NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Injuries can short-circuit an over bet on a player prop, and so it was last week with the over on Marvin Harrison's receiving yardage.
I thought 55.5 receiving yards would be an easy over for Harrison against the Packers, but the young pass-catching prodigy sustained a concussion early in the game before catching a single pass.
Bad luck, yes, but it was still a good week overall. Last week's selections went 8-2 and snapped a three-week cold streak. The overall season prop record is still disappointing, but at least it's back above .500. Let's keep the good times rolling.
Before we get to this week's selections, a quick recap of Week 6 …
The wins: Deshaun Watson under 189.5 passing yards, Drake Maye over 27.5 rushing yards, Derrick Henry over 82.5 rushing yards, Tyler Allgeier over 37.5 rushing yards, Ja'Lynn Polk under 25.5 receiving yards, Chris Godwin over 63.5 receiving yards, George Pickens over 46.5 receiving yards, KaVontae Turpin under 29.5 receiving yards
The losses: D’Andre Swift under 53.5 rushing yards, Marvin Harrison Jr. over 55.5 receiving yards
Fitz’s Favorite Week 7 NFL Player Prop Bets
- Last week: 8-2
- Season record: 31-30
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Thursday, Oct. 17.
Geno Smith OVER 265.5 passing yards
Geno leads the league in passing yardage, averaging 296.3 passing yards and 41.8 pass attempts per game. He's topped this number in five straight games, and Seahawks-Falcons profiles as a shootout. The Seahawks' offense has operated at the second-fastest pace in the league, the Falcons’ at the third-fastest. Atlanta's pass defense ranks 21st in DVOA, and the Falcons' anemic pass rush ranks 30th in pressure rate. Geno should go flying over this number.
Aidan O'Connell OVER 219.5 passing yards
Not gonna lie: I have concerns that the Raiders' lack of pass-catching firepower in the wake of the Davante Adams trade could derail this bet. But there are some compelling reasons to like the over. The Rams' pass defense is among the NFL's worst, giving up a league-high 9.0 yards per pass attempt, a 69.5% completion rate and a league-worst 117.2 opponent passer rating. The bar here is low, and O'Connell has a good chance to clear it against such a poor pass defense.
Drake Maye OVER 27.5 rushing yards
Last week, I said that Drake Maye over 27.5 rushing yards was my favorite player prop of the season to date. This might be my second-favorite. Maye ran five times for 38 yards in his first NFL start. He was an aggressive runner during his college career at North Carolina, averaging 11.4 rushing attempts per game. As I mentioned last week, rookie quarterbacks getting their first looks at NFL defenses are likely to be confused by what they see, and the mobile ones will often respond by just tucking the ball away and running. I love the over here, and it doesn't hurt that Maye will be facing a Jaguars defense that has given up the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
Bijan Robinson OVER 62.5 rushing yards
Bijan gets a date with a Seattle defense that has been getting steamrolled by opposing running backs in recent weeks. Rookie Tyrone Tracy had 18 carries for 129 yards against the Seahawks in Week 5, and 49ers RBs Jordan Mason, Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor combined for 24 carries for 188 yards against the Seahawks last week. Seattle is giving up 124.5 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry to running backs. Bijan carried 15 times for 95 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Panthers and now gets another soft matchup. Slam the over.
Evan Engram OVER 46.5 receiving yards
Engram is the security blanket for Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. Last week, Engram returned from a hamstring injury and immediately piled up 10 catches for 102 yards. The veteran tight end has cleared this number in seven of his last nine games dating back to last November, averaging 66.1 yards per game over that stretch. Engram faces a Patriots defense that has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Johnny Mundt UNDER 16.5 receiving yards
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet likes this one, projecting Mundt for 11.3 receiving yards. Mundt has fallen short of this number in 4-of-5 games this season. He beat it with 31 yards against the Jets in Week 5 because he had a season-long 20-yard catch. But Mundt is averaging just 8.3 yards per catch on the season and hasn't recorded more than two receptions in a game. His single-game high in targets this year is three. Mundt faces a Lions defense that has allowed only 150 receiving yards to tight ends in five games.
DeVonta Smith OVER 57.5 receiving yards
Smith has cleared this number in all four games he's played this season and is averaging 75.8 yards per contest. The Eagles face the Giants on Sunday, and Smith has had at least 64 receiving yards in each of his last four games against the Giants dating back to 2021. Giants edge rusher Brian Burns and DT Dexter Lawrence are dealing with injuries and are both questionable to play. If one of both of them are out, the Giants' pass rush will be greatly diminished, and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts should have plenty of time to find open receivers.
Ray-Ray McCloud UNDER 38.5 receiving yards
Here's another bet the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet likes. McCloud has topped this number in 4-of-6 games this season, but he's taken advantage of some soft individual matchups. He won't have one this weekend. McCloud will be running a lot of his routes into the coverage of Seahawks slot corner Devon Witherspoon, a 2023 first-round draft pick whom PFF has graded 18th-best out of 100 graded cornerbacks. Fade McCloud this week.
Josh Downs UNDER 49.5 receiving yards
QB Anthony Richardson is expected to start for the Colts after missing the last two games with a hip injury. With Joe Flacco quarterbacking the Colts for the last two games, Downs had 16 catches on 21 targets, although he didn't hit 70 yards in either game and averaged just 8.4 yards per catch. With Richardson directing the Indianapolis offense, expect a drop in passing volume and passing efficiency. I think the under is a strong percentage play here.
Diontae Johnson OVER 63.5 receiving yards
Johnson has cleared this number in three of the four games QB Andy Dalton has started for the Panthers. Johnson has averaged 10.8 targets, 6.0 catches and 76.5 receiving yards in those contests. He'll be facing a Washington pass defense that ranks 29th in DVOA and has given up 169.7 receiving yards per game to WRs. Ravens WR Zay Flowers smoked the Commanders with 132 receiving yards last week.