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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 7)

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Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 7 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 7's Monday Night Football Double-Header. In this special two-game MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchups as the seventh week of the NFL comes to a close. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to kick off your week.

Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Double-Header Primer

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides:

  • The Buccaneers have won six of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in six of their last nine games.
  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last five games following a loss.
  • Tampa Bay is 6-2-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last nine games.
  • The underdogs have won seven of the last 13 Buccaneers' games.
  • The underdogs have won the first half in each of the Buccaneers’ last five games.
  • The Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • Baltimore is 13-5 on the money line as home favorites. But just 8-11 ATS as home favorites.
  • Baltimore is 13-5 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 9-4 ATS as road favorites.

Totals:

  • Tampa Bay is 4-2 O/U this season (2-1 at home, averaging 46.3 points per game).
  • On defense, they allowed just 19.5 points per game (9th) before the Falcons' eruption game in Week 5.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 37 points total at home since 2023 (3-8 record toward the over).
  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (seven of their last 10), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 5-1 toward the over this season.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in eight of the last 11 games (nine of the previous 14).
  • Each of the Ravens’ last four road games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

We kick off the first half of another Monday Night Football double-header with the Ravens visiting the Buccaneers as 3.5-point road favorites.

The matchup is between two of the better teams in the NFL, with a lot of strength versus strength angles to consider. Baltimore's rushing attack has been nearly unstoppable, but Tampa Bay's run defense is also one of the best in the NFL.

Per Next Gen Stats, The Ravens have generated +15.4 rushing EPA on designed runs against stacked boxes (8+ defenders), the most through 6 weeks in the NGS era.

They are also generating +0.33 EPA per carry on such rushing attempts, the highest mark through 6 weeks since 2021 (SEA, +0.38; CLE, +0.34). The Buccaneers stack the box on 32.8% of opposing designed runs, the second-highest rate in the league. They have allowed +0.07 EPA per carry when stacking the box, the 5th-most in the NFL.

The Buccaneers have also allowed four different running backs to gain 20 or more rushing yards over expected against them this season, tied for the most by any defense in the league.

Ergo, the advantage goes to Derrick Henry and the Ravens’ ground game. Although I don't think it's nearly as big of a mismatch as Lamar Jackson passing against the Buccaneers secondary. The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

As for the Tampa Bay offense, they have to pass to stay in this contest. Baltimore has a no-run defense, making it easy for the Buccaneers to enter this game with the mindset of throwing the ball ALL over the yard. Losing Mike Evans potentially with a hamstring injury does create some concerns though about whether Mayfield with have enough to work with to keep pace. Evans is expected to play but might be limited.

But given that Mayfield's operating mostly as a short thrower, his WRs need to create YAC to move the ball. Per Next Gen Stats, of Mayfield's 1,489 total passing yards, 65.0% of them have come after the catch this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL and a career-high by 10% (2022, 55.0%). Chris Godwin has generated a league-high 335 yards after the catch this season, as well as the 3rd-most YAC over expected (+112). The Ravens’ defense has allowed the 3rd-most yards after catch over expected (+154) this season after only allowing +195 YACOE in all of 2023.

But the Ravens also rank fifth in fewest missed tackles on defense (28). We might see some regression kick in for the Buccaneers YAC in this game, putting them in a tougher spot against the Ravens.

Early in the week, it seemed obvious that Tampa Bay catching points at home in a projected shootout was the side to back. Baker Mayfield is great as an underdog. But Baltimore ATS on the road is 13-5 (72%)-69% as road favorites in their last 13 games.

As for the total, it's very high at 50. But it's in line with my projection so I don't see much value in the play. When in doubt take the under in a prime-time spot.  Buccaneers' home games typically shade toward the under but I hardly feel confident about that with the over streak the Ravens are on. The lowest total game they've played in this season has been 45 points. Even if this game goes under the total, it will be a sweat undoubtedly.

Props:

Baker Mayfield has thrown two or more touchdowns in eight of the Buccaneers’ last nine games as underdogs, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Per Next Gen Stats, Buccaneers running backs have generated +0.18 EPA per carry (3rd-most) and +75 rushing yards over expected (5th-most) on designed runs out of shotgun this season.

Buccaneers RBs average 7.5 yards per carry on such rushes, over a full yard more than the next closest team (JAX, 6.3). The Ravens have allowed a success rate of 28.6% to opposing running backs on designed run attempts out of shotgun, the 2nd-lowest rate in the league. Opposing backs have generated -0.29 on such attempts against the Ravens, the 3rd-fewest of any defense.

Both of these teams have allowed a lot of production to opposing tight ends. Baltimore ranks first or second in yards, targets, and receptions to TEs. The Buccaneers rank fifth in total yards allowed to tight ends but haven't allowed any TD scores. Same for the Ravens - most receiving yards allowed to tight ends but zero TDs. Regression works in mysterious ways. Look for tight-end scores on Monday Night.

Isaiah Likely added 27 receiving yards on two receptions (four targets, 16% Target share) in Week 6. Likely was targeted once in the red zone but did not make a catch.

