NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 1)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson's (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 1 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 1 betting. Let’s go!
Erickson's Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets
Tony Pollard UNDER 11.5 rushing attempts
Teams that faced the Bears at home in 2023 ran the ball at the lowest rate in the NFL. There's no better way to kick off the post-Derrick Henry era in Tennessee than 40 dropbacks from Will Levis. Slam the under on rushing attempts from Tony Pollard, who is in a 50/50 split with Tyjae Spears. Pollard will have his weeks as a rusher, but it won't come in Week 1. I'd expect both RBs to be used more as receivers (hence the over on Levis’s completions as highlighted in the full BP Primer), given the Bears' weakness last season was against defending RBs in the receiving game. Take the under on Pollard's rushing but the over on his receptions prop (1.5 receptions).
David Njoku UNDER 4.5 receptions
David Njoku caught more than four passes in just one of Deshaun Watson's five full starts last season. Dallas also allowed the fewest catches to TEs in 2023. This game could get ugly (I love the game total under), so shy away from these top projected pass-catchers.
Jonathan Taylor UNDER 18.5 rushing attempts
JT is one of the league's best RBs. But he is up against a top-tier run defense and a high-powered offense that is going to test Shane Steichen's allegiance to the run. If they fall behind as home underdogs, we could see the Colts scrap the run game to keep pace with the Texans. In Taylor's last six games as an underdog, he has surpassed 18.5 carries just ONCE.
Raheem Mostert UNDER 1.5 receptions
De'Von Achane is the preferred pass-catching RB in the Dolphins backfield. That's how his usage was last season, which carried over into this year's preseason usage. Expect him to get peppered with underneath targets after going over 2.5 catches in 60% of his last 10 games. The Jaguars allowed the most catches to RBs in 2023. Be sure to also bet the under on Raheem Mostert's receptions prop. Over his last 10 games, he has gone over 1.5 receptions ONCE.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 4.5 receptions
The Broncos have one elite player on their defense. CB Patrick Surtain. If he locks up DK Metcalf, that should open the target floodgates for second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Keep in mind that last season, in a limited role, Smith-Njigba averaged 3.7 Recs per game.
Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant have also been missing extensive practice time with injuries the last few weeks, setting the stage for a massive Week 1 game for JSN. The last 10 WRs most comparable to JSN to face Denver have gone OVER their projected receiving totals per the BettingPros Prop Analyzer.
Zach Ertz averaged 3.9 recs per game last season in seven games played. What defense allowed the most targets and second-most catches/yards to TEs in 2023? The Buccaneers.
Javonte Williams OVER 2.5 receptions
This one is easy money, folks. No team is going to feature RBs more in the passing game than the Denver Broncos this season. Javonte Williams went over 2.5 catches in eight of his last 10 games in 2023. He hit the over on his receptions total in 12 of 16 games played. Be sure to also bet the over on Jaleel McLaughlin's receptions prop and receiving yards (12.5).
Aaron Jones OVER 2.5 receptions
My colleague at BettingPros/FantasyPros, Chris Welsh, brought this up on our BettingPros props show, and I absolutely had to "steal" it. Aaron Jones averaged 2.6 receptions per game in his final year with the Packers. He's also been a great receiver out of the backfield, and I think that will be emphasized more against the Giants without tight end T.J. Hockenson available to draw short targets. Jordan Addison might not be 100% after dealing with an ankle injury the last few weeks, making Jones the de-facto No. 2 WR behind Justin Jefferson. If New York sells out to stop Jefferson, the dump-offs/checkdowns to Jones will come in bunches.
Daniel Jones OVER 26.5 rushing yards
Another prop I had to take from the Welsh. I swear it's my last one. Daniel Jones averaged 34.3 rushing yards per game last season in 6 games played. Behind a patchwork offense line, I fully expect Jones to be running for his life against a blitz-happy Brian Flores-led Vikings defense. Last year, Minnesota allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs.
Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 30.5 rushing yards
All indications are that Rico Dowdle will be the starting RB for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1. Simply put, his 31.5 rushing yards is just too low of a number for a projected starter. He is also explosive enough to rip off a big run or two if he sees more of a split workload with Ezekiel Elliott. Given the split, I like the under on Zeke's rushing prop at 30.5 rushing yards more than the over on Dowdle's rushing prop. The Browns allowed fewer than 4.0 yards per carry at home in 2023.
George Pickens UNDER 53.5 receiving yards
George Pickens finished with over 52.5 receiving yards in just 44% of his games played in 2023. Fade Pickens.
Last season, the Falcons were one of the teams allowing the fewest percentage of fantasy points to the perimeter. Given a tough projected CB matchup with A.J. Terrell and the run-heavy nature of the Steelers, this doesn't scream like a "George Pickens" week. His production will be volatile every week.
