NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 11)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson's (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 11 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 11 betting. Let's go!
Erickson's Week 11 NFL Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Christian Watson OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards
In the last two games, Christian Watson has led the Packers in targets (13) and air yards (211), but he has just seven catches for 76 yards. But fresh off the bye week, Watson is fully healthy,
In his last three games with a full allotment of snaps, Watson has at least 37 receiving yards.
Kayshon Boutte OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards
Kayshon Boutte has emerged as the Patriots' No. 1 WR. He has 32.5 receiving yards in four of his last six games and six targets in three straight contests. He has over 320 air yards in his last three games (6th-most). The Rams rank 30th in yards per attempt allowed this season. Boutte is +360 for an anytime TD.
Alexander Mattison UNDER 43.5 Rushing Yards
What a backfield mess. With a new offensive coordinator brought in and Antonio Pierce continuing to pound the table for Zamir White, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another backfield flip this week in favor of White over Mattison.
On the ground in Week 9, Mattison led the Raiders with nine carries for 36 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry and a long of 7 yards. Ameer Abdullah chipped in with four carries for 12 yards (3.0 YPC), while Zamir White found the end zone on one of his six carries but only gained a total of 10 yards (1.7 YPC).
Mattison and White split carries (six apiece) in the first half. Mattison’s snaps fell to 39%, his lowest since Week 4. It was also beyond perplexing that the team put White into the game in the red zone over Mattison, something they did the reverse of early in the year when White was the starter.
Mattison has gone over 38 rushing yards only twice this season, and it took 23 carries to get there in his most recent effort. Also, the Dolphins’ defense has delivered three straight Unders to RBs they have faced in as many weeks.
Nick Chubb OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards
Offensively, I also see an advantage for Jameis Winston and the Browns’ offense. It’s a revenge game for Winston, although this profiles as a classic throwback Nick Chubb 100-yard rushing performance. Fresh off the bye week, he should be effective against the Saints' atrocious run defense that ranks 31st in EPA/rush and sixth in rushing yards allowed per game.
The Saints' defense has allowed a league-high 5.4 yards per carry on designed rushes outside the tackles this season, having contacted opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage on just 39.2% of such carries (2nd-lowest rate). The Browns' offense has averaged 4.7 yards per carry on designed rushes outside the tackles this season (13th).
Chubb has 15-plus carries in two straight games against two of the league’s best run defenses. This is by far his best matchup to date. Great anytime TD bet as well (+110).
Taysom Hill OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards
With all the injuries to the Saints WRs, Taysom Hill has taken on a bigger role as a receiver. He has at least 21 yards in three straight games. He also should have had a much bigger stat line last week if his 88-yard TD had not been called back for a penalty.
Take the Over.
Cedric Tillman OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards
Speaking of over streaks – Cedric Tillman. Over. 75-plus yards in three straight games.
Rashod Bateman OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards
Rashod Bateman is a big-play threat and can go over his receiving yards prop on one play. He should see volume, given the matchup versus the Steelers, who rank sixth in targets per game allowed to No. 2 WRs. Two weeks ago was the first time Bateman didn't exceed at least 28 yards when he caught at least two passes. Bateman would be on a streak of six straight Overs had it not been for drops in two of his last three games. Keep betting the Overs.
Anthony Richardson OVER 36.5 Rushing Yards
The Jets have allowed more than 50 rushing yards per game to two of the last three QBs they have faced. They rank 26th in EPA/play allowed against QB scrambles this season. Anthony Richardson has at least 45 rushing yards in each of his last two games, with his season-long average at 40 yards. Love the anytime TD odds at +215.
Bijan Robinson OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards
Bijan Robinson has had five consecutive games with 100+ scrimmage yards, the longest active streak in the NFL, and the longest by a Falcons player since Julio Jones had a 6-game streak in 2018 (Next Gen Stats).
Robinson has four straight games with at least 28 receiving yards. Denver just allowed 65 receiving yards to Kareem Hunt and rank bottom-five in yards/targets/catches to RBs this season. You do the math.
Deebo Samuel OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards
Seattle is a Deebo Samuel smash spot historically. Samuel has recorded 79+ receiving yards in seven of his eight previous appearances against the Seahawks. He went for over 100 yards the last time he played against the Seahawks back in Week 6.
James Cook UNDER 56.5 Rushing Yards
James Cook has been very boom-or-bust as a rusher this season. Five games with 70-plus rushing yards compared to four games with 45 or fewer yards. Given that KC has allowed one RB to get to 57 yards against them all season, Cook is looking like he is going to come up short in the rushing departments this week.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 11. Also, each prime-time game has its own featured anytime TD bets.
Christian Watson (+310)
The Packers have the 4th-highest passing TD rate this season. Over the last two games, Watson has led the Packers in targets (13) and air yards (211), but he has just seven catches for 76 yards. He’s not on the injury report.
Packers WRs versus the Bears in 2023.
- Romeo Doubs 2 TDs last season
- Dontayvion Wicks 2 TDs last season
However, Watson didn't play in either game. Dontayvion Wicks leads the Packers with seven endzone targets, followed by Watson with six. Wicks is the highest EV bet in the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Research Tool.
Parker Washington (+850)
The Lions rank dead last in the NFL against slot WRs. Worked last week for John Metchie…
Samaje Perine (+1000)
We are just two weeks removed away from a Perine red-zone touchdown catch. Given how bad Buffalo is at stopping pass-catching backs, these odds are way too long for the Chiefs’ primary third-down back.