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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 4)

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Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 4 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 4's Monday Night Football Double-Header. In this special two-game MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchups as the fourth week of the NFL comes to a close. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to kick off your week.

Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Double-Header Primer

Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • The Titans have lost 11 of their last 12 road games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Titans have lost six of their last seven games.
  • The Titans are 0-9 ATS on the road since the start of 2023.
  • The Dolphins have lost five of their last six games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
  • Miami was below 20 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season, 1-6 overall since 2023.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted back to their old ways in back-to-back losses versus the Buffalo Bills/Seattle Seahawks.
  • The Dolphins have won 20 of their last 25 home games.

Totals:

  • Miami is 0-2 toward the over at home this season
  • Seven of the Dolphins’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 12-7-1 toward the under in their last 20 games.

Overall:

Skylar Thompson is out so we will see Tyler Huntley under center for the Dolphins.

The question marks across the Dolphins offense are a huge factor in this contest because it's a total unknown. We KNOW that Miami is littered with playmakers, but last week was an utter disaster. And what's also not being discussed is the loss of offensive tackle Terron Armstead. We've seen this offense underperform in the past without Armstead, which doesn't bode well for the QB downgrade Miami is already dealing with.

Miami hasn't had any answers so far without Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have won just two of their last 10 games without Tagovailoa as the starter (including playoffs).

Mike McDaniel hasn't shown yet that he can develop a winning offensive strategy without Tagovailoa. Last week was a poor showing. There was a severe lack of focus on Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane. Guys like Tanner Conner (two) and Alec Ingold (three) were seeing opportunities.

Per Next Gen Stats, with Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle at quarterback in Week 3, the Miami Dolphins utilized motion at the 3rd-lowest rate of the Mike McDaniel era (75%). Both quarterbacks targeted vertical routes on over 30% of their attempts, a mark that Tua Tagovailoa has not reached in any season of his career.

That game plan did not work, and I hope McDaniel gets back to the basics by quickly getting the ball into the hands of his top playmakers.

Or just run the football with Achane against a Titans defense that might not have stud DT Jeffery Simmons who has been listed as doubtful. Tennessee will also be down starting CB Chidobe Awuzie.

Alas, Miami's ground game has been hit or miss. It was great in Week 2, not so much in Week 1 or Week 3. Their offensive line hasn’t been bad (third in run-blocking grade per PFF), but the results haven’t been consistent.

The Titans’ run defense has been above average but far from elite after last week's showing. Miami can try to run the ball, but I'm not overly confident that it will be effective. But losing Simmons might be the straw that breaks the Titans’ run defense.

Part of the reason why the Titans have struggled so much on the road has been their poor offensive line. They looked like they make upgrades this offseason but so far it's not been great. No team has allowed a higher pressure rate (47%) per Next Gen Stats.

Given the struggles in pass protection, I'd project the Titans to deploy a heavier emphasis on the run.

They've had mixed success running the ball this season (like Miami). Per Next Gen Stats, the Titans rushing attack has been very boom or bust, averaging the 4th-fewest yards before contact per carry in the league (0.4) while also breaking designed runs for 10+ yards at the 7th-highest rate (14.5%).

Miami's run defense has allowed 0.6 yards before contact per carry (7th-fewest). However, it has also allowed 16.2% of opponents' designed runs to go for 10 or more yards (6th-highest). This disparity may be due to the Dolphins only converting on 50.3% of their first tackle opportunities, the third-lowest rate in the league.

Given Miami’s lack of consistency in stopping the run, the Titans' run game could be successful. Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both explosive rushers, and they will be able to take advantage.

All in all, it feels weird that the Dolphins are favored at home without much confidence in their starting quarterback. Then again, should a Will Levis-led 0-3 squad be a road favorite? You see the dilemma.

The pressure and the turnover-worthiness have just killed Levis and the Titans.

Tennessee's defense has been mostly solid - although last week's showing at home against the run was not great.

Levis's turnovers have been the story of the Titans' season. It's the main reason they are sitting at 0-3. But what gets lost in all the mistakes is that Levis has made a lot of great throws. He ranks 11th in completion rate over expectation (+4.3%). The Titans are vastly overdue to cover a spread on the road, and there's no better spot to do so than against a team that might be starting its third quarterback of the season.

As for the total, I like the over. I feel confident enough that Levis can deliver a few flash plays against Miami’s pass defense, which ranks 27th in yards per attempt. I've also laid out the case that the Dolphins' offense can't possibly (final last words) be worse than how they played on the road in Seattle. The Dolphins tend to play better at home, and I expect that to reflect in their offensive output.

