NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 2 (2021)
We now have some in-season data to help inform our betting selections with Week 1 in the rearview mirror. Hopefully, more insight into player usage will yield better results than last week’s underwhelming outcomes.
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume of player props they have to pick from. Still, I suggest line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have the available time to do so. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like to go over enhances your odds of cashing. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 2 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week's slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Adam Trautman (NO) OVER 2.5 Receptions (-115)
I’m leading with my favorite bet. The Saints surprisingly boat racing the Packers last week didn’t provide any insight into how they’ll play in a close game. However, it did demonstrate how they’re using their tight ends.
Trautman was targeted a team-high six times on Jameis Winston’s 20 pass attempts. According to Sports Info Solutions, his 30.0% target share was the sixth-highest in Week 1. However, the favorable usage extends beyond the box score.
According to Pro Football Focus, Trautman played 19 passing snaps, running a route on 18 of them. In other words, he wasn’t used as a blocking tight end.
That role should allow him to reel in some targets and receptions in a favorable matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jets targeted their tight ends 11 times, opposing the Panthers in Week 1. Last year, the Panthers permitted the fourth-most targets (128) and tied for the fourth-most receptions (90) ceded to the position. Therefore, I love Trautman’s odds of corraling at least three passes.
Jalen Reagor (PHI) OVER 2.5 Receptions (-175)
Reagor has another low reception over I’m enamored with. If he were used as a field-stretching home-run wideout last week like he was in 2020, I’d fade this. However, that wasn’t the case.
New head coach and play-caller Nick Sirianni drastically altered Reagor’s usage. The speedy wideout had an average depth of target of 13.3 yards downfield as a rookie. Last week, he was peppered with targets near the line of scrimmage, netting an average depth of target of only 1.2 yards downfield. He also tallied an 18.8% target share.
Therefore, there’s a reason there’s such significant juice on the over. I’m willing to take the over even if this line moves to 3.5 receptions.
James Robinson (JAC) UNDER 60.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-115)
The Texans clowned Urban Meyer and the Jaguars last week. Though, Meyers did a masterful job providing clown-like entertainment with baffling usage for his backfield. The Jaguars signed one of his former Buckeyes, Carlos Hyde, and they drafted a running back in the first round. They signaled a lack of support for the incumbent back, and Robinson took a backseat to Hyde carrying the ball.
Hyde carried the ball nine times for 44 yards. Meanwhile, Robinson toted the rock five times for 25 yards. However, Robinson held the edge in playing time (63% of offensive snaps to 34% for Hyde) and was the top pass-catching back. The latter point could make us sweat this under if the Jaguars dig themselves a hole immediately again this week as six-point underdogs.
Fortunately for our under, rookie Trevor Lawrence didn’t play like a deer in the headlights in the opener. He wasn’t a check-down machine. He attempted 51 passes, and J-Rob’s six targets were only fifth-most on the team. Betting against competency in Jacksonville’s offense might be a recurring theme this year, starting with J-Rob’s under for 60.5 rushing plus receiving yards this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.