NFL Monday Night Football Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Eagles vs. Commanders (Week 10)
This week, the Eagles and Commanders will square off on Monday Night Football in Philadelphia. This will be a big game for both teams – Philadelphia hopes to maintain its spot on top of the NFC standings and its perfect record, while Washington hopes to get back to .500 and stay in the playoff race.
The Eagles come into the game as 10.5-point favorites. The books think they should be able to win this game without too much trouble, which should open up some interesting value in prop markets for this game. Below is a 4 leg parlay on Draftkings that I’ll be playing for Monday’s game.
Leg 1: Eagles Halftime/Full-time Winner (-210)
I tried playing Eagles Halftime/Full-Time last time they were big favorites against Houston, and the Texans scored on the last drive of the first half to tie the score. Despite this loss, I’m returning to Eagles Halftime/Full Time as great exposure to the thesis that the Eagles will win this game handily. With the spread sitting at a full 10.5 points and the normal moneyline play sitting at -500, I don’t see much value in either play.
The Eagles have been the best first-half team in the NFL this season. They had led at halftime in every game this season up until last week’s first-half tie against Houston. Their 20.1 first-half points scored per game is first in the NFL by 3.8 points, while their 9.0 first-half points allowed is the 7th-best mark in the league.
Washington, on the other hand, has struggled in the first half this year. The Commanders have scored just 6.0 first-half points per game, the 2nd lowest mark in the league. Their first-half defense ranks in the bottom half of the NFL as well.
I expect the Eagles to get a lead in the first half and sit on that one in the second half.
Leg 2: AJ Brown over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
AJ Brown has had an exceptional first season in Philadelphia. In eight games this year, he’s posted 43 catches for 718 yards and six TDs. His consistency and big play ability are a big reason why QB Jalen Hurts has leveled up into a legit MVP candidate this season.
Brown should have an exceptional matchup against the Commanders’ defense on Monday night. Washington allows 174 yards per game to opposing WRs, the 7th most in the NFL. The Commanders’ 14.5 yards per catch allowed to opposing WRs ranks as 3rd worst in the league. After trading away CB William Jackson, the Commanders’ secondary is thin coming into the game against the Eagles’ exceptional WR group.
I expect AJ Brown to get looks early and often on Monday night, and I think he should have no problem breaking the 70-yard threshold.
Leg 3: Dallas Goedert under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-155)
While Washington’s defense has been bad against opposing WRs, it has actually been very good against opposing TEs. The Commanders allow 3.67 receptions for 33.0 yards to opposing TEs per game – these marks rank 6th and 3rd best in the NFL, respectively.
Dallas Goedert is having a great year for the Eagles and went over 100 receiving yards in their last game. Despite this, I don’t expect him to maintain this level of production against Washington. A big reason for this is the comparative weakness of the Commanders’ defense against WRs. The Eagles are great at attacking the biggest weakness of their opponents – I think they’ll focus their passing game around their WRs.
If the Eagles get up big, they likely won’t throw the ball too often. I think the throws they make will be aimed at attacking Washington’s weak secondary rather than the intermediate part of the field, where Goedert does his best work.
Leg 4: Taylor Heinicke under 244.5 Pass Yards (-215)
Since Taylor Heinecke has taken over for Washington, he’s done a nice job. Heinicke is 2-1 with a close loss to the Vikings last week and has completed 63% of his passes for 5 TDs and 629 yards. Despite the success he’s seen, I don’t think he’ll be able to put up big yardage totals against the Eagles.
Philadelphia allows just 199 passing yards per game to opposing QBs – the third-lowest mark in the NFL. They’ve had one of the best secondaries in the NFL this season, headlined by star CB Darius Slay. Heinicke has been safely under 245 yards in two of his three starts this season, with the third game being a huge comeback over the Colts.
I expect Philadelphia to gameplan well against Heinicke and hold him under 244.5 pass yards, even if he does get high volume in a game where he’s trailing.
Parlay Odds: +525
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