13 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line. Eight of the Bears’ last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line. Eleven of the Vikings’ last 16 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

The Bears also have the third-best red-zone defense this season, while Minnesota has the fifth-best red-zone defense at home.

In addition to the under, I think it's wise to take advantage of Minnesota jumping out to a quick lead if possible. Chicago has been terrible in the first halves of games, so laying 3.5 points with the Vikings in the first half seems like a better bet than on the entire game.

Props:

Aaron Jones has scored a touchdown in each of the Vikings’ last three games. The Bears have allowed 12 of the last 13 RBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yards prop.

We know that Minnesota drives volume from their opponents. The last four quarterbacks (including Caleb Williams) who have faced the Vikings have all exceeded their passing yards projection by an average of +100 passing yards.

During his last four games, Caleb Williams has thrown for 222.5 passing yards or more in three of the four contests.

According to Next Gen Stats, Williams set season highs in completions (10), yards (156), and touchdowns (2) against the blitz in Week 12 against the Vikings.

Williams' 121.0 yards per attempt against the blitz was his 2nd-highest of the season. The Vikings blitzed Caleb on just 15 of 54 dropbacks (27.8%) in Week 12, their 3rd-lowest blitz rate of the season. The Vikings have allowed opposing passers to gain 7.9 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, the 12th-most in the NFL.

Minnesota ranks second in the NFL in takeaways per game. Williams has not thrown an interception since Week 6, but he is a major candidate for regression. In the last three games, he has had six turnover-worthy plays (per PFF), including three against the Vikings. The second time around, I don't think his interception-less streak will last.

According to Next Gen Stats, Williams has not thrown an interception in any of his last seven games, which is the longest streak of starts without an interception by a rookie quarterback since 1950. The Bears are also one of just eight remaining teams not to have allowed a non-offensive TD this season...

D.J. Moore has at least six catches in four straight games since Thomas Brown took over the offense.

D'Andre Swift has rushed for fewer than 54.5 yards in three straight games, including a 30-yard performance against the Vikings in Week 12.

Last week, T.J. Hockenson had two red-zone targets and caught one for no touchdowns. But his matchup this week is divine versus the Bears, who are allowing the sixth-most yards to TEs. He went OFF for 7-114 on nine targets earlier against the Bears this season.

Hock has seen plenty of red-zone targets since returning from IR this season, but he hasn't found the end zone yet. That will change on Monday Night Football.

My Picks:

Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sides

  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games against AFC opponents.
  • Their opponents have scored first in seven of the Falcons' last eight games.
  • The underdogs have won 12 of the Falcons' last 25 games.
  • The Falcons are 5-8 ATS on the road, 3-5 ATS as road favorites, and 6-15 on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won six of their last 12 games.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Falcons are 5-4 ATS in their last nine home games as underdogs and 10-5 as home favorites on the money line.
  • The Falcons are 10-18-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 8-7 straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
  • Atlanta is 10-5 on the money line as home favorites (15-10 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 6-9 ATS.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in nine of their last 17 games.
  • The Raiders have lost each of their last nine games.
  • LV is 13-7-1 ATS at home (66%). They are 5-4-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-7 straight up.
  • The Raiders are 13-9-1 ATS over their last 23 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last 11 road games.
  • The Raiders have lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
  • In each of the Raiders’ last nine games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • Their opponents have scored last in each of the Raiders’ last four games.

Totals:

  • The Falcons are 5-8 O/U this season.
  • Atlanta is 3-3 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging over 50 points.
  • Five of the Falcons' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 2-5 O/U at home, averaging UNDER 46.5 points per game.
  • Twelve of the Falcons' last 15 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Falcons' last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 12 of the Raiders' last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line, and they are 16-13 toward the under.
  • Seven of the Raiders' last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Six of the Raiders’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Raiders’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Raiders’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Raiders are 4-1 toward the over at home, with games averaging 46.5 points per game.

