NFL Playoffs Same Game Parlays: Ravens vs. Steelers (Wild Card Saturday)
These two teams could not look any more opposite coming into this game. The Ravens finished the season winning four straight to capture the AFC North, while the Steelers lost four and their NFC North lead.
Oddsmakers seem to believe the Ravens will easily handle this with a two-possession spread, but this is still a playoff game between two teams that know each other well.
We’ll break down the matchup and make a same-game parlay (SGP).
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Wild Card Best Same Game Parlay Bets: Ravens vs. Steelers
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
- Leg 1: Over 43.5 Points (-110)
- Leg 2: Derrick Henry 90+ Rushing Yards (-165)
- Leg 3: Russell Wilson Over 18.5 Completions (-125)
This is being predicted as a blowout game, and there's a reason for it. The last time they played each other in Baltimore, the game was close until the fourth quarter, when the Steelers’ offense had just 27 total yards. Russell Wilson threw a pick-six and the Ravens grabbed a 34-17 win.
Pittsburgh has completely fallen off the last quarter of the season. We once talked about them challenging Kansas City for the top seed in the AFC, but they finished the season losing four straight and earned a Wild Card berth. This roster has so much talent, but they aren't playing up to par. Since Week 15, they have ranked 29th in defensive expected points added (EPA) and 31st in offensive EPA.
Wilson looked great when he took over, but his success rate has declined. Of the 28 quarterbacks who have played at least 100 snaps since Week 15, Wilson is 26th in success rate and 27th in adjusted EPA per play. Now, you’re seeing it spill over into the run game. They started the season with 13 straight games of at least 90 rushing yards but finished with fewer than 75 yards rushing in two of their final four games.
The Ravens figured out what to do in that last matchup: Attack on the ground. They rushed the ball on 38 out of 62 plays and gained 220 yards, with Derrick Henry responsible for 162 of those yards.
Henry could make this team different than in previous years when they had an early playoff exit. Baltimore never had a dependable running back they could entrust, move the ball and allow things to open up in the air. Henry could have another significant role because Lamar Jackson will be without top receiver Zay Flowers. Jackson hasn't been an important factor with his arm. He threw for only 207 yards in both matchups.
This spread is too large for a playoff game between two division rivals. The run game could set the tone for this matchup, favoring the Ravens. We could have another high-scoring game with the Ravens’ explosive offense and the Steelers having to play catch-up.
Parlay Odds: +452