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NFL Playoffs Sunday Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Wild Card Weekend)

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This Sunday, NFL Week 19 presents an exciting three-game slate that promises to deliver action-packed playoff matchups, perfect for both casual fans and serious bettors. With games featuring teams battling for a Super Bowl, there's plenty to focus on from a betting perspective, including prop bets, spreads, totals, and same-game parlays.

These games offer a wide array of betting opportunities, with three exciting matchups with playoff implications on the line.

  • No. 7 Denver Broncos (10-7) at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)
  • No. 7 Green Bay Packers (11-6) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
  • No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5) at No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

Whether you're targeting individual player props or looking to make the most of the total points and game spreads, this slate is stacked with betting angles to explore. Let's dive into what you should be keeping an eye on and how to maximize your bets for this exciting Sunday NFL action.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Sides:

  • The Bills have won 11 of their last 12 home games.
  • The Bills have won each of their last eight home games.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 22-8 as a favorite since the start of last season and 15-15 ATS.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 16-2 straight up and 10-8 ATS at home.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • The Bills have won 19 of their last 24 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games as favorites (66%).
  • The Bills have covered the spread in nine of their last 15 games against AFC opponents.
  • Bills are 9-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record (56%).
  • The Bills have won their last 16 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • As a road underdog, Buffalo is 3-4 straight up and on the Moneyline (33%).
  • Denver is 5-2 ATS as road underdogs (the only blown covers came against the Ravens and Chargers).
  • As underdogs, the Broncos are 5-4 ATS (2-7 straight up).
  • The Broncos are 8-9 ATS on the road from 2023 (6-5 ATS last nine road games).
  • They are 9-9-1 as road underdogs (50%).
  • The favorites have covered the spread in 12 of the Broncos’ last 13 games.
  • The favorites have won each of the Broncos’ last 13 games.
  • The Broncos have scored first in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Broncos have won each of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have won seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in nine of their last 10 games with their starters.
  • Ten of the Bills’ last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 7-1 toward the over this season (51.6 points per game).
  • Fifteen of the Bills’ last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line – 21 of their last 27 road games.
  • Twelve of the Bills’ last 14 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Bills’ last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bills’ last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Broncos’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Broncos have the third-best red zone defense in the NFL (BUF defense ranks 16th)
  • Nine of the Broncos’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Broncos’ last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Broncos’ last 29 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Broncos’ last four postseason games has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Denver has been untouchable as a favorite this season. 9-0 ATS and straight up.

However, as underdogs, it has not been the same type of success. Denver is 5-2 ATS as road underdogs (the only blown covers came against the Ravens and Chargers). As underdogs, they are 5-4 ATS (2-7 straight up).

It's important to note that Denver went 1-5 against playoff teams during the regular season (not counting the game versus the Chiefs' backups). 2-4 ATS against playoff teams.

As is typical of some of these middle-tier playoff teams, they beat down the bad teams but fail to stack up against the best teams in the NFL. Case in point: the favorites have covered the spread in 12 of the Broncos’ last 13 games.

Buffalo has the capability of being that bully team in this matchup. They tend to play extremely well at home, and they will be playing off a rested Week 18 game, compared to Denver's win and in scenario.

When these lines first dropped, I was shocked to see Buffalo favored so heavily by over a touchdown. And since the market opened, it has just moved more in favor of the Bills who are 8.5-point favorites.

I felt like Bo Nix's strong rookie season would have provided him with more love from the sportsbooks, but that has not been the case. More forces are working against him as a rookie QB making his first road postseason start in a hostile environment.

Even so, we might see the line narrow closer to Sunday.

Either way, I like the Bills to win comfortably by more than a TD in this game. Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in nine of their last 10 games with their starters. Denver has won one game when they have allowed 30 points on defense this season. In the other three games that they have given up 30 points, they have gone 0-3 straight up and ATS.

As for the total, I am 100% backing the over. Buffalo is calling for a slight chance of snow in the forecast, so there's a chance we get this total at a suppressed number. Because I don't think any weather or the Broncos defense can stop Buffalo's offense at home.

They are 7-1 toward the over at home this season, averaging well over 50 points per game. And five of the Broncos’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line. In the games where Denver failed to cover the spread against playoff teams (Ravens, Chargers x2), the game went over the total, averaging over 50 points per game.

Props:

Khalil Shakir contributed 25 yards on three receptions back in Week 17. Shakir led the way with six targets in the first half and was hyper-targeted on 33% of his routes run.

The Bills slot WRs production has fallen off the last few games, where Buffalo has played in weird game scripts. Even so, Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in nine of 15 games this season.

