NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 8)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 8 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 8 betting. Let’s go!
Erickson’s Week 8 NFL Player Prop Bets
Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 58.5 receiving yards
Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over his receiving yards prop in all but one game this season. The rookie continues to exceed expectations and that should continue against the Packers. Six of the last seven most similar WRs to Thomas have exceeded their receiving yards prop versus the Packers, with four going for 70-plus yards. Thomas has 80-plus receiving yards in three of his last four games.
Tank Dell OVER 53.5 receiving yards
Tank Dell saw six targets, including penalties, but goose-egged. Woof. Dell saw two red zone targets but failed to convert either into a catch with 45 air yards, 32.85% air yards share, and 21.05% Target share. Buy low. He still sees a massive target share in the offense without Nico Collins.
Tyler Boyd OVER 3.5 receptions
Tyler Boyd caught all five of his targets for 43 yards, averaging 8.6 yards per reception, with a long of 12 yards. Boyd caught both of his two red zone targets. His most productive game as a Titan came with Mason Rudolph as the quarterback in Week 7. No team has allowed more fantasy points to slot WRs than the Lions this season.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 51.5 receiving yards
Jaylen Waddle has surprisingly gone over his receiving yards prop in half of his games this season despite playing with backup quarterbacks in his last five games. He has played one full game with Tua Tagovailoa this year, generating 100-plus yards. In Waddle’s last 11 games with Tua, he has surpassed 49.5 receiving yards in eight games (73%).
Rachaad White OVER 3.5 receptions
Per Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers have generated a league-high +238 yards after the catch over expected (YACOE) this season (1,188 actual yards after the catch, 1st).
Chris Godwin had accounted for +112 of the Buccaneers +238 total YACOE (47.0%). Rachaad White is the only other Buccaneers receiver to have generated more than +50 YACOE this season. The Falcons’ defense has allowed a league-low 4.1 yards after the catch per reception this season, half a yard fewer than the next closest defense (Broncos, 4.7). The Falcons (-6) and Bears (-8) are the only defenses to have allowed fewer yards after the catch than expected this season.
White has the 7th-highest running back target share this season. He’s gone OVER 3.5 catches in half his games this season and in six of his last ten games played.
DeVonta Smith OVER 55.5 receiving yards
DeVonta Smith BOMBED last week. But it was in a game where the Eagles barely threw the ball. Jalen Hurts attempted 14 passes- his lowest attempt total since 2021. Last week was a glaring outlier, so go right back to the Smith receiving props. No defense has faced more targets to No. 2 WRs than the Bengals this season.
Before last week, Smith had gone over 55.5 receiving yards in every single game this season (four games). Smith also went over 55.5 receiving yards in every game that Dallas Goedert missed in 2023. Goedert is OUT. BUY THE DIP.
Kenneth Walker OVER 25.5 receiving yards
Kenneth Walker III has over 23.5 receiving yards in 3 of 4 games since returning from injury. The Bills defense is allowing the second-most yards, second-most catches and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 5.5 receptions
Geno Smith has attempted the second-most quick passes (139) behind only Aaron Rodgers (140) but is one of three qualified quarterbacks to have not thrown a touchdown on a quick pass this season (Bo Nix & Anthony Richardson).
Of Smith’s 139 quick passes, 7.9% have resulted in an explosive play (15+ yards), the 11th-lowest rate in the NFL. The Bills defense has allowed 14 explosive plays on quick passes this season, tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL.
With D.K. Metcalf questionable, expect JSN to feast underneath. Smith-Njigba led the team in targets with 7 (29% Target share), catching four passes for 63 yards, averaging 15.8 yards per reception, and scoring one touchdown last year when Metcalf was out. This season, Smith-Njigba is averaging 5.3 catches per game.
D’Andre Swift OVER 60.5 rushing yards
Chicago’s run game has also come alive in recent weeks, and that should continue against the Commanders. D’Andre Swift has surpassed his rushing yards projection in three straight games, with at least 73 yards in each contest. Fresh off the bye week, he should continue to see opportunities. Six of the last seven RBs that Washington has faced have gone over their rushing yards projection this season. The projections have Swift closer to 63 rushing yards for Week 8.
Bo Nix UNDER 28.5 pass attempts
No quarterback who has played the Panthers this season has surpassed their passing attempts projection. Only twice has a quarterback gone for 30-plus (Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins). Nix has under 28.5 pass attempts in three of his last four games (27.5 average) and is 2-0 toward the under in the Broncos’ two games as favorites this season.
Alexander Mattison UNDER 38.5 rushing yards
Alexander Mattison led the ground game with 23 carries for 92 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per carry with a long of 13 yards in Week 7. Zamir White chipped in three carries for 13 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Mattison dominated with a 70% snap rate. The Raiders have a new RB1 with a healthy White buried behind Mattison on the depth chart. But Mattison draws a brutal matchup this week against the Chiefs. Only one RB they have faced this season has surpassed their rushing yards total. KC’s defense is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game this season.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 8. I’m also featuring a “the guys I can’t quit†list. Basically, players that have gotten love in the past weeks, where we are just waiting for the regression to kick in. Also, each prime-time game has its own featured anytime TD bets.
Anthony Richardson (+175)
Anthony Richardson has scored three rushing TDs against the Texans in his brief NFL career. He has only scored once this season (Week 1 against the Texans) despite 10 red-zone carries.
David Njoku (+240)
The Ravens lead the NFL in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. But they have allowed zero tight end TDs. That won’t last with Jameis Winston hyper-targeting Njoku in the red zone. They connected on a red-zone TD last week and I’d project for a repeat performance.
Tank Dell (+155)
See the analysis above.
Tyler Boyd (+320)
Tyler Boyd caught all five of his targets for 43 yards, averaging 8.6 yards per reception, with a long of 12 yards in Week 7. Boyd caught both of his two red zone targets. His most productive game as a Titan came with Mason Rudolph as the quarterback in Week 7. No team has allowed more fantasy points to slot WRs than the Lions this season. If the Titans score at all against Detroit, my money is on Boyd hitting paydirt.
Guys I Can’t Quit
- Austin Ekeler anytime TD (+260)
- Audric Estime anytime TD (+300)
- Malik Washington anytime TD (+1100)