NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 5)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson's (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 5 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 5 betting. Let's go!
Erickson's Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 60.5 yards
I hate to make "vibes" based analysis, but Brandon Aiyuk is due for a big game. He's gone under 60.5 receiving yards all four weeks this season after his contract hold-in. But we saw him go over 100 yards against Arizona last season at home. He went over this number in 67% of his home games in 2023 compared to just 30% on the road. The targets have been there for Aiyuk, but it just hasn't translated quite yet. Against Arizona, I think we see Aiyuk return to form. Note he almost had 50 yards last week on just two catches. The Cardinals defense ranks 31st in yards per pass attempt faced this season.
Brock Bowers OVER 43.5 yards
As the primary focus of the Raiders’ pass attack, rookie tight end Brock Bowers should have a massive week.
Bowers has 40-plus yards in three of his four games played this season. And last week, he should have posted a much better stat line than his 2-19 stat line would suggest. He dropped a deep pass on the game’s first play that would have gone for 30-plus yards from the get-go. On the next play, he was targeted again for 8 yards, but it was called back due to a penalty.
Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 50.5 receiving yards
Per Next Gen Stats, Brian Thomas Jr. leads all rookies in deep receptions (4) and receiving yards (140) this season. His 13.7 yards of average route depth ranks 3rd-deepest among rookie wide receivers, trailing only Xavier Worthy (14.8) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (14.7). BTJ has at least 47 yards in all four games this season, going over his projected total each week. His four most comparable players against the Colts have ALL gone over 60 yards when they faced Indianapolis earlier this season.
Zack Moss UNDER 41.5 rushing yards
Cincy ranks 5th in pass rate over expectation this season. The offensive line has been great so far this season, keeping Burrow out of harm's way. The Bengals QB has been the second-least pressured quarterback this season (19.5%).
Why run the ball against the Ravens run defense that ranks first in the fewest rushing yards allowed per game (57.8)?
Chase Brown UNDER 8.5 carries
With Chase Brown taking a larger portion of the work in the Bengals' backfield Moss doesn't have THE volume or efficiency in his side to get over 40.5 rushing yards. Brown had a great Week 4, but had just two carries in the first half. We have seen one starting RB the Ravens have faced this season surpass nine carries.
Trey McBride OVER 44.5 receiving yards
Getting tight end Trey McBride back for the Cardinals is a huge boost for Arizona's offense, particularly in this matchup against the 49ers. When McBride played the 49ers last season, he caught 10 passes for 102 yards. In the early ARI-SF 2023 matchup, when Zach Ertz was the Cardinals starting tight end, he caught six passes for 53 yards on 10 targets.
Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers have struggled defending targets to the middle third in Weeks 1-3, allowing the most yards per attempt (14.2) and a 60.0% success rate (23rd in NFL). In each season from 2018 to 2023, the 49ers ranked in the top 5 in yards per attempt allowed and success rate allowed against passes targeted to the middle third. Kyler Murray has completed 18 of 22 passes over the middle of the field beyond the line of scrimmage for 169 yards and a touchdown this season. His +12.6% completion percentage over expected on those attempts ranks 2nd-highest in the NFL behind only Jayden Daniels (+18.3%).
Sprinkle some anytime TD action on McBride as well (+225).
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 58.5 rushing yards
On Wednesday, the Patriots placed starting center David Andrews on IR due to a shoulder injury. Another brutal hit to the patchwork offensive line. To make matters worse, there's a major concern from head coach Jared Mayo regarding running back Rhamondre Stevenson.
Per ESPN's Mike Reiss, "It is "definitely under consideration" that RB Antonio Gibson starts over Rhamondre Stevenson on Sunday after Stevenson has fumbled in each of the first four games."
Not great. But let's keep this in mind before the Patriots bench their most explosive player on offense. Gibson is in New England because he fumbled his way OUT of Washington.
In essence, this isn't news. Any RB that fumbles five times in five games has to be punished in some way. So, of course, this will likely be overblown. If anything, this should light a fire under Stevenson to be the guy he was the first two weeks of the season (over 1oo rushing yards per game) versus the last two weeks of the season. Worked last week when it seemed D'Andre Swift was going to be benched. He had his best game to date for the Bears. Last year around this time, we had a report from the Patriots that claimed Ezekiel Elliott would see "starter snaps." That did not translate to the field.
If the Patriots want to win this game, they have to run the football. Point blank. Every running back the Dolphins have faced has gone over their rushing total with at least 73 rushing yards. If Stevenson fumbles, we’re cooked. But if he holds tight, he’s running wild.
Amari Cooper OVER 49.5 receiving yards
Per Next Gen Stats, Amari Cooper has totaled 335 air yards on targets that fell incomplete this season, most of any receiver. Deshaun Watson has completed just tqo of 13 passes over 10 air yards when targeting Amari Cooper for 47 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Cooper also leads all receivers with -134 receiving yards over expected this season. This isn’t exactly a great endorsement for Cooper’s body of work this season, but it is more predictive of how much production he and Watson have left on the table. For all the criticism Watson receives (deservedly so), he played one of his best games of the season against the Raiders, which the box score doesn't quite capture. The Browns quarterback could have two big touchdown passes to Cooper, but the interception wasn't his fault. He posted PFF's second-highest passing grade in Week 4.
