NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 7)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 7 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 7 betting. Let’s go!
Erickson’s Week 7 NFL Player Prop Bets
Drake Maye OVER 27.5 rushing yards
Went over last week. With five scrambles for 38 yards. The Jaguars have allowed four of the last five QBs they have faced to go over their rushing yards projection. They’ve allowed the eighth-most rushing yards allowed to QBs this season. Wet rainy conditions in London set up well for Drake Maye to take off running.
Tyreek Hill OVER 4.5 receptions
In the Week 5 Dolphins game, Tyreek Hill was the top target with nine (29% Target share), catching six passes for 69 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per reception, with a long of 21 yards and 18 yards after the catch. Hill was targeted two times in the red zone but had no catches or touchdowns. He came close to a TD but was ruled out of bounds. It was Hill’s best performance of the season since Tagovailoa’s injury. Given that I think we see the Dolphins offense bounce back against this bad Colts defense, I am taking over Hill’s receptions prop this week. All six of the closest comparable WRs to Hill this season that have faced the Colts have exceeded their projected receptions.
Michael Pittman Jr. UNDER 4.5 receptions
Michael Pittman Jr. was targeted five times, catching three passes for 35 yards and one TD on a jump ball from Joe Flacco in Week 6. He was not limited despite entering the game with a back injury. But for the second straight game, he took a backseat to Josh Downs in terms of target share. With Anthony Richardson back under center, only one Colts pass-catcher will likely be relevant. And I’d bet it’s Downs who is the most reliable based on his ability to command targets at an elite level. He has the fourth-highest target rate per route run this season. Pittman has only exceeded 4.5 catches twice this season in games where Flacco spent the most time at quarterback. He’s 3-0 toward the under at this number with Anthony Richardson under center.
Evan Engram OVER 4.5 receptions
In the Jags passing game last week, tight end Evan Engram was Lawrence’s go-to target, hauling in all 10 targets for 102 yards, giving him a 29% Target share. Engram ran a route on 70% of the dropbacks in his return from injury. He has surpassed 46.5 receiving yards in seven of his last ten games (70%). Also, the Patriots defense has been a sieve against the tight end. 45-plus yards to three of the last four tight ends they have faced. Three of the last tight ends they have faced have caught at least four passes. And Dalton Schultz would have also gone over his prop last week had he not played terribly. Schultz caught four of his eight targets for 27 yards.
Chuba Hubbard OVER 70.5 rushing yards
Chuba Hubbard has over 90 rushing yards in each of his last four games this season. The Commanders have allowed 715 rushing yards to opposing running backs (5th-most in the NFL). Every running back they have faced has gone OVER their projected rushing totals this season.
Tony Pollard OVER 68.5 rushing yards
If the Titans want to win (and cover) the massive nine-point spread, it will undoubtedly be with their rushing game on offense.
The Bills defense ranks dead last in yards per rushing attempt this season. The Titans’ run game tends to be very boom-or-bust, but I’d project them to have success on the ground, similarly to last week, with Tony Pollard leading the charge. Tyjae Spears won’t play as he’s been listed week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Pollard has 62 rushing yards in four of his five games played this season – all contests where he saw at least 16 carries.
David Njoku OVER 4.5 receptions
Tight end David Njoku saw seven targets (30.4% Target share), hauling in five receptions for 31 yards, with a long catch of 27 yards in Week 6. Njoku had one red zone target but did not make a catch or score. Njoku ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks. Jerry Jeudy’s targets have gotten nuked since Njoku returned. Well, at least that was the thesis before Amari Cooper got dealt to the Bills. There’s a massive target and air yards share gap in this offense now with Cooper out of the way. I’d expect Jeudy/Njoku to take on the majority of targets (from Deshaun Watson, keep in mind), while Cedric Tillman should also see expanded work.
Simply put, this line of 4.5 catches for Njoku is too low, given the loss of Cooper. He is practicing in full and should be a huge part of the Browns’ passing game for Week 7 against the Bengals. Njoku has at least 5 catches in 10 of his last 15 games played.
Tank Dell OVER 61.5 receiving yards
Without Nico Collins, wide receiver Tank Dell was Stroud’s go-to target, receiving a team-high nine targets (29% Target share), pulling in seven catches for 57 yards with a touchdown in Week 6. Dell was targeted once in the red zone, catching it for a touchdown.