Overall:

Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce said Monday that Desmond Ridder is expected to start against the Falcons in Week 15. However, the team has not officially ruled out Aidan O’Connell, who suffered a knee injury last week. Even with an extra day, I find it very hard to believe AOC suits up on MNF, barring anything extreme. He would also be a sitting duck in the pocket behind the patchwork Raiders' offensive line as his immobility precedes him.

So, I'll be breaking down this game under the presumption that Ridder is QB1 in a revenge game against his old team. I’m sure this is the first time you've heard that this week.

Ridder isn't a good quarterback, and it seems like he is ready to turn the ball over at any given moment. That's what it has looked like watching him in limited action this season, and the advanced metrics back it up.

He has a turnover-worthy play in all three games he has played this season, boasting the 3rd-highest turnover-worthy play rate among QBs (behind Drew Lock and Skylar Thompson). In 2023, he was second in total turnover-worthy plays (top 10 in TWP percentage).

There's a reason why the Falcons replaced Ridder after two seasons. And after he failed to get the most out of the Falcons' top playmakers a season ago, there should be concern about him supporting Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers to go along with his impending turnovers.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Raiders offense has allowed the 4th-highest pressure rate (39.3%) and is tied for the 4th-most sacks allowed (43) this season.

The other issue for the Raiders receivers is volume. Ridder is more likely to scramble, sucking total pass attempts out of the offense. Ergo, more times, he is touching the ball versus the guys the Raiders actually want touching the ball.

Via Next Gen Stats, Ridder has been more mobile this season with a 16.7% scramble rate and a 0.73 second additional time to throw after being pressured. Ridder also differs from the other Raiders QBs this season in that he was utilized in pistol alignments often on almost a quarter of his snaps with the Falcons in 2022-2023 (140 plays, 24.5%), while the Raiders as a team have only utilized pistol on 23 total plays this season (2.8%), the 13th-fewest such plays.

Besides, this game is much more of a spotlight on Kirk Cousins. We got a bit of a rebound last week with Cousins tossing 300-plus passing yards, but he was intercepted multiple times. Cousins hasn’t looked good the last few weeks. But he’s faced three elite defenses in three of his last four games, with a dead-cat bounce divisional game against the Saints thrown in the mix.

This is by far the easiest matchup he has had since he played Dallas back in Week 9. He threw 3 TDs and zero interceptions. Since then, it's been 0 TDs and eight interceptions. Woof.

But eventually, things will stabilize, and this seems like the get-right spot for the Falcons offense to make one last push toward a division title.

According to Next Gen Stats, Cousins has not thrown a passing touchdown in each of his last four games, which is the most consecutive starts without a passing touchdown in his career. Cousins has also thrown at least one interception in each of those four games, which is also the longest such streak of his career.

And it might not even be because of Cousins that Atlanta wins here. The Falcons rushing attack should feast.

According to Next Gen Stats, Bijan Robinson has gained +83 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season (14th-most in NFL), and Tyler Allgeier has generated +73 (16th-most), making the Falcons one of only two teams with multiple running backs exceeding +70 (49ers).

The Raiders defense has allowed +213 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL. They allowed just +132 in the previous two seasons combined.

Props:

The Raiders defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest passing yards (317) and the 8th-lowest completion percentage over expected (-6.4%) on deep passes (20+ air yards) this season.

Conversely, they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to slot WRs this season. Drake London has aligned in the slot on a career-high 34.2% of his snaps this season, nearly double his average slot snap rate over his first two career seasons (18.6%).

London has been targeted at the highest rate (35.5%) when lining up in the slot among wide receivers with at least 100 routes from the slot this season (Next Gen Stats).

In 8 games where the Falcons have been favorites, London has gone over 5.5 catches in six of them (79%).

The Falcons WR is also tied with Ja'Marr Chase for the most red-zone targets this season.

My Picks:

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