I like his receiving prop OVERs at 53.5 receiving yards, given he won't be catching coverage from Broncos CB1 Patrick Surtain as the team's No. 1 slot WR.

Denver had allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid also rested last week with the Bills starters. He has played in three games since returning from a three-game absence and he leads the team in red-zone targets over that span.

The second-year TE hasn't scored since Week 8. Kincaid only has four TDs in the regular season, but he scored in his first playoff game last season. Look for a repeat performance on Wildcard Weekend.

Jaleel McLaughlin started and contributed with 16 carries, totaling 39 yards, at an average of 2.4 yards per carry. Rookie Audric Estime had 12 carries for 34 yards and one touchdown. Javonte Williams added five carries for 28 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt, while Jarrett Stidham rushed 2 times for 7 yards. Michael Burton had a single carry for 3 yards.

McLaughlin saw his snaps increase to 41% despite the blow-out victory. Estime finished third in snaps at 24%. He also saw six of his 12 total carries on the Broncos' final drive in the fourth quarter.

McLaughlin led with 14 carries through the first three quarters, to Estime's two and Williams's three.

McLaughlin is the current RB1 for the Broncos.

Williams is still the preferred pass-catching back, so we could see him get worked more with Denver as an underdog on the road in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs.

Therefore, I like the under on Estime's props. Less than 5.5 attempts and 19.5 rushing yards. Before the fourth quarter against the Chiefs, in the favorable game script, he was sitting on two carries for four yards.

My Picks:

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Packers’ last four postseason games.
  • Five of the Packers' six losses have come against playoff teams (Lions, Vikings, Eagles).
  • GB is 1-4 ATS against playoff teams this season.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 18-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 15-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-12 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have won the first quarter in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 21 games (57%).
  • The Packers are 6-4 as road underdogs ATS (60%) over the last two seasons.
  • The favorites have won 12 of the Packers' last 13 games.
  • The Packers have won nine of their last 14 games.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last nine of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Packers are 9-10-1 ATS as home favorites (50%).
  • Green Bay is 3-9 as a road favorite ATS (25%) and 12-11 on the money line.
  • In six of the Packers' last seven games as favorites, the first score has been a Packers Touchdown.
  • In the Eagles’ last three games, the first score has been an Eagles Touchdown.
  • The Eagles have won 12 of their last 13 games.
  • The Eagles have won 12 of their last 18 games as favorites (67%).
  • The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in their last 13 games.
  • The Eagles are 5-13-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just five spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles were 15-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (67%).
  • The Packers have a 21-point implied team total.
  • The Eagles are 16-11 ATS as home favorites in their last 27 games (59%).
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 24 games.
  • The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in their last 12 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 13 of the Eagles’ last 22 games.
  • The Eagles have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Eagles have lost six of their last 12 road games.

Totals:

  • The Packers have scored first in 13 of their last 14 road games.
  • Eleven of the Packers' last 15 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 22-14 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Fourteen of the Packers' last 25 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, 7 in Week 11, 17 in Week 12, 23 in Week 13, 7 in Week 14, 14 in Week 15 and 21 in Week 16. In week 17, they scored just three points in the first half. In Week 18, the Packers scored 13 in the first half.
  • That's over 16 first-half points per game in Weeks 5-16, which would rank second in the NFL.
  • Eleven of the Packers' last 19 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Green Bay is 3-6 O/U this season at home, averaging under 43.5 points per game.
  • Thirteen of the Eagles' last 14 games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Eagles’ last eight games in January has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 1-7 toward the over at home this season (41.6 points per game).
  • Each of the Eagles’ last five home games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Eagles' last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 15-20 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 7-12 toward the over on the road.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-8 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023.
  • Nine of the Eagles’ last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Packers are heading on the road to take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the first round of the NFL playoffs. But they are in rough shape. QB Jordan Love is banged up again after suffering an elbow injury in Week 18 that kept him out of the second half. WR Christian Watson suffered a torn ACL injury.

The spread opened as Eagles -3.5 but immediately jumped to Eagles -4.5.

Green Bay has struggled mightily against top-tier competition this season, putting serious doubt in their upset potential on Sunday. Five of the Packers' six losses in 2024 have come against playoff teams (Lions, Vikings, Eagles). They are currently 1-4 ATS against playoff teams.

The "only" trend working in their favor in this matchup is their record ATS as road underdogs 6-4 (60%) and how quickly they can score at the start of games.

