NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 9)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson's (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 9 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 9 betting. Let's go!
Erickson's Week 9 NFL Player Prop Bets
A.J. Brown OVER 83.5 receiving yards
Against deep passes this season, the Jaguars rank fifth in attempts, first in yards, second in yards per attempt, third in EPA/pass attempt, and first in separation.
According to Next Gen Stats, A.J. Brown has generated +176 receiving yards over expected this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL.
Brown has hauled in 4 of 7 targets for 170 yards on Go routes this year, resulting in three touchdowns and generating a +15.3 Total EPA (Highest in NFL). Since 2022, Jalen Hurts has been efficient when targeting Brown on Go routes in tight windows, completing 17 of 31 pass attempts for 583 yards and eight touchdowns (five more TDs than the next QB-WR duo).
There’s not an Eagles WR receiving yards prop over that I don’t love this week.
Keep calm and AJB WR1 szn on.
De’Von Achane OVER 4.5 receptions
The Bills defense is allowing the most yards, most catches, and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season. De’Von Achane has at least six catches in every single game that Tua Tagovailoa has started this season.
Rico Dowdle OVER 16.5 receiving yards
Mike McCarthy spoke at length last week about getting running back Rico Dowdle more touches. I’d envision he will see more schemed-up plays as a receiver, given that the Falcons rank fourth in receptions to RBs this season. Dowdle has at least 15.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and all but two RBs the Falcons have faced this season have yet to exceed their receiving yards prop.
Nick Chubb over 52.5 rushing yards
In Nick Chubb’s second game back from his injury, he led the rushing game with 16 carries for 52 yards, although he didn’t find the end zone. These are not eye-popping numbers, but Chubb accomplished a feat no player has done against the Ravens' elite run defense-surpassing 50 yards. With him getting healthier week by week, I love Chubb’s potential against the Chargers to keep on improving. LAC does not stack the box (9%), which will help Chubb pick up yardage on the ground.
Five of the last six RBs to face the Chargers have exceeded their rushing projection, with them all hitting at least 64 rushing yards. In the last two weeks, they have allowed over 5.7 yards per carry and over 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson under 53.5 rushing yards
Rhamondre Stevenson. It's been a roller coaster ride for Stevenson this season, as he is taking on the "Amari Cooper of RBs" mantra. Seven games played this season. Four top-10 finishes (including three inside the top-5). Then three outside the top 40 overall. Under 54.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games. Woof.
One RB the Titans have faced this season has rushed for at least 65 yards (Jahmyr Gibbs last week). Gibbs is also the only RB to rush for at least 45 yards and score a TD against Tennessee this season.
In Stevenson’s last 15 games as an underdog, he is 11-4 toward the UNDER on his rushing prop (73%).
Zach Ertz OVER 3.5 receptions
Tight end Zach Ertz was a key target in Week 8, hauling in 7 of his 11 targets for 77 yards. Ertz commanded a high 32.35% target share, contributing 113 air yards (27.16%). He has at least 3.5 catches in three straight games as the pseudo No. 2 WR for the Commanders.
Jakobi Meyers OVER 4.5 receptions
Jakobi Meyers has at least 4.5 catches in four straight games this season and in every game since the Raiders moved on from Davante Adams. The Bengals have been the worst defense against No. 2 WRs this season.
Troy Franklin OVER 23.5 receiving yards
Troy Franklin contributed 5.41% of targets and collected 38 air yards (9.87%) in Week 8. He was third in routes and came short of another deep score from Nix. He’s a rookie. Practice patience. He will benefit from the upcoming matchups (like the Ravens). He had gone over 30 receiving yards in two straight games before last week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. UNDER 3.5 receptions
The Bears are tied with the Broncos with the fewest targets allowed to opposing No. 1 WRs this season.
Sam LaPorta OVER 39.5 receiving yards
Jared Goff has completed 14 of 16 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown when targeting Sam LaPorta against zone coverage this season. Goff has averaged 14.1 yards per attempt when targeting LaPorta against zone coverage, the 4th-most of any QB-receiver duo and the most of any QB-tight end duo in the NFL this season (min. 15 targets).
Despite an inconsistent role, LaPorta has gone over 40.5 receiving yards in 4/7 games this season, including three of his last four. He has also gone over 40.5 receiving yards in four of his last five appearances with Jameson Williams out of the lineup. He went over 40 yards in both games against the Packers last season.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 26.5 receiving yards
Since returning from injury in Week 4, Kenneth Walker has become a pass-catching machine. He has hit the over in all his receiving props in five straight, going over 30 yards in four of the games.
Every RB that is used in the passing game they have faced this season has gone over their prop with all but one going for at least 30 receiving yards. They also rank dead last in RB DVOA per FTN.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 9. Also, each prime-time game has its own featured anytime TD bets.
Christian Watson (+310)
Given how often the Lions play man coverage, you know that Jordan Love is going to take his shots with one of his downfield specialists. All Packers WRs are popping in the BettingPros Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet report. Christian Watson has been heavily involved against man coverage this season.
Last week against the Jaguars, Watson added four catches for 39 yards. He tied for the team lead with a season-high six targets. Watson ran a route on 76% of dropbacks, out-pacing Dontayvion Wicks (28%). Watson received a red zone target without a catch or score. Watson garnered a 22.22% target share and collected 66 air yards (23.74%). Watson leads GB in yards per route run against man coverage and scored in both games against the Lions last season.
Wicks (+470 anytime TD) already has four TDs this season, while Watson has two.
Trey McBride (+240)
The Cardinals receiving corps was highlighted by tight end Trey McBride in Week 8, who recorded nine catches for 124 yards on 11 targets, including a long reception of 37 yards. McBride ran a route on 89% of dropbacks. McBride had one red zone target but did not score.
McBride commanded 33.33% of the target share and 76 air yards, making up 27.84% of the team's air yards. Buy low. McBride leads all players in receiving yards (446) without a receiving TD this season. The big game is coming.
Austin Ekeler (+230)
Leads all RBs in red-zone targets/carries without a TD yet this season.
Jermaine Burton (+400)
Season-high in route participation (41%) in Week 8 with Tee Higgins out. They continue to take shots deep with him.
Adam Trautman (+800)
The Ravens lead the NFL in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. But they have allowed just one TD (last week to David Njoku which we bet). Trautman received two red zone targets and scored one touchdown last week.