NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 6)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson's (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 6 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 6 betting. Let's go!
Erickson's Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets
Drake Maye OVER 27.5 rushing yards
I teased this earlier on all the BettingPros podcasts, but Drake Maye is going to use his legs A LOT in his season debut. The Texans rank dead last in rushing/EPA per QB scramble this season allowing nearly 32 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs. This prop is how you make money watching Patriots-Texans.
The former UNC quarterback is more athletic and was one of the most underrated rushing quarterbacks coming out of this year's draft class. He averaged nearly 56 yards per game on the ground through his two years as a starter. The rookie will ask to carry the load after drawing the starting nod in New England - for better or worse – amid a lackluster supporting cast and patchwork offensive line.
Calvin Ridley OVER 3.5 receptions
The Colts rank 30th in yards per attempt allowed this season. They have also allowed the second-most passing yards per game to the perimeter.
I mentioned in this week’s BettingPros Primer already how bad the Colts are against perimeter WRs. The Calvin Ridley "boom" game is coming.
Earlier this week, Bengals head coach Brian Callahan said to Ridley, "I need to find ways to get you the ball more." Pitch and catch, folks. The last five most comparable WRs to face the Colts this season have gone OVER their receptions totals per the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
The projections have Ridley for four receptions and 49.3 receiving yards, both well ahead of his line on the sportsbooks.
Mike Evans OVER 56.5 receiving yards
Per FantasyPoints data, Evans ranks sixth in the percentage of routes with multiple steps of separation (6.4%) I think Marshon Lattimore should be more concerned about Evans roasting him than vice-versa.
Mike Evans’ last three games “against†Marshon Lattimore:
- 3 for 40 (37% snap share) – left 2nd quarter with a hamstring injury.
- 3 for 61 (61% snap share) – ejected.
- 1 for 14 (23% snap share) – another hamstring injury.
He will be fine. Besides, Evans’ receiving yard line is at the lowest it’s been all season despite the Saints allowing the five-most comparable WRs to Evans to go over their projected receiving yards total. Fade the noise. Take the over. He’s over this number in three of five games this season.
DeVonta Smith UNDER 5.5 receptions
DeVonta Smith has exceeded 5.5 receptions in just 7 of his last 17 games played with A.J. Brown, dating back to the start of 2023 (29%). This 5.5 line is too high for the Eagles No. 2 wide receiver against the Browns, considering they have allowed the fifth-fewest completions to opposing offenses this season (second-lowest completion rate).
Tank Dell OVER 52.5 receiving yards
The Texans will be without No. 1 WR Nico Collins. This will place more emphasis on Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. I'd expect the Patriots to use Christian Gonzalez on Diggs as much as possible, setting up Dell to post a strong receiving stat line. In 2023, Collins missed one game while Dell was healthy. He had 14 targets in that matchup.
Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 receptions
The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most receptions on defense this season. I expect the Commanders to throw in this spot as I wrote in this week’s BettingPros Primer, so I am looking at overs for the two top-receiving targets. Terry McLaurin’s two overs on his receptions props this season (Weeks 2+4) came in contests with Jayden Daniels attempting 29 throws. His pass attempts prop line is set at 31.5 attempts. Every QB the Ravens have faced this season has attempted at least 28 passes.
Aidan O'Connell UNDER 2.5 rushing yards
Aidan O’Connell rushed for 2.5 yards (three in each instance) in just four of his 11 games played last season (36%).
The Steelers have an elite pass rush, and O'Connell is not the most agile quarterback in the pocket. He doesn't scramble. Per Next Gen Stats, O'Connell threw past the sticks on just 32.7% of his attempts in 2023, the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL (Minshew: 36.4% this season).
O'Connell did not record a single scramble rush attempt on any of his 367 dropbacks last season, joining Drew Brees (2019) as the only qualified passers to not attempt a single scramble run in a season in the Next Gen Stats era. Is this a Purdue quarterback thing?
Either way, he's going to be in a lot of trouble against the Steelers. Per Next Gen Stats, the Steelers have used a 4-man rush at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL this season (77.1%) and have generated the 4th-highest pressure rate (35.9%) and tied for the 4th-most sacks (10) when doing so.
Kyler Murray OVER 32.5 rushing yards
Kyler Murray has rushed for at least 45 yards in four of five games this season. He has gone OVER his rushing yards prop in all four games the Cardinals have been underdogs this season.
