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NFL Playoffs Same Game Parlays: Texans vs. Chargers (Wild Card Saturday)

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The vibes couldn’t be more different for the Chargers and the Texans entering the playoffs, evidenced by the visiting club being favored against the hosts. Still, the game’s spread is slight and both teams should play offense however they prefer.

Thus, the following four-leg same-game parlay (SGP) leans into the second-half offensive tendencies in neutral game scripts. For both teams, this means putting the game in the hands of their signal-callers. Yet, dropping back could also lead to rushing production for one of the quarterbacks.

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Super Wild Card Best Same Game Parlay Bets: Texans vs. Chargers

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud had an outstanding rookie season and followed it up with the classic sophomore slump. It was an across-the-board regression for Stroud. His passing yardage, efficiency and passing touchdowns declined in 2024, while his interceptions and sacks climbed.

Nevertheless, Stroud had 219.2 passing yards per game, and he did his best work at home. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Stroud had only 190.1 passing yards per game on the road but averaged 252 at home this season. In 16 career home games, Stroud has averaged 281.4 passing yards per game.

Despite injuries ripping through Houston’s receiving room, the Texans leaned on the passing attack in the back half of the season. According to RotoViz’s pace app, from Week 10 through Week 18, Houston’s 64% situation-neutral pass rate was tied for the second-highest in the NFL. During that period, the Chargers faced a 57% situation-neutral pass rate. In Los Angeles’s final nine games in the regular season, they allowed 228.2 passing yards per game. FantasyPros projects Stroud for 221.4 passing yards.

Justin Herbert should have even more success than Stroud in this contest. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have allowed Herbert to cut it loose. They aren’t sticking to their traditional ground-and-pound tendencies. Of course, they haven’t had Herbert at their past stops.

In Los Angeles’ final seven games in the regular season, they had a 57% situation-neutral pass rate. They’re also facing a defense that teams have attacked through the air much more often than on the ground. Since Week 10, the Texans have faced a 58% situation-neutral pass rate.

This year, Herbert has averaged 227.6 passing yards per game with a median of 218. However, Herbert was on an upswing at the end of the year, tallying 346, 281 and 284 passing yards in the final three games of the regular season. He can stay hot against the Texans. Houston allowed 254.6 passing yards per game in their final eight games in the regular season.

Dropping back will also enhance Herbert’s rushing opportunities. He had a slow start to the year as a runner. Don’t forget that Herbert entered the season with a plantar fascia injury. Herbert’s turned on his rushing ability after amassing only 34 rushing yards through his first six games. In his final 11 games, Herbert recorded 24.7 rushing yards per game. In the do-or-die playoffs, Herbert will likely push every advantage he has, including running when opportunities present themselves.

Circling back to passing the pigskin, Herbert will likely pepper Ladd McConkey with targets. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, McConkey put up these stats this season:

  • 81.7% route participation rate
  • 28.5% air yards share
  • 22.9% target share
  • 0.24 targets per route run
  • 29.0% first-read percentage
  • 82 receptions (5.1 per game)
  • 1,155 receiving yards (72.2 per game)
  • 2.57 yards per route run

McConkey needs only an average game to reach at least 70 receiving yards this week, and he has a favorable matchup. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Texans allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game (151.1) to wide receivers. FantasyPros projects McConkey for 75 receiving yards in the Wild Card Round.

Parlay Odds: +435

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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