We know the Packers operate the best when they can establish a semblance of a rushing attack, and that is often accompanied by an early lead.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers offense led the NFL with a 49.4% called run play rate in the first half of games this season.

Even when accounting for game script and situational factors, the Packers were still the most run-heavy team in the first half of games, recording a +14.8% run rate over expected. At the full game level, the Packers ran the ball more than expected in all but one game this season (Week 4, vs MIN: -2.0%).

Given how Philly's offense can often start sluggish - especially after Jalen Hurts has missed the last two games - I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever to see the Pack jump out to an early lead (live betting opportunity on the Eagles’ side).

But Green Bay's postseason accolades from last season should also not be so easily forgotten. They were touchdown road underdogs or more against the Cowboys/49ers. They beat Dallas outright and lost to San Fran by three.

Ergo, the underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Packers’ last four postseason games.

I didn't think I would be siding with the Packers ATS before diving into the matchup, but I think that is the side I will settle on. Keep in mind that whether Philly covers the 4.5 spread is more dependent on their defense than offense.

If Green Bay scores 20-plus, it's likely accompanied by a cover from what we have seen from the Eagles defensively. The Love-led Packers offenses have scored at least 20 points in all but one game this season.

Although I don't think this will be an overly productive game for Love, I think he might be able to do enough as a passer against the Eagles blitz.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Eagles’ defense blitzed on 32.4% of the Packers team dropbacks in Week 1, their 3rd-highest blitz rate in a game this season.

Love was not sacked but completed just 6 of 12 passes against the blitz for 38 yards and a touchdown (3.2 YPA).

Love has recorded the 2nd-highest completion percentage (72.9%) and averaged the 9th-most yards per attempt (8.9) against the blitz following the Packers Week 10 bye.

As for the Packers defensively, they could also present some challenges for the Eagles. Keep in mind that the Eagles defense isn't the only strong unit playing. Vic Fangio's defense finished No.1 in DVOA this season, but the Packers weren't far behind at seventh overall.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers’ defense was able to hit opposing ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage on 48.8% of designed runs this season (4th-highest) and allowed just 0.6 yards before contact per designed run (3rd-fewest). The Eagles allowed the Packers to hit ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage on a season-high 58.1% of designed runs in Week 1 and gained just 13 rushing yards before contact.

The Packers’ defense allowed only 0.6 yards before contact per carry on designed runs between the tackles this season, the 2nd-fewest in the league.

They also only allowed an explosive gain (10+ yards) on 6.6% of runs directed between the tackles, the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

As for the total, I think you can probably guess where my lean is: Under at 45.5. I think this total line is sharp in what looks to me like a 23-20 or 24-20 type of game. Eagles home game hit heavy toward the under, which is par for the course of a team that wins with rushing/defense. The Packers are similar in that capacity.

But because I don't think the Eagles completely dominate this matchup, it's possible it just sneaks over. That's my biggest concern. Instead of a straight bet on the under, I also like a same-game teaser of Packers +10.5 and a game total under 50.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook).

Props:

Jordan Love has passed for under 217.5 passing yards in three straight games and five of his last seven games. All but two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels) have finished under their passing yards projection versus Philly's defense since their bye week. Love is also 3-7 toward his passing prop without Christian Watson over the last two seasons (1-6) on the road.

According to Next Gen Stats, Love averaged 7.3 yards per attempt against man coverage when Christian Watson was on the field compared to just 3.6 yards per attempt when he was off the field this season.

He also recorded a 17.5% explosive pass rate (15+ yards) against man coverage with Watson on the field, nearly five times his rate when Watson was off the field (3.6%).

No. 1 tight end Dallas Goedert also had a productive day, catching four passes for 55 yards on six targets. It was a strong showing for DG, given he only played 13 snaps (19% snap share). The Eagles TE was targeted on 67% of his routes run.

Seven of the last nine TEs the Packers have faced have gone for 36-plus receiving yards. According to Next Gen Stats, linebackers were the nearest defenders in coverage on 27.9% of total targets faced by the Packers defense this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

Packers linebackers have allowed the most receptions (117), most yards (1,193), and the 7th-most yards per target (8.0) as a unit.

Presuming Goedert is now fully back to health, he is in a sneaky production spot in the first round of the playoffs.

According to Next Gen Stats, Tucker Kraft totaled team-highs in targets (29), receptions (22), and yards (274) while tying for a team-high in touchdowns (3) against the blitz this season.

He accounted for just a 12.0% share of the Packers air yards against the blitz, the fourth-highest among Packers receivers trailing Dontayvion Wicks (29.7%), Romeo Doubs (21.0%), and Christian Watson (20.7%).

