NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 4)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson's (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 4 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 4 betting. Let's go!
Erickson's Week 4 NFL Player Prop Bets
Rashid Shaheed OVER 45.5 receiving yards
Trust the process. It's back to Rashid Shaheed week. Shaheed was targeted five times but goose-egged in Week 3. But he was close to a couple of big plays/scores. He still accumulated over 100 air yards with a 53% air yards share. Buy low. The Philadelphia Eagles weren't the zone-heavy matchup we wanted Shaheed in. The Atlanta Falcons - 12th in zone coverage per FantasyPoints Data Suite - is the spot for a major bounce back. They rank in the top 5 in Cover 3 and 31st in pressure rate.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Falcons have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 20% of dropbacks, marking the second-lowest pressure rate through the first three weeks of a season since pressure was introduced in 2018. The Saints offensive line has allowed a 14th-lowest 31.4% pressure rate and has surrendered just three sacks, tied for the second-fewest entering Monday night.
It's the exact recipe for a Derek Carr-Rashid Shaheed bounce-back effort. Over.
Josh Downs OVER 33.5 receiving yards
The Steelers are a "slot-funnel" defense. Colts slot WR Josh Downs contributed with a 25% target share (five) and caught three passes for 22 yards in his season debut. Downs saw a strong target share in his first game back. Take the OVER on his receiving yards prop in Week 4. All three opposing slot WRs to face the Steelers this season have gone for at least 44 receiving yards while going OVER their projected total.
Nico Collins OVER 81.5 receiving yards
Nico Collins now. Nico Collins Sunday. Nico Collins forever.
Collins has gone over 80 receiving yards in three straight games. He's gone over 79.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 11 games.
Tank Dell has already been ruled out of this matchup. In four of seven games last year with Dell out of the lineup, the Texans WR1 had at least 80 receiving yards.
Per Next Gen Stats, Collins has totaled 95 receiving yards when lined up against press coverage this season, the 3rd-most in the NFL.
The Jaguars have aligned their outside corners in press coverage on 36% of snaps, the 5th-highest rate in the league. They also play the most man coverage in the NFL (61%).
Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 45.5 receiving yards
Brian Thomas Jr. has played three NFL games. He's gone over 45.5 receiving yards in all three games. He's been the one bright spot in the Jaguars offense. With Gabe Davis nursing a shoulder injury, this is where we see BTJ erupt.
Because offenses have attacked the Texans’ defense with downfield shots, they have faced the No. 1-highest faced air yards per attempt this season at (9.6).
Trevor Lawrence is second in the NFL in average depth of throw at 10.6. Per Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars have averaged the second-deepest route depth in the league through three weeks of the season (10.3). And the Texans defense has been specifically vulnerable against play action.
Lawrence has the fourth-highest completion rate increase when using play action throws this season. I think the Jaguars passing game can do damage in this matchup, with the rookie wide receiver the centerpiece of the passing attack.
D'Andre Swift UNDER 35.5 rushing yards
Roschon Johnson led the Bears with eight carries for 30 yards, followed by D'Andre Swift, who rushed 13 times for 20 yards in Week 3. Khalil Herbert contributed nine yards on four carries. Herbie has been strictly used as the Bears' short-yardage back. All of Herbert's red-zone attempts were inside the 5-yard line.
Swift did have two red-zone carries in this contest. For negative eight yards. Woof. To make matters worse for Swift, Johnson was active, earning two red-zone carries as well. Johnson played 37% of the snaps in his season debut. Re-watching this game, you could barely tell Swift is the "starter." He had another drop as well, while Johnson was soaking up targets in the second half.
It's beyond over for Swift at this point. If he couldn't get any rushing production done in this layup matchup versus the Colts, it's not going to happen for him in 2024. The Bears can't run the ball with Swift against any opponent, even the Rams.
Swift hasn't even come CLOSE to 43.5 rushing yards this season, with his season "high" a staggering 30 yards back in Week 1. Woof.
This hasn't gone unnoticed by the Bears' brass. Per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler:
"Watch for Bears running back Roschon Johnson to possibly get an extended look this week. Chicago has struggled mightily to run the ball and turned to Johnson, more of a bruiser, for eight carries in Week 3 vs. the Colts. The Bears need to get downhill faster."
Rachaad White UNDER 38.5 rushing yards
In Week 3, rookie Bucky Irving took the lead in Tampa Bay's backfield with 70 yards on nine carries (7.8 yards per carry), falling just short of the end zone. Rachaad White added 17 rushing yards on six carries while playing a massive 74% snap share.
Irving's snaps were relatively the same as the last two weeks (32%). But two of his biggest rushes came when White was also on the field. Despite White's early-season struggles, the team has not reduced his snaps. However, this will likely change going forward. Todd Bowles has seen enough White rush attempts for no gain to realize Irving needs more carries.
White has finished with under 38.5 rushing yards in three straight games. The Eagles don't stack the box against the run, but that won't save White. He averaging 1.0 yards per carry against light boxes this season compared to Irving's 7.0 yards per carry.
Breece Hall OVER 27.5 receiving yards
The Broncos have the highest blitz-rate in the NFL at 45%. We'll see if they adjust against Aaron Rodgers, but I love the rushing prop on Rodgers if they are going to be sending heat his way. Rodgers looked spry last Thursday night, going for 18 yards on three carries.