Dell had 71 air yards, 28% air yard share. Stefon Diggs had 94 air yards and 37% air yard share, taking over a larger piece of downfield looks vacated by Nico Collins. Dell led the team in routes, running a route on 89% of the dropbacks, followed by Diggs (77%).
Two games without Collins, dating back to last season, and Dell has averaged just over 11 targets per game. Go back to the over. The last six most comparable WRs to face Green Bay had ALL exceeded their receiving yards projection this season.
DK Metcalf OVER 67.5 receiving yards
Per Next Gen Stats, DK Metcalf has accumulated 212 of his 469 yards, and he scored his two touchdowns on go routes, which is the most yards gained by any player on a single route this season. Metcalf has been particularly effective at go routes this season compared to previous years, posting career-highs in catch rate over expected (+4.9%) and EPA per route (0.12).
Metcalf led Seattle in targets with 11 (23% Target share) for the Seahawks last Thursday night but only managed 48 yards on three receptions, one of them being a 30-yard gain. Metcalf was targeted three times in the red zone but caught just one and did not score a touchdown. Metcalf had 166 air yards and a 41% air-yard share, making him the quintessential buy-low candidate based on his opportunity alone.
Atlanta has allowed 7th-most receiving yards (81) and third-most targets (9.6) to opposing No.1 WRs this season.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 50.5 rushing yards
Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over his rushing yards lines (49.5) in four straight games to go along with the over on his rushing attempts prop (10.5) in every single game this season. In two games against Minnesota last season, Gibbs averaged 55 rushing yards and 14 carries per game.
DeVonta Smith OVER 57.5 receiving yards
DeVonta Smith had a solid day in Week 6, catching three of his four targets (16% Target share) for 64 yards and a touchdown, including a 45-yard catch. Smith’s production always booms when someone else in the receiving corps misses time. Most notably, last season, he went over 57.5 receiving yards in every game that Dallas Goedert missed in 2023. He has also gone over 57.5 receiving yards in every single game this season (four games).
Xavier Worthy OVER 40.5 receiving yards
JuJu Smith-Schuster was the top target, hauling in seven receptions on eight targets (23% Target share) for 130 yards, including a long catch of 50 yards back in Week 5. Per Next Gen Stats, JuJu added 83 yards after the catch (+16 YAC over expected), the highest mark by a Chiefs receiver this season.
Smith-Schuster’s massive game will boost his receiving lines. But I’d expect Xavier Worthy’s role to increase in full post-bye week fashion, so I would be hesitant to go overboard for Smith-Schuster even after the big Monday night game. Worthy ran more routes (32 vs 28) than Smith-Schuster. Justin Watson ran more routes than Smith-Schuster as well (29). Smith-Schuster also picked up a hamstring injury this week. It’s not good for a player who has struggled to produce while banged up.
Worthy was targeted six times (17% Target share) in Week 5, catching three passes for 25 yards with a rushing touchdown. The last six most comparable WRs to Worthy have gone OVER their receiving yards prop against the 49ers.
The 49ers defense has allowed 278 deep passing yards this season, the 6th-most in the NFL.
They also rank eighth-worst in EPA/target on passes of 20-plus air yards this season.
Worthy’s alt line for 70-plus yards (he’s already done once this season)? +400. Break out the ladders, folks.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 7. I’m also featuring a “the guys I can’t quit†list. Basically, players that have gotten love in the past weeks, where we are just waiting for the regression to kick in. Also, each prime-time game has its own featured anytime TD bets.
Saquon Barkley (-160)
Imagine Saquon Barkley in the “Boston Scott Giants killer†role.
Austin Ekeler (+115)
No. 2 RBs that have faced the Panthers this season have AVERAGED at least one rushing TD per game.
Jaylen Wright (+650)
Anybody who knows exactly how the Dolphins will deploy their backfield is lying to you. Okay, we probably “know†how it will go but I’m holding out some hope that rookie Jaylen Wright might get some more run than the sportsbooks are giving him credit for. The last time we saw Wright, he was the most productive rusher for Miami, carrying the ball 13 times for 86 yards, averaging 6.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 17 yards. Wright logged two red zone carries. He finished Week 5 as PFF’s highest-graded rusher.
Zach Ertz (+255)
We came so close last week. Got tackled at the one-yard line. Trust the process.