NFL Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 4 (2024)
Week 3 was rough. I went 3-7 with last week's selections. Woof.
The occasional bad week is inevitable. All we can do is pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, hitch up our britches and get back to work.
Before we get into the Week 4 plays, a quick recap of Week 3 …
The wins: Ty Chandler under 34.5 rushing yards, Derrick Henry over 66.5 rushing yards, Ladd McConkey over 37.5 receiving yards
The losses: Derek Carr over 234.5 passing yards, Gardner Minshew over 218.5 passing yards, Josh Jacobs over 77.5 rushing yards, Kyren Williams under 65.5 rushing yards, Brian Robinson Jr. over 52.5 rushing yards, Cade Otton under 22.5 receiving yards, Brock Bowers over 44.5 receiving yards
Last week: 3-7
Season record: 17-16
Fitz's Favorite Week 4 Player Prop Bets
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Sept. 26.
Jordan Love UNDER 237.5 passing yards
Love is expected to return from the torn MCL he sustained in the Packers' Week 1 loss to the Eagles in Brazil. He'll face a fierce Vikings pass defense that ranks second in DVOA and has the sixth-lowest opponent passer rating (71.5). Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores excels at dialing up pressure in creative ways. Opposing quarterbacks can't be sure where the pass rush will come from.
With Love unlikely to have his usual mobility so soon after the knee injury, expect Packers head coach Matt LaFleur to call a lot of running plays to keep Minnesota pass rushers from pinning their ears back and going after Green Bay's franchise quarterback.
Love will probably throw fewer than 35 passes, and he might be a bit rusty after the unwanted layoff. I'm not expecting him to put up a big yardage total.
D'Andre Swift UNDER 35.5 rushing yards
Chicago's running game has been atrocious, ranking 31st in DVOA. Swift has been held to 30 or fewer yards in all three games this season, averaging 1.8 yards per carry.
Last week, the Bears faced a Colts defense that had given up 159 rushing yards to Houston's Joe Mixon in Week 1 and 151 rushing yards to Green Bay's Josh Jacobs in Week 2. Swift had 13 carries for 20 yards against Indianapolis. Yikes.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that the Bears plan to give backup RB Roschon Johnson "an extended look" this week. Fade Swift.
Rachaad White UNDER 38.5 rushing yards
Speaking of running backs who could lose carries to their backups, Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles has said that rookie RB Bucky Irving has earned more playing time. And for good reason. Irving is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. White, the starter, is averaging 2.1 yards per carry.
White had 31 rushing yards in Week 1. He's been held under 20 rushing yards in each of the last two weeks. White played 42 offensive snaps last week but had only six rushing attempts. That's a good indication that the Buccaneers know handing the ball off to White is a losing proposition.
The Buccaneers are facing a mediocre Eagles run defense, but it won't matter. White won't get enough carries to threaten this number.
Chuba Hubbard OVER 80.5 rushing + receiving yards
The Panthers’ offense came to life last week with Andy Dalton taking over at quarterback, rolling up 437 yards in a road win over the Raiders. Hubbard had 21 carries for 114 yards, along with five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown. That's glorious usage.
This week, Hubbard and the Panthers face a soft Bengals defense that ranks 24th in defensive DVOA and 17th in DVOA against the run. Hubbard should be a busy man again this week, and I think he'll cruise past this number.
Justin Jefferson OVER 79.5 receiving yards
The Vikings' star receiver has topped this number in two of his three games this season. He had 59 yards in Minnesota's Week 1 blowout of the Giants and might have had a bigger day if Vikings QB Sam Darnold had needed to throw more than 24 passes. Jefferson torched the 49ers for 133 yards in Week 2 and had 81 yards against the Texans in another blowout victory.
The two lopsided Minnesota victories have kept Jefferson's yardage totals artificially low, and perhaps that's why we're getting such good value with this easily reachable number. Expect Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell to make Jefferson a focal point of his playcalling in a big divisional game against the Packers.
Stefon Diggs OVER 60.5 receiving yards
Texans receiver Tank Dell is out this week with injuries to his wrist and ribs. Dell's absence prunes the Texans' target tree a bit and should funnel a few more targets to Diggs and Nico Collins.
Houston will face a struggling Jacksonville pass defense that ranks 30th in DVOA. The Jaguars have given up 537 receiving yards to wide receivers, the sixth-highest total in the league.
Diggs is coming off a 10-catch, 94-yard game against the Vikings. Expect him to be busy again this week.
Darnell Mooney UNDER 40.5 receiving yards
Mooney has cleared this total in each of his last two games, but I don't think he gets there this week. The Falcons face the Saints, and Mooney is likely to see a lot of CB Marshon Lattimore, who's allowing just 0.48 yards per route run into his coverage.
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins hasn't been attacking downfield, averaging just 6.4 intended air yards per pass attempt. Mooney has big-play ability, but Cousins hasn't been throwing the deep ball. I don't think Mooney reaches 40 yards this week.
Marvin Harrison OVER 72.5 receiving yards
After a quiet Week 1, the Cardinals' prized rookie has rolled up 194 yards over his last two games. Harrison could be especially busy this week since the Cardinals will be without TE Trey McBride, who sustained a concussion last week and hasn't returned to practice yet. McBride has been a big part of Arizona's passing game.
Harrison gets a juicy matchup against the Commanders, whose pass defense ranks dead last in DVOA. The Commanders have given up 582 yards to opposing WRs, the third-most in the league. Last week, the Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase torched the Commanders for 118 yards and two touchdowns. Smash the over for Harrison.
Amari Cooper OVER 52.5 receiving yards
It took Cooper a while to get going, but after being held to under 20 receiving yards in each of his first two games, he erupted for 86 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 3. Cooper has been the favorite target of Browns QB Deshaun Watson, drawing at least eight targets in every game.
Cooper gets a favorable matchup this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed 829 passing yards, which is third-most in the league. Look for Cooper to put up big numbers against his old team.