Similarly, if the Broncos are sending multiple defenders Rodgers’s way to generate pressure, he's going to get the ball out quickly. Take the over on Breece Hall's receiving yardage props. He's gone over 27.5 receiving yards in three straight games. Also per FantasyPoints Data, Hall owns the third-highest first-read target share (18%) this season.
Javonte Williams UNDER 28.5 rushing yards
Javonte Williams has seen his rushing yards drop for three consecutive weeks (23, 17, 12). He lost a fumble last week and proceeded to see one more carry after that. Given his lack of production, we might see other Broncos RBs more involved going forward. Be sure you get him off your fantasy football team before Week 4.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 13.5 rushing attempts
Rhamondre Stevenson opened the year with 20-plus carries in back-to-back matchups. Last Thursday night was an outlier performance. Expect, with extra rest, Stevenson to get fed in this spot against a soft 49ers run defense that ranks 29th in EPA/rush allowed.
Carson Steele OVER 45.5 rushing yards
Carson Steele led the Chiefs with 72 yards on 17 carries in Week 3, averaging 4.2 yards per carry, while Samaje Perine contributed 25 yards on six carries. The rookie received six carries inside the 20-yard mark, with two carries inside the 5-yard line. He has eight rushes inside the red zone this season but hasn't scored.
Steele was at 62% snaps versus Perine's 38%. What was encouraging for Steele in his deployment was his routes. He ran a route on 57% of the dropbacks, more than Perine.
All in all, Steele's role was close to what we've seen from Isiah Pacheco in the Chiefs offense.
Steele was productive in his first start as the feature guy. Per Next Gen Stats, despite not gaining a single run of 10+ yards, Steele gained positive EPA on 12 of 17 carries while finishing with positive RYOE (+4). Steele also forced three missed tackles across 18 total touches on the night. On the year, he leads all qualified rushers in rushing success rate (69%).
I think there's too much fear about Steele's role evaporating after the team signed Kareem Hunt to the active roster. The last three RBs to face the Chargers have run for at least 44 yards, one being Zamir White.
Zay Flowers OVER 4.5 receptions
The Ravens receivers have suppressed lines because of the severe lack of passes from Lamar Jackson in Week 3. It was the LOWEST number of attempts by the Ravens quarterback in any game in his ENTIRE career where he played the full game. Buy. The. Dip.
Especially on Flowers, who is going to be force-fed touches based on his usage in this offense. Per Next Gen Stats, Zay Flowers has traveled 608 yards in pre-snap motion this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL (LaPorta, 687). Flowers is over 4.5 catches in six of his last ten games (2/3 this season).
Josh Allen OVER 20.5 completions
Josh Allen was dialed in on Monday Night Football, ripping the Jaguars secondary to shreds. I'd expect nothing less against the Ravens specifically to his completions prop. 20.5 pass completions is too low. The Bills QB has hit this number in six of his last nine road games. With a shootout on deck (not to mention every QB the Ravens have faced has completed at least 20 passes), easy over on Allen's completions.
After Buffalo opened up the year sixth in raw rush rate and 18th in pass rate over expectation, they went up to +11% pass rate over expectation in Week 3. Expect more of the same in Week 4 against the Ravens defense, which ranks 32nd in passing yards allowed per game.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 4.
Najee Harris (+125)
Regression works in mysterious ways. Najee Harris leads the NFL in red zone opportunities (10) without a touchdown. Eventually, something will have to give here. I like his odds, especially against the NFL’s worst run defense. Note that the Colts’ defense has allowed just one rushing TD this season despite allowing the most rushing yards per game. He is +550 to score first in a game in which the Steelers are favorites.
Brandon Aiyuk anytime TD (+138)
Brandon Aiyuk has five red-zone targets so far this season but zero TDs.
Khalil Herbert anytime TD (+500)
Very odd to see a team’s preferred goal-line back as a home favorite with odds this long. The books have lowered D’Andre Swift’s TDs odds and boosted Roschon Johnson’s, but Herbert’s has not been touched. +1800 for the first score.
Aaron Jones anytime TD (+130)
Anytime TD at plus odds in a revenge game? Child, please. Aaron Jones has eight red-zone opportunities this season and has scored in two of his three games as a Viking so far. +800 to score first.
Josh Jacobs anytime TD (-130)
Josh Jacobs STILL leads the NFL in red-zone carries without a touchdown score (tied with Harris). This backfield had similar issues scoring last season in the red zone, so eventually, the regression is going to kick in. But considering the matchups, I much prefer Harris over Jacobs in Week 4.
Erik All Jr. anytime TD (+700)
The Panthers are the only team to allow multiple TD passes to TEs this season. The Bengals rookie tight end has been heavily involved the last two weeks, with a combined eight receptions on eight targets. More importantly, the Bengals love to throw the ball in the red zone, and All has been on the field in RZ situations. He’s played 50% of the team’s offensive snaps from inside the 10-yard line the last two weeks. It’s a +11% EV bet per the Anytime TD Scorer research tool. +3100 to score the first TD of the game. Oh, baby. The next Donald Parham Jr.? Lord, I hope so.
Jameson Williams anytime TD (+220)
Jared Goff is tied for the NFL lead (Joe Burrow) in red-zone pass attempts with just one red-zone TD thrown (19). Williams was targeted four times in the red zone in Week 2 after seeing little involvement in Week 3. With Sam LaPorta potentially sidelined that should open up red-zone targets for Jamo. +1200 to score first on Monday Night Football.