NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 10)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 10 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 10 betting. Let’s go!
Erickson’s Week 10 NFL Player Prop Bets
George Kittle OVER 62.5 receiving yards
George Kittle has caught 17 of 19 targets for 197 yards and a touchdown when the nearest defender in coverage is a linebacker this season, the 5th-most such yards in the NFL.
The 49ers tight end has gone over 57 receiving yards in four straight games and posted at least 90 receiving yards in the last two games played without Brandon Aiyuk. Buccaneers linebackers have combined to allow the most receptions (52), most yards (671), highest completion percentage (86.1%), and 3rd-most yards per target (9.3) among all linebacking corps when targeted in coverage this season.
The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 20.5 receiving yards
The Bills defense is allowing the most yards, most catches, and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season. Jonathan Taylor has at least three catches in his two games played with Joe Flacco this season. However, his receptions prop has moved up top 3.5 as a result. Therefore, I am going to opt for the over on Taylor’s receiving yardage instead given his overall middling usage as a receiver in the Colts offense.
Derek Carr over 19.5 completions
Derek Carr’s completion projection is 21 against the Falcons. He has at least 18 completions in his last two games and soared over this number to 28 completions the last time he faced Atlanta. I expect plenty of RB/TE dump-offs with so many WR injuries the Saints are dealing with.
Alvin Kamara over 70.5 rushing yards
Every running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards in all but one game).
Courtland Sutton under 4.5 receptions
Courtland Sutton has experienced a rebirth the last two weeks – albeit against the Panthers/Ravens. It’s a much tougher matchup this week against the Chiefs, who have allowed the second-fewest yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs this season (36.7 per game). Sutton has come nowhere close to 4.5 catches in his bad matchups this season, finishing under the number in six of nine games played this season.
T.J. Hockenson OVER 3.5 receptions
In his season debut, Hockenson ran a route on 57.5% of dropbacks accompanied by 27 air yards, 11% air yards share, and a 15% target share. Expect his role to increase. The single best matchup for tight ends is coming up for him next against the Jaguars. The Jaguars are 31st in DVOA against TEs this season. Three of the last four tight ends they have faced have caught at least five passes against them.
Caleb Williams UNDER 29.5 pass attempts
Caleb Williams has not attempted 30 pass attempts at home for the Bears this season. He has also only attempted 30-plus passes three times in eight games played this season. He has also not attempted 30 passes in any game where the Bears have been favored.
Russell Wilson UNDER 211.5 passing yards
The Commanders defense has allowed zero QBs to pass between 200-280 yards this season. It’s been either under 200 passing yards or nearly 300-plus (three times).
In their last six games, only one QB has thrown for more than 175 yards against them (Lamar Jackson). Given that I like the game total under as outlined in Week’s 10 BettingPros Primer, I am betting on Wilson’s passing yards projection falling short.
Chig Okonkwo UNDER 2.5 receptions
Chig Okonkwo has caught more than 2.5 passes in three of his last four games, but those have come with Mason Rudolph under center. With Will Levis returning to the starting lineup, Okonkwo has gone over 2.5 catches only once this season. Okonkwo saw a boost in playing time last week when fellow tight end Josh Whyle was dealing with an illness. Now 100% healthy, I expect Okonkwo to see a reduced role and less volume against the Chargers.
Jalen Hurts UNDER 27.5 pass attempts
No quarterback that Dallas has faced has attempted between 28 and 39 attempts. It's either been extremely under (five times) OR extremely over (40-plus attempts). Jalen Hurts (fingers crossed he plays) is under 25.5 pass attempts in four straight games since the team came off their Week 5 bye week.
Kyler Murray OVER 29.5 rushing yards
As outlined in this week’s Week 10 NFL BettingPros Primer, I expect Arizona to be able to run the ball effectively at home against the Jets, rushing both from the shotgun formations and with Kyler Murray scrambles. Murray hasn’t run the last two weeks, but the Jets have allowed over 50 rushing yards per game to the last two QBs they have faced. Murray has at least 33 rushing yards in six of his last nine home games.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 10. Also, each prime-time game has its own featured anytime TD bets.
Aaron Jones (-105)
Aaron Jones only has three TDs this season despite 20 red-zone opportunities. As heavy favorites against the Jaguars, he should find the end zone. The Jags have allowed 12 TDs to RBs this season (8 rushing/4 receiving).
Trey McBride (+240)
Trey McBride leads all players in receiving yards (481) without a receiving TD this season. The big game is coming.
T.J. Hockenson (+280)
In one of Sam Darnold’s red-zone interceptions last Sunday night, he was targeting T.J. Hockenson in the end zone.
L.A. Chargers Defense/Specials Teams (+600)
Stealing Terrell Furman‘s LAC DST to score a TD this week. They are one of nine teams this season to not have a defensive or special teams TD. Their defense is top-10 in takeaways and no team has allowed more non-offensive TDs than the Titans. And Will Levis is back under center.
Davis Allen (+1400)
Tight end Davis Allen had three red zone targets last week for the Rams. Allen ran a route on 43% of dropbacks, more than Colby Parkinson's 41%. Allen also played the majority of TE snaps at 55% to Parkinson's 42%. In a wild shootout I like the long-shot odds on this overlooked Rams tight end. LA TEs have combined for 10 red zone targets this season with zero TDs. Regression is coming.