Cooper is as a boom-or-bust as they come, and I’m betting that this is the plus matchup where we get the boom. In fact this is probably better an alternative receiving number bet than anything else. In 2023, Cooper posted six games with 34 or fewer receiving yards. In the other nine games, he went over 77 receiving yards. Been the same story this season. Three games with under 35 yards. One game with 85-plus. Feast or famine.
Terry McLaurin OVER 51.5 receiving yards
Commanders No. 1 WR, Terry McLaurin, projects to match up with Browns right CB Martin Emerson. No cornerback has a worse PFF pass coverage grade than Emerson (37.2) this season. McLaurin runs almost all of his routes exclusively from the left side of the offensive formation. His targets have also increased by two every week, dating back to Week 1.
Stefon Diggs OVER 5.5 receptions
If I were to bet on a piece of the Texans' offense this week against Buffalo, it would be Stefon Diggs (revenge game). He's got the best matchup as the underneath slot option against Buffalo. We know that the Bills' defense does everything in their power to limit big plays - third-lowest yards per attempt allowed this season - and that is conducive to fewer points scored by opposing offenses. Also means more short passes to the slot, which has been Diggs’ role in the Texans offense this season.
Tank Dell OVER 43.5 receiving yards
However, it might just be Tank Dell Week, folks. He is expected to return, and his quarterback had nothing but glowing remarks about getting the ball to "one of the best receivers in the league." Not his team. The league. Once his receiving props drop, pounce on the overs. Dell has a career 57% hit rate on the over at this 43.5 receiving line. I also like his anytime TD odds at +260.
Jalen Tolbert OVER 34.5 receiving yards
Jalen Tolbert had three receptions on three targets for 24 yards in Week 4, averaging 8 YPR, with a long catch of 15 yards and 13 YAC-11% target share.
Brandin Cooks caught one pass on four targets for 16 yards, averaging 4 YPR, with a long reception of 16 yards and 10 YAC. Cooks ran the most routes among Dallas WRs but he has already been ruled out for Week 5. We should see Tolbert see more targets as a result.
As I've mentioned in this week’s Week 5 BettingPros Primer, it's a great matchup on paper for the Dallas slot WR against Pittsburgh, so we should see continued success from CeeDee Lamb. However, Tolbert leads Dallas in yards per route run (2.18) from the slot. Look out for him on Sunday night.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 5.
Najee Harris (-105)
Regression works in mysterious ways. Najee Harris STILL leads the NFL in red zone opportunities without a touchdown. Eventually, something will have to give here. I like his odds, especially against the Dallas Cowboys’ horrible run defense. He is +550 to score first in a game in which the Steelers are home favorites.
Brandon Aiyuk anytime TD (+150)
Brandon Aiyuk has five red-zone targets so far this season but zero TDs.
Josh Jacobs anytime TD (-130)
Josh Jacobs is STILL tied with Najree Harris in red-zone carries without a touchdown score. This backfield had similar issues scoring last season in the red zone, so eventually, the regression is going to kick in.
Colby Parkinson anytime TD (+300)
Parkinson caught four of seven targets for 33 yards (24% target share). He was targeted twice in the red zone but didn't score. Parkinson is tied for the NFL lead in red-zone targets (4), but he has scored zero TDs. The usage is pretty strong for Parkinson, but the production has been waning. But given last week's seven targets and this matchup, I think this might be the week for the "Colby" shot to make it into the touchdown column.
Jalin Hyatt anytime TD (+550)
Malik Nabers has been ruled out for the Giants, creating an opportunity for Hyatt to see a full-time role in the Giants receiving corps. Nabers has been the deep threat while healthy (11 targets of 20-plus air yards), so Hyatt makes sense as the next logical replacement. He has three targets all season, two of which have been downfield shots. This anytime TD is brought to you by BettingPros’ own Terrell Furman.
Erick All Jr. anytime TD (+600)
I’m still ALL in. Last week didn’t fire for rookie tight end Erick All Jr., but the opportunity remains. The Bengals love his run-blocking pass-catching combination, which means he is going to see the field in the red zone. Baltimore ranks second in yards, catches and targets allowed to TEs this season. All in.
Curtis Samuel anytime TD (+390)
Buffalo will be without WR Khali Shakir, who leads the team in targets this season. Shakir is the team's slot WR which Josh Allen has relied on heavily. The Bills quarterback has targeted the slot at the sixth-highest rate this season (34.7%) per Next Gen Stats.
Allen has generated a league-high 68.6% success rate when targeting the slot. Allen has also recorded an 82.9% completion percentage and +0.73 EPA per dropback, both 2nd in the NFL. The Texans' defense has allowed a 54.3% completion percentage and just 4.3 yards per attempt on passes targeting the slot this season, both best in the NFL.
Strength on strength, but it is hard not to give the advantage to the Texans if tight end Dalton Kincaid and veteran wide receiver Curtis Samuel are taking over the slot snaps due to Shakir's injury. It’s Samuel’s newfound opportunity in the slot that has me chasing the anytime TD at some longer-shot odds.