Khalil Shakir UNDER 47.5 receiving yards
The Cardinals were a top-six unit against slot WRs in 2023. Khalil Shakir projects to mix in the slot in 2024, but his receiving prop is the highest among all the Bills WRs for Week 1 at 47.5 yards. The projection is coming HEAVY toward the under at 40.5. Last season, Shakir went over this number just twice in nine games after Brady took over play-calling duties.
Curtis Samuel OVER 2.5 receptions
Conversely, I LOVE the over on Curtis Samuel's 2.5 catches. He's a player that Joe Brady will undoubtedly scheme touches for, making this a very low bar to clear. He caught at least 2.5 passes in 10/15 games last season (67%). Samuel set a career-high in catches (77) in his single season with Brady as his OC in Carolina. Samuel averaged over five catches per game that season.
Ja'Lynn Polk OVER 2.5 receptions
The Patriots' second-round pick projects to have a substantial role in Week 1, given the severe lack of WR depth in the Patriots roster. In three preseason games, Ja'Lynn Polk caught at least two passes in all contests (while seeing at least three targets) on limited work. In a full game with New England chasing points, expect Polk to go over 2.5 catches in his rookie debut. He was listed as a starter in the Patriots' Week 1 depth chart alongside K.J. Osborn and DeMario Douglas.
Bryce Young OVER 30.5 pass attempts
We saw Dave Canales' offense in two games last season with the Buccaneers against the Saints' defense. Baker Mayfield attempted 32-plus passes in both games, while Rachaad White's ground game was limited to under 60 rushing yards. This could be an opportunity for some sneaky passing volume from Carolina.
Gerald Everett OVER 1.5 receptions
Shane Waldron LOVES Gerald Everett. So much so that they signed him in free agency despite already having Cole Kmet on the roster. Everett played over Kmet at times during the preseason, foreshadowing his underrated role in this offense. 1.5 receptions is a low bar for Everett. He went over that number in 13 of his 15 games played last season in a tight end committee with the Chargers in 2023. Anytime TD bet at +600 long-shot odds? +2600 for first TD.
Don't knock it until you try it. Everett was sixth in red-zone targets in 2022.
Nico Collins OVER 66.5 receiving yards
He went over 66.5 receiving yards in both games last season versus the Colts. His production will be bumpy this year with the other offensive weapons, but based on this matchup, it should be a strong Collins outing.
Gus Bradley's defense loves Cover 3, and Collins was the WR3 in yards per route run versus Cover 3 in 2023 per Jacob Gibbs. Also, the Colts' strongest CB (Kenny Moore) plays in the slot. Collins projects for the most perimeter WR snaps among the Texans' "Big 3" WRs, setting him up for 60 minutes of favorable looks.
Deebo Samuel OVER 10.5 rushing yards
Elijah Mitchell was inactive during weeks 2, 4, 5, 14, 15, and 16 of the 2023 regular season. Deebo Samuel saw at least three carries in four of those six contests. That's more than enough volume to get him over 10 yards in Week 1. Look for Sameul to shoulder some early-season rushing work with CMC returning from his own injury (Achilles/calf) and Mitchell on the IR.
Mike Williams UNDER 2.5 receptions
Mike Williams is returning from a torn ACL. He could easily be on a snap count in Week 1. Not to mention, he's playing with Aaron Rodgers for the first time ever. Rodgers always goes to the guys he trusts, and I find it hard to believe Big Mike will be his go-to guy in the season opener.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 1.
Hunter Henry anytime TD (+500)
Hunter Henry's anytime TD odds are bonkers; +500 is way too long for the No. 1 red-zone target, albeit on the Patriots' offense. I don't expect New England to get shut out completely. Alex Van Pelt is familiar with the Bengals' defense during his tenure in Cleveland, and he knows he can expose it with TEs. Last year, the Bengals were the second-worst defense against TEs, allowing the most catches to the position. If the Patriots get close to scoring in the red zone, it's going to Henry.
David Montgomery anytime TD (-110)
Monty finished fifth in carries inside the 5-yard, 10-yard, and 20-yard line last season. The Lions boast the No. 1 OL against a Rams defense without Aaron Donald. You do the math.
Colby Parkinson anytime TD (+320)
Matthew Stafford ranked fourth in red-zone pass attempts last season. The Rams TEs are a new wrinkle in this offense, and they are expected to have a big role in the red zone. Colby Parkinson was heavily used in Seattle around the goal line, so he's got strong TD appeal in a high-scoring environment.
Johnny Mundt anytime TD (+550)
Mundt projects to be TE1 for Minnesota with T.J. Hockenson sidelined. He started twice last year, scoring in one of his two starts. In a game that could get pretty crazy, I like the longshot odds on Mundt.