The Ravens’ tight end routes were an even split. Likely ran a route on 53% of the dropbacks to Mark Andrew's 50% of the dropbacks. Andrews' stringing together back-to-back weeks has been excellent. But the overall usage still favors Likely, who still leads the Ravens with six red-zone targets.

Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton also has six red-zone targets this season. He's also gone over 38.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Every single tight end that the Ravens have faced this season has gone over their receiving yards total, with all but one surpassing at least 37 yards.

My Picks:

Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

Sides:

  • The Chargers are 3-2 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have scored first in each of their last five games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last seven road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last nine games against AFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Six of the Chargers' last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Chargers' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 4-1 toward the under this season.
  • Eight of the Chargers' last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Chargers’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Cardinals' last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line (2-1 O/U) this season, averaging 46.7 points per game.

Overall:

One of the most glaring trends regarding the Arizona Cardinals: They are 1-13 as home underdogs on the money line. ATS (6-8) is not nearly as glaring, but that's considering spreads fewer than two points like this matchup. Now, part of the Cardinals trend includes non-Kyler Murray-led Cardinals teams, but still, Arizona has shown almost zero signs of life as home underdogs, and that's considering Murray has been a great quarterback ATS as an underdog historically. His 62% ATS as an underdog ranks fourth among active QBs behind just Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson.

Part of this has been because it's been shootout after shootout in the desert. Arizona's defense continues to struggle - particularly against the run, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game.

This is problematic against the Chargers and their offense that ranks fifth lowest in pass rate over expectation (-7.7%).

The Cardinals also struggle to generate pressure – the fourth-lowest pressure rate (26.9%) after six weeks - creating more opportunities for the Chargers to pick up chunk gains through the air on Monday night. Per Next Gen Stats, Justin Herbert has completed 59 of his 78 attempts for 614 yards and four touchdowns when not pressured this season, recording a 115.0 passer rating (5th-highest in NFL). When facing pressure, Herbert's passer rating has dropped to 62.5 (8th-lowest).

Meanwhile, Arizona's offense struggled last week, scoring just 13 points in Green Bay. However, the Cardinals' offensive woes might be a tab bit overblown. They lost their No. 1 WR early in the game.

On the year, they are still 10th in yards per play, 14th in EPA/play, and 7th in rushing yards per game. It’s an average offense at worst, in my estimation.

Their strength has been with their run game, and it's possible they find success on the ground versus the Chargers. Per Next Gen Stats, The Chargers have utilized six or fewer defenders in the box on 82.2% of their defensive snaps this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

Despite this, the Chargers have allowed opponents to generate the 5th-fewest rushing yards over expected on designed runs against a light box (-36), and the fewest EPA per carry on such runs (-0.43). The Cardinals are one of only four teams in the NFL with multiple running backs that have generated at least +20 RYOE on runs against light boxes (Emari Demercado: +27 and James Conner: +24). Cardinals running backs have generated +0.14 per carry on such runs this season, 3rd-most in the NFL.

James Conner has at least 60.5 rushing yards in seven of his last ten home games. Three of the last four RBs the Chargers have faced have rushed for 64-plus yards.

The Chargers defense is SOLID, but Arizona's ground game might find success against some of these lighter boxes.

Still, L.A.'s defense ranks sixth overall in the fewest EPA/play allowed and top 8 in the fewest passing (8th) and rushing yards (6th) allowed.

It's no layup spot for Arizona's offense, although it does look like they will at least have wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. back after he left Week 6's game with a concussion.

I'm confident that the Chargers offense will score, but Arizona is a bit of a mystery box. We've seen the Chargers defense allow big yardage to some QBs (Bo Nix, 61 yards) and almost no yardage to others (Justin Fields, 6 yards). But in the aggregate, the Chargers have been bad against QB scrambles.

At their core, we know that Arizona wants to run the ball - seventh-lowest pass rate over expectation - and that's their clearest path to victory. They are 3-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season. I'm torn on the sides here, but I am leaning toward the over in this matchup at 44. There's no better cure for the Chargers' long streak of unders than a game played in Arizona.

Props:

J.K. Dobbins has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite.

The Chargers have scored first in each of their last five games.

Per Next Gen Stats, Trey McBride has caught 27 of his 31 targets against zone coverage this season, recording 265 yards (2nd-most among tight ends) and +16.3 receiving EPA (most).

McBride has also recorded a 31.6% target rate against zone coverage this season, up from his 21.9% target rate against man coverage. The Chargers defense has played zone coverage on 84.3% of opposing dropbacks this season (third-highest in the NFL) but has allowed just 5.9 yards per attempt to tight ends when doing so (sixth-fewest).

The Cardinals TE also leads the team in red-zone targets without a receiving touchdown this season.

Ladd McConkey was targeted eight times, catching four passes for 43 yards, accounting for a 26% target share and 97 air yards in Week 6. Fell just short of a TD with two targets inside the 10-yard line.

McConkey ran a route on 76% of the dropbacks despite suffering a head injury during the game. He does look to be okay, though, after returning to action. Assuming he is healthy, McConkey remains an anytime TD target. 27% target share on the season. Top 12 on the season. Great matchup on deck versus Arizona, who just roasted from the slot for multiple TDs against the Packers. Arizona is allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs (8th-highest percentage to slot WRs).

My Picks:

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