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NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets: Giants vs. Panthers (Munich)

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Pack your bags and get ready to take a country road all the way to Munich for an exciting Week 10 matchup overseas! I’m Andrew Erickson, and this is your ultimate guide to betting on the highly anticipated clash between the New York Giants and the Carolina Panthers in Germany.

This international showdown brings a fresh twist to the NFL season, with both teams donning their game faces in a stadium where lederhosen and Bavarian cheers will be as plentiful as the action on the field. The Giants and Panthers each have something to prove as they look to light up the scoreboard and gain momentum in front of a spirited German crowd.

From expert analysis of the spread and total to the top player props to target, I've got all the insights you need to make the most of this unique showdown. So dust off your lederhosen, pour yourself a stein, and settle in for an early afternoon of football with a twist.

Let’s dive into my top picks and betting insights for this must-watch Giants vs. Panthers battle in Munich!

Week 10 International Series Betting Primer

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (Germany)

Sides:

  • New York is 13-7 ATS on the road (65%).
  • The Giants are 9-8 ATS over their last 17 games.
  • The Giants have lost nine of their last 13 road games.
  • The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • The Giants are 8-13 ATS as road underdogs.
  • They are 1-4 ATS at home this season.
  • The road team has covered the spread in five of the Giants’ last seven games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in each of the Giants’ last four road games.
  • The Giants are 12-7-1 at home ATS and as home underdogs, ATS (9-5-1).
  • New York is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 divisional matchups.
  • The Giants have lost each of their last five home games.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 19 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 18 games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • The Giants are 8-10 toward the over in the last 18 games
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in eight of their last 15 games.
  • Seven of the Giants’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Giants' last 13 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Panthers’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers’ last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers’ last 12 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

We kick off Sunday's NFL slate in Munich, Germany, in the final game of the international series. Traditionally, these international games side with the favorites and the game total under.

The favorites are 6-2 straight up and ATS internationally since last season. The only “upset” last season was the Jaguars defeating the Bills after Jacksonville had already spent a week in London playing back-to-back games. After the Jaguars opened up as underdogs last week, they lost as favorites. They beat (and covered) against the Patriots as favorites.

In the last seven games, the under is 6-1 in the international series.

So, matchups aside, the "blind" bet in this contest is Giants -5.5 (moved since a -4.5 line) and under on a 41.5-point total.

Given that these two bad teams are both coming off impromptu "overs," this seems like a layup spot to take yet another international under.

This is also one of the easiest games to project from the Giants’ offense: Run the ball.

Last week against the Commanders, New York posted a -10% pass rate over expectation. They are going to feed Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary over and over and over again against the league's worst-run defense. The Saints' pass rate over expectation last week against the Panthers? -16%.

I'd also expect Carolina to run at a decent clip. According to Next Gen Stats, the Giants have allowed the 5th-most yards before contact to running backs (314), contacting running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 43.1% of rushes, just above league average (42.4%). Chuba Hubbard has been contacted behind the scrimmage at the 2nd-lowest rate among running backs (min. 50 carries), accumulating a career-high 211 yards before contact.

Still, that won't help them score TDs against an overall underrated Giants defense (5th in red zone defense).

Don't be swayed by the Panthers win over the Saints. Penalties killed their odds in the second half and sealed their fate back in Week 9.

As much as I’d like this to be a fun game for the Germans…Daniel Jones vs. Bryce Young just ain’t it, fam.

Props:

Tyrone Tracy Jr. was the lead rusher in Week 9, carrying the ball 16 times for 66 yards (4.1 YPC), with a longest rush of 10 yards: 3 red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, one red zone target, 0 receiving TDs. Tracy Jr. ran a route on 52% of dropbacks and led the backfield with a 72% snap rate.

No team has allowed more TDs to RBs than the Panthers this season (15). Plus money? Please and thank you. Don't hate the idea of longer shots with Devin Singletary either, given how much rushing I expect in this matchup. Singletary's odds are +260 for any time TD.

BettingPros' 3-leg Same-Game Parlay: Malik Nabers under receiving yards, Tyrone Tracy over rushing yards, Daniel Jones under passing yards.  +729 odds. Correlation for the win.

My Picks:

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