NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 7 (2021)
Once again, I'm using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let's take a look at a few player props for Week 7 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week's slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Matthew Stafford Longest Completion Over 40.5 Yards (-110)
Matthew Stafford is thriving in his first year in Sean McVay’s offense. This week, he has a chance to stick it to his former club, the Detroit Lions. One area in particular where Stafford’s shined is completing deep passes. The following table illustrates his longest completion in each game this year.
| Week | Longest Completion (Yards) |
| 1 | 67 |
| 2 | 44 |
| 3 | 75 |
| 4 | 35 |
| 5 | 68 |
| 6 | 30 |
Thus, Stafford’s completed a pass north of his 40.5-yard prop in four of six games. A matchup with the Lions is what the doctor ordered for him going over again.
Detroit’s pass defense is atrocious. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions rank 25th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, and more importantly, they’re incapable of stopping explosive passing plays. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Lions have yielded the highest average explosive pass play rate (15%) this season. Stafford’s deep-ball prowess dovetails perfectly with Detroit’s susceptibility against explosive pass plays.
Now, I say the following facetiously since I’m only a recreational gambler and not a tout. Yet, to quote the immortal Carl Brutananadilewski, this is the stone-cold lock of the century, of the week.
DeSean Jackson Longest Reception Over 15.5 Yards (-110)
I’ve been stumping for DeSean Jackson in daily fantasy and season-long fantasy football all week at each of my writing homes. So, why stop there? Let’s hop on one of D-Jax’s props I love, too.
As I noted above, the Lions are coughing up the highest average explosive pass rate to the opposition this year. The Rams have a few receivers that are equipped to shred Detroit’s secondary. However, D-Jax is the clear-cut best field-stretcher for the Rams with the usage to match.
Jackson is one of the game’s best vertical receivers of all time. Seriously, that’s not hyperbole. According to Pro-Football-Reference, his 17.5 yards per reception is the 39th-highest mark of all time and the highest among active players. In addition, even in his twilight years, the Rams are using him as a home-run hitter. According to Sports Info Solutions, his average depth of target of 22.1 yards downfield this year is the deepest among players with at least 10 targets.
D-Jax has caught a 16-yard reception or longer in half of his games in 2021. However, I view this as better than a coin-flip pick when factoring in Detroit hemorrhaging explosive pass plays to their opponents.
Davante Adams Over 96.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Finally, we have another coin-flip if only using the 2021 game log with the Davante Adams over 96.5 receiving yards prop. Meaning, he’s reached at least 97 receiving yards in three games, and he’s fallen short of that line three times.
Once again, I view the matchup tilting the scales in favor of the over. The Football Team’s pass defense is a train wreck. Washington ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. Additionally, receivers are eviscerating them. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Washington’s permitted the second-most receiving yards (1,275) to wide receivers this year.
That’s bad news for the Football Team facing the NFL’s biggest target hog in Adams. Green Bay’s top receiver is second with 66 targets. However, his 35.5% target share is the highest mark this year. As a result of his robust target numbers, he’s leading the league with 111.3 receiving yards per game.
So, I love the combination of Adams’ elite usage and Washington’s putrid defense aiding his quest for recording at least 97 receiving yards this week. Yet, I’m not alone, as the projections at FantasyPros peg Adams for 103.2 receiving yards against the Football Team. So, let’s get a piece of the action on over 96.5 receiving yards for Adams in Week 7.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.