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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (Conference Championships)

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Last week, there were plenty of longshot bets that hit. In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions game, Craig Reynolds scored a touchdown and Josh Reynolds scored the game’s first touchdown at +1800. Steven Sims returned a punt for a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen ran for two touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Here are the best longshot bets for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

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NFL Best Conference Championships Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Gus Edwards 2+ Touchdowns (+850)

Last week, Edwards was outcarried 13-10 by Justice Hill. Hill ended the game with 66 yards, while Edwards had just 40. While the Ravens have a clear advantage with their rushing attack this week, we don't recommend taking either of these players to have a huge day on the ground. Not only are they competing with each other, but they're also competing with Lamar Jackson for carries.

However, in the red zone, Edwards is THE guy. Even though Jackson rushed for two touchdowns last week, that's far from the norm. The performance marked just the fourth game this season where Jackson found the end zone. Meanwhile, Edwards has scored in nine games and he's scored multiple touchdowns in three. 

The Chiefs are only allowing 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game, however, the Ravens are averaging 1.6 scores on the ground per contest. In a battle of strength vs. strength, it will be the Ravens who come out on top. Their numbers aren't fake, while the Chiefs' numbers are inflated because of the game script they've been in. Edwards will benefit the most from this.

Brock Purdy Over 340.5 Passing Yards (+500)

Purdy has thrown for over 340 yards twice this season. Last week's performance against the Green Bay Packers will leave many bettors fading him this week, but he could be in for his biggest performance of the year.

The Lions allow a lot of passing yards. In the postseason, they've allowed both quarterbacks they've faced to throw for over 340 yards against them. It's the style of defense they play, and it's unlikely to change before Sunday's NFC Championship Game.

Christian McCaffrey could take away some of Purdy's yards by running the ball against the Lions. However, the Lions are allowing just 78.5 yards per game in the postseason, and including postseason and regular season games, they're allowing just 3.8 yards per carry this season. Purdy will take advantage of the Lions' secondary and become the sixth consecutive quarterback to throw for over 340 yards against the Lions.

George Kittle First Touchdown Scorer (+900)

If the Lions get the ball first, there is a good chance that the 49ers' defense stops them from getting into the end zone. If the 49ers get the ball first, there's a great chance they will go down the field and score a touchdown like so many teams have done against the Lions this season. Therefore, we've narrowed down the first touchdown scorer to a 49er.

Kittle offers great odds, and he's coming off a solid performance in which he caught four passes for 81 yards and a touchdown. Though Kittle only has six touchdowns this season, the Lions have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this season. 

The Lions are allowing 11.3 yards per completion to tight ends which means that Kittle could score from outside of the red zone. The 49ers should move the ball with relative ease in this game. With the Lions' run defense preventing McCaffrey from getting into the end zone, Kittle becomes a much bigger part of the scheme near the goal line.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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