Player Props:

Chase the air yards. Calvin Ridley only had one catch for nine yards on three targets in Week 3. But Ridley ranks 5th in air yards (355) this season. He has also already gone over 40.5 receiving yards in his previous two games while going over this mark in eight of his last ten games. The BP projections are HEAVY on the over as well, slating Ridley for 51 receiving yards. The line is too low for the Titans WR, who leads the team with a 17% target share.

I don't think Josh Whyle's Week 3 performance is a fluke. The Titans TE was talked up all offseason, and we saw it come to fruition with his last outing when he had 43 yards on five targets (14.7% target share). His routes have increased in three straight weeks.

Tyreek Hill's prop is just too low. I realize he's coming off back-to-back games with fewer than 40 receiving yards, but his sample size as a dominant producer is too large for his number to be this low. He had under 40 receiving yards one time in 2023's entirety. The same thing happened in 2022 (while Miami was juggling backup QBs).

My Picks:

Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sides:

  • The Seahawks have won each of their last six games against the Lions.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs.
  • The favorites have won 16 of the Seahawks' last 18 games.
  • Seattle is 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 games played (4-6-1 over the last 10 games).
  • The Lions are 16-8 ATS (67%) as a favorite.
  • The Lions are 70% ATS favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Detroit Lions are 11-6 ATS over their last 17 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Lions have won nine of their last 11 home games.

Totals:

  • Each of the Seahawks’ last six Monday games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Seahawks' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Lions' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions' last 21 home games has been 53.5 points; 71 percent (15/21) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Five of the Lions' last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Lions' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line

Overall:

This is a rematch of a fun Week 2 OT 37-31 victory for the Seahawks. It's also a rematch of Jared Goff against Mike Macdonald's defense that went HEAVILY in favor of Macdonald's Ravens by a score of 38-6 in Baltimore.

From the get-go, I've been heavily on the Lions’ side here as the more legitimate NFC contender. I truly don't believe the Seahawks’ defense has been tested, given they have faced the Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins through three games, which is the most cupcake schedule. They are still 1-2 ATS. And they were forced to go into overtime to beat the Patriots.

The Seahawks’ DL is also somewhat undermanned. Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams both left Week 3 with injuries.

But they aren't the only team dealing with injuries. Lions lost center Frank Ragnow. He's out this week. Tight end Sam LaPorta has a low-ankle sprain but has been practicing in a limited capacity.

Still, I have to side with my Lions. Historically, favorites have been great in the Seahawks’ games, and no team has been better ATS as a favorite (70%) than Dan Campbell's Lions since the start of 2023.

And when you look at the trenches in this matchup, I prefer the Lions to set the standard. You can't run the ball on Detroit - keep an eye out on the Seattle RB rushing props - and their rushing attack ranks inside the top 5 in several categories.

I understand the Lions offense hasn't been the elite juggernaut it was at times last season, but it's just been a lack of red-zone scores. They are still fourth in yards per game (Seattle ranks 8th).

If they finally end up converting, this game will turn into a shootout. So of course, we are going back to the OVER at Ford Field, even if we are 0-2 toward the under to start the year. Regression to the mean.

Because Seattle has the requisite firepower to keep pace if needed (like they did last season).

Per Next Gen Stats, Geno Smith has completed 73.5% of his passes against man coverage this season, making him one of two quarterbacks to have completed at least 70% of such passes (C.J. Stroud, 80.0%).

The Lions’ defense has played man coverage on 46% of opposing dropbacks this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Cornerback Carlton Davis has faced a league-high 15 targets as the nearest defender when playing man coverage, allowing a league-high 10 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown (zero passes defensed).

Player Props:

Jared Goff is tied for the NFL lead (Joe Burrow) in red-zone pass attempts with just one red-zone TD thrown (19). Williams was targeted four times in the red zone in Week 2 before seeing little involvement in Week 3. With Sam LaPorta potentially sidelined that should open up red-zone targets for Jamo. +1200 to score first on Monday Night Football.

I also love the over on Williams' receiving yards set at 42.5 yards. He went over in the first two games, and I think he will have a big role, given the injury to LaPorta. The BP projections have Williams slated for 49.3 yards, closer to Next Gen Stats' projection of 55.3 yards.

We've seen the big week from JSN, sandwiched between two very bad games. However, the matchup in the slot is great in Week 4. Per FantasyPros Derek Brown, passing attacks have highly targeted the slot against Detroit. The Lions have defended the second-most targets to slot receivers and allowed the third-most receiving yards to the position.

My Picks:

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