Alvin Kamara UNDER 68.5 rushing yards
This Bucs-Saints might become much more of a divisional defensive struggle, nothing like what we saw from the Buccaneers last Thursday night. They will be able to mitigate the Saints' run game. However, I'm not convinced that with a rookie QB, New Orleans will get away from their 27th-ranked pass rate over expected offense. They will try to run (and run again), but I think it will be largely ineffective. It won't help their offense that Calijah Kancey is set to return for the Buccaneers' interior. I'd opt for the under on Kamara's rushing prop at 67.5 yards. He missed it last week, and Kendre Miller is expected to return to the lineup this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 58.5 rushing yards
Per Next Gen Stats, David Montgomery has recorded a rush success rate of 46.5% since joining the Lions last season, the fourth-highest among running backs with at least 150 carries. On the other hand, Jahmyr Gibbs has a success rate of just 39.0% (22nd). What Gibbs has lacked in consistency, he has made up for in explosiveness. Gibbs has the 6th-highest explosive run rate (14.4%) over the last two seasons, while Montgomery has an explosive run rate of just 9.9% (19th). Both Montgomery and Gibbs have combined for 1,706 rushing yards after contact since 2023, the most in the NFL by any RB duo.
I just can't see Dallas' defense having any answers for stopping this elite rushing attack.
Gibbs has gone over 12.5 carries and 57.5 rushing yards in three straight contests. Take the over with Gibbs' rushing props.
Breece Hall OVER 52.5 rushing yards
I am fully expecting a bounce-back effort from the Jets on Monday Night Football. Offensively, I think they get back to the basics, but running the football against a defense that ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per attempt. New play-caller Todd Downing is hardly an upgrade from Nathaniel Hackett, but the man knows how to call run plays.
He was the OC in Tennessee for two seasons and the team posted a -9% pass rate over expectation. He has also spoken about building an offense that reflects the physicality of new interim head coach and former DC Jeff Ulbrich.
Feed Breece Hall, and great things will happen. The last time Hall faced Buffalo at home, he rushed for 127 yards. The BP projections have him slated for 56 yards. Hall went over 53.5 in the first three weeks of the season before the back-to-back tough matchups.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 6.
Breece Hall (+105)
Breece Hall has scored at least one touchdown in six of the Jets’ last eight games. The last two games were against the two best defenses in the NFL. Go figure. Everything about this matchup screams Hall ERUPTION game. Take all the rushing/receiving overs and all the TD props.
Bucky Irving (+105)
Bucky is projected to lead the Buccaneers’ backfield, with Rachaad White doubtful with a foot injury. He has totaled nine red-zone touches but only has one TD on the year. He is also +550 for the first TD score as a road favorite.
Zach Ertz (+425)
Tight end Zach Ertz caught just two of his eight targets (30% Target share) for 10 yards. Ertz was targeted four times in the red zone but only caught one pass, with no touchdowns. Ertz left a boatload of production on the table (70 air yards), but the usage is positive for him in a plus-matchup versus the Ravens in Week 6. Baltimore is second in yards, targets, and catches to TEs this season.
Najee Harris (+125)
Regression works in mysterious ways. Najee Harris STILL leads the NFL in red zone opportunities without a touchdown. Eventually, something will have to give here. I like his odds, especially against Las Vegas' horrible run defense. He is +550 to score the first touchdown in a game in which the Steelers are favorites. George Pickens is also do for regression as the league leader in red-zone targets with a touchdown.
Ja’Lynn Polk (+650)
Rookie Ja'Lynn Polk was targeted six times (20% Target share) and caught one pass for 13 yards in Week 5. Polk was HOSED on a fourth-quarter touchdown that would have given the Patriots the go-ahead score. He also led the team in air yards for the second straight week (13 targets in the last two games). Polk continues to string together impressive outings that aren't necessarily being reflected in the box score. The offense situation is bad, but Polk is flashing his talent. He played 100% of the snaps for the Patriots in Week 5. I think we see the rookie-to-rookie chemistry flash between Maye and Polk in Week 6. Hunter Henry is also in play here, given he has a strong red-zone presence (four red-zone targets) but no scores yet.
Erick All Jr. anytime TD (+750)
Tight ends Mike Gesicki (two for 31) and Erick All Jr. (two for 10) weren't featured last week. I know it was disappointing for Erick All Jr. compared to the last few weeks, but his usage was still encouraging. He played more snaps than Mike Gesicki at 52%, even if he ran fewer routes. Don't write off the rookie tight end just yet. The Bengals love him as a receiver and blocker. His time will come. He's gone over 17.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games. +3100 for the first TD.
Curtis Samuel anytime TD (+550)
Buffalo will be without WR Khali Shakir for another week. Shakir is the team's slot WR, which Josh Allen has relied on heavily.
Samuel failed to take advantage of Shakir's absence in Week 5, with only one catch for no gain on four targets. However, Samuel remained involved in a lot of designed targets in the red zone. He will be schemed touches if the Bills close in on scoring in the red zone-+1900 for the first TD.