Kraft has gone over 35.5 receiving yards in three straight games and five of his last six. The Packers TE has surpassed his receiving yards prop in six straight games.

DeVonta Smith has played one game this season with a healthy A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert when he has gone over 5.5 receptions.

I talked about it in the overall breakdown of this game that this is a prime spot to scoop some value on Packers first TD odds as they look to shock the Eagles on the road. Josh Jacobs? Probably not. No team has allowed fewer TDs to RBs this season than the Eagles. So, let's make this bet on a Packers pass-catcher coming away with a TD.

Every single Packers receiver you can get at longer than 13-1 odds to score the first TD. Kraft (+1600) and Dontayvion Wicks (+1700) are the best options for both first and anytime TD bets. Kraft has been by far Love's most trusted and reliable red-zone target this season.

My Picks:

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides:

  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in 10 of their last 15 games
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Commanders have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Commanders have won the first quarter in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in six of their last 11 games.
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last 16 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 23 games.
  • They are 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 18 games as favorites.
  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last eight games following a win.
  • In five of the Buccaneers' last seven games, the first score has been a Buccaneers Touchdown.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Buccaneers have won 15 of their last 16 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • Tampa Bay is 8-4-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 13 games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in six of their last nine games.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 20 games.
  • The Buccaneers are 13-5 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 games as underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last 13 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
  • The underdogs have won nine of the last 24 Buccaneers' games.
  • Tampa Bay is 4-4 ATS against the NFC South, with two losses against the Falcons.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Commanders' last 12 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Commanders’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eighteen of the Commanders’ last 25 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Commanders are 6-3 O/U at home, averaging over 51 points per game.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 8-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 18-4 toward the OVER.
  • Washington has the fifth-highest scoring offense in the NFL (28.5) and sixth-best red-zone offense.
  • Each of the Commanders' last seven games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Buccaneers’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Buccaneers' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 12-5 O/U this season (6-3 at home, averaging nearly 51 points per game).
  • The Buccaneers score the 4th-most points per game in the NFL (28.5) and have the NFL's 4th-best red zone touchdown percentage.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 45 points total at home since 2023 (7-10 record toward the over).

Overall:

The Commanders have won their last five games. They have taken care of inferior opponents but have struggled when tasked to go up in weight class.

Washington has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games against teams with winning records. Jayden Daniels is 3-3 ATS as an underdog this year.

Their offensive line struggled so much last week against Dallas that Dan Quinn was forced to get Daniels out of the game in the second half of Week 18.

The Buccaneers are coming off another wacky game against the New Orleans Saints. They were forced to stage a fourth-quarter comeback and emerged victorious. But they were nowhere near covering the two-TD spread. Tampa Bay's defense couldn't get off the field against rookie QB Spencer Rattler, and their offense failed to convert in the red zone in the first half.

Rattler threw for 240 passing yards with tight end Juwan Johnson as his No. 1 pass-catcher.

The Buccaneers are such a boom-or-bust team from both an offensive and defensive perspective.

Mayfield can be a turnover machine, and the defense blitzes like crazy. You love that when they are underdogs to create chaos, but it makes them extremely vulnerable as favorites when they need to win by a specific margin.

Like I said last week, fading Mayfield as a home favorite laying points works out more often than not.

Among all the games on Wildcard Weekend, this has to be my least confident pick. And therefore, I'll just roll with the underdog catching the points in what is looking like a potential shootout. The best value is to take the Commanders on the ML (+140).

As I mentioned earlier, Washington is in 3-3 ATS as an underdog. Aside from the two blow-outs (one loss and one win for the Commanders), each game was decided by one score or less.

In terms of offensive efficiency, the Commanders/Buccaneers also rank inside the top 3 in touchdowns, yards and EPA/play in the fourth quarter. I think we get a photo finish on Sunday Night Football that comes down to the final fourth-quarter possession.

As for the total, I love the over, even at the high number (50.5). This is the best bet to make on this game.

Tampa Bay games have gone over at an extremely high rate this season, especially in home games. I'd also like to point out that every single game the Buccaneers have played that has been a spread of +/- 4.5 points or less (eight games) has all gone OVER the closing line total.

Props:

The Commanders’ rookie quarterback has exceeded his passing yards projection in three straight games this season (when healthy), and that streak should continue against Tampa Bay. Take the over on his 235.5 passing yards in Week 19.

His rushing yards prop is also a strong bet to make. He has 60-plus rushing yards in his last three full starts. He also hit 88 rushing yards