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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: Monday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 6)

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Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 6 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 6's Monday Night Football matchup between the Jets and Bills. In this special "island" MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated AFC East showdown as the sixth week of the NFL comes to a close. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to cap off your week.

Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football. Upset special? You bet!

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Monday Night Football Primer

 Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Sides:

  • The Bills have won nine of their last 12 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in four of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 13-6 as a favorite since the start of last season. But they are just 8-11 ATS as a favorite.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 20 games.
  • Josh Allen is sub-55% ATS as a favorite per BetMGM.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 16 games. 2-3 ATS this season.
  • The underdogs have won eight of the last 10 games between the Bills and Jets at MetLife Stadium.

Totals:

  • Five of the Bills' last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Bills' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line. (14 of their last 19 road games per Covers.com)
  • Thirteen of the Jets' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, eleven of the Jets’ last 12 games against AFC East opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Dead-cat bounce. We see this constantly, with teams rallying after firing a head coach or key coordinator. Just last season, we had three coaches fired mid-year: Josh McDaniels, Frank Reich, and Brandon Staley. Key offensive coordinators who also were released during the season include Ken Dorsey and Matt Canada. In the games played right after the head coach firings, the teams went 3-0 ATS and 1-2 straight up. After the two OC fires, the teams went 2-0 ATS and straight up.

Teams are now 17-21 straight up after firing their head coach and 22-16 ATS (58%).

I am fully expecting a bounce-back effort from the Jets in this spot. Offensively, I think they get back to the basics, but running the football against a defense that ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per attempt. New play-caller Todd Downing is hardly an upgrade from Nathaniel Hackett, but the man knows how to call run plays.

He was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee for two seasons, during which time the team posted a -9% pass rate over expectations. He has also spoken about building an offense that reflects the physicality of new interim head coach and former DC Jeff Ulbrich.

Feed Breece Hall, and great things will happen. The last time Hall faced Buffalo at home, he rushed for 127 yards.

I don't think a banged-up Aaron Rodgers wants to continue taking hit after hit with all the dropbacks we have seen in the last two games.

I will also say that the Jets' offensive woes that last two weeks are being overblown to an extent, given they have faced arguably the NFL's two best defenses between the Broncos and Vikings. The Bills are not either of those defensive units - 13th in yards per game allowed.

The Bills defense does its best to limit big downfield plays, but Rodgers has no interest in waiting to attack downfield. Per Next Gen Stats, Rodgers has gotten rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds on 56.6% of passes this season, the 4th-highest rate among quarterbacks and his highest rate since 2017 (56.7%).

Correspondingly, most of Rodgers' passing yards have come from quick passes (58.6%), the second-highest rate in the league (Justin Herbert, 59.5%). The Bills defense has allowed 11 explosive plays (15+ yards) off quick passes this season, tied for the most in the NFL.

Buffalo's offense is running out of weapons for Josh Allen. Khalil Shakir was severely missed last week and is questionable on Monday night. And now running back James Cook is questionable with a toe injury as well. The Jets' weakness on defense is against the run, and Buffalo's RBs are Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis.

New York has the defense to contain Allen, but he doesn't have the current weaponry to overcome it.

Per Next Gen Stats, Allen leads all qualified passers with +0.47 EPA generated per dropback on quick pass attempts this season (under 2.5 seconds).

Allen has also averaged the 4th-most yards per attempt (7.2) on quick passes. The Jets defense has been stingy against opposing quick pass attempts this season, allowing the lowest yards per attempt in the league (4.3). The Jets defense has also allowed a league-low success rate of 36.6% on quick pass attempts.

Similar to the Ravens, the Bills sometimes play down to their competition. Even in an AFC East showdown, I don't think we are going to be their best effort. I'm bearish taking the Jets on the ML because Allen has the ability to take over any game with his rushing. But all the optics of this matchup back the Jets as underdogs at home.

As for the game total, the under seems like an obvious play. Unless we see the Jets’ offense EXPLODE from a dead-cat bounce, it's likely this game will finish under 41 points.

Props:

  • Breece Hall has scored at least one touchdown in six of the Jets’ last eight games. The last two games were against the two best defenses in the NFL. Go figure. Everything about this matchup screams Hall explosion game. Take all the rushing/receiving overs and all the TD props.
  • Buffalo ranks last in yards, catches, and targets to running backs this season.
  • Curtis Samuel failed to take advantage of Khalil Shakir's absence in Week 5, with only one catch for no gain on four targets. Allen definitely missed Shakir as his primary underneath and slot option. However, Samuel remained involved in a lot of designed targets in the red zone. If Shakir is out again he will be schemed touches if the Bills close in on scoring in the red zone.

My Picks:

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