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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 3)

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Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 3 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 3’s Monday Night Football Double-Header. In this special two-game MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchups as the third week of the NFL comes to a close. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to kick off your week.

This is just a taste of what's coming when the FULL BettingPros Week 4 Primer drops later this week.

Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Double-Header Primer

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills

Sides:

  • The Bills have won each of their last 10 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 12-5 as a favorite since the start of last season. But they are just 7-10 ATS as a favorite (41%).
  • The Bills were 9-2 and 5-6 ATS at home since the start of 2023.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last six games between the Jaguars and Bills.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in ten of their last 13 road games.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars were 7-4 overall as a favorite. They are just 2-6 as an underdog since the start of last season.

Totals:

  • Each of the Bills’ last four home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Jags' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in five of their last 10 games.

Overall:

The Jaguars probably aren't as bad a team as their 0-2 record suggests. As I pointed out in Week 2's primer, they had Miami but collapsed in the second half. In Week 2, they outgained the Browns offensively and held Cleveland to a 17% conversion rate on 3rd downs. They had a TD wiped off the board (to Christian Kirk no less) because of an illegal shift that would have given them a fourth-quarter lead.

Through two games, the Jaguars rank 14th in yards per play on offense. 9th in red-zone trips per game. They also rank 30th in luck per Teamrankings.com. Womp.

Needless to say, the Jags have run extremely cold to start the season. They have more than shown the ability to move the ball but punching it in for six has been the glaring issue.

The Bills are 2-0 and are feeling great atop the AFC East. They are coming off a big Thursday night road victory against the Dolphins. We were on Buffalo as a great road underdog in that matchup, but the odds have shifted in Week 3.

The Jaguars catching 5.5 on the road is interesting, given the Arizona Cardinals two weeks ago were 6.5-point road underdogs at Buffalo. Two weeks in and those teams couldn't be viewed any differently in Week 3.

Like in Week 1, I have concerns about the Bills covering the 5.5-point spread because they consistently play down to their competition. It's why they've been such a bad bet as a home favorite since the start of last season.

Their defense continues to lose key pieces. The Bills will be without slot cornerback, Taron Johnson, in Week 3. Middle linebacker, Terrel Bernard is also expected to miss time after getting hurt in Week 2. The middle of the field is ripe for the taking.

The Bills are also a run-first team. 6th in raw rush rate and 18th in pass rate over expectation. I’m not sure that plays favorably into the Jaguars' weaknesses, which is as a pass defense (10th-worst) instead of run defense (16th) based on EPA. The Jaguars defense has allowed just four rushes of 10-plus yards this season. Had it not been some drops and overthrows in the Dolphins/Browns game, we could view this Jaguars secondary as one of the worst in the league. Josh Allen says hi.

I like the Jaguars catching points in this rare Monday Night Double-Header. The Bills are a bad bet as a home favorite, while Jacksonville has been profitable on the road (77%).

We saw Jacksonville beat Buffalo last season in London with an identical line (BUF -5.5) although with a bigger total at 48.5. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. had a monster game (136 rushing yards) which might be in store in Week 3. Buffalo's pass defense is top five in yards per attempt allowed, as they always look to limit downfield passing. But their rushing defense is suspect having already allowed 10 carries of 10-plus yards.

I also think that a lack of Christian Kirk has hurt the Jaguars offense. He's been a ghost for two straight games, but a favorable matchup in the slot points him (and Jacksonville's offense) in the right trajectory.

Trevor Lawrence on Kirk entering Week 3 per the Jaguarswire.

"He's a guy I trust a lot, and you're exactly right. I've got to get him going this week, and I've got a lot of trust and faith that it will get going this week and I'm not really concerned about that. I know it's going to happen."

For the total, I'd lean toward the over at 45.5 with my expectation being a better performance from the Jaguars offense.

Props:

Per DraftKings Sportsbook...

  • Dalton Kincaid has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills’ last two Monday games at Highmark Stadium. His three TDs all came on prime time (two Monday, one Thursday)
  • Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Bills’ last eight home games.
  • Khalil Shakir has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills’ last three home games.
  • Travis Etienne has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Jaguars’ last five games as road underdogs.

Etienne saw 26 carries the last time he played the Bills' defense. With Tank Bigsby nursing a shoulder injury, I'd expect the Jaguars to lean on their star RB yet again.

If there's any team that knows how to "stop" Gabe Davis...it's his old team. They limit big plays, which is Davis' bread-and-butter. After going OVER his receiving yards prop for two straight games, expect his numbers to normalize with a goose egg (or at least an UNDER) in Week 3.

Josh Allen’s good for a few TD passes in this game, it’s just a matter of which WR to pick. They’ve followed the “sum is greater than its parts” approach, without a true No. 1 WR. Still, it’s hard to ignore the impending TD regression coming for Dalton Kincaid. He still has the chance to be the No. 1 in this offense. I love the +1200 shot on him to score 1st.

My Picks:

Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sides:

  • The Bengals have won each of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
  • The Bengals have won 13 of their last 17 home games.
  • The Bengals are 9-5-1 ATS as home favorites. 12-4 straight up at home.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last six road games against AFC opponents.
  • Washington has covered as an underdog in fewer than 50% of their games since the start of 2023.
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last nine games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games.

Totals:

  • Six of the Bengals’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Bengals' last six games as favorites has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Commanders' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are a perfect 5-0 toward the under; when they allowed at least 20 points on defense, they are 11-3 toward the OVER.

Overall:

This HAS to be the right spot for the Bengals right? I mean, they can't blow TWO games against inferior opponents as more than TD favorites...at home?

I hope so, or else my season-long Bengals futures are in REAL trouble.

The fear of course is the back-door cover from rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Through two games, the Commanders rank 11th in EPA/pass attempt. Solid.

And the run game has been even more effective, ranking 4th in EPA/rush attempt. The Bengals' run defense won't have Sheldon Rankins on Monday Night Football. DT B.J. Hill also got hurt versus the Chiefs in Week 2 and will not play.

I don't need to cite stats to discuss how bad the Commanders defense is, especially against the pass. Daniel Jones looked good against them last week.

Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase need to build some positive momentum as a passing duo, and it's going to happen Monday night.

All in all, I was ready to defend the Bengals -7.5, but I think I prefer the game total going OVER 46.5 points. All the trends suggest the over with these two teams, as do the matchups heavily favoring both offenses on paper.

Props:

  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook...
  • Brian Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight road appearances.
  • Zack Moss has scored a touchdown in three of his last four appearances with his team as a home favorite.

After a slow start through the first two weeks of the 2023 season, Ja'Marr Chase exploded for 141 yards on 12 catches in Week 3. Rinse and repeat after a sluggish two games for Chase.

Robinson has seven targets in the last two games. RBs have played a big part in the Commanders passing game, and I don't think that changes in a pass-heavy game script for Monday Night.

Given that Joe Burrow might toss 4-plus TDs on Monday Night Football, I'd be aggressive attacking some of his receivers with longer shot odds for TDs. Trenton Irwin was targeted five times in the red zone (four times inside the 10) in Week 2. Rookie Jermaine Burton made the most of his two targets (5.6% target share), catching one for 47 yards. He is a deep threat and could easily take one to the house against this horrible Commanders defense.

These Bengals WRs have long-shot odds because the Bengals are expecting Tee Higgins to return. But given it's a hamstring injury, he could be on a snap count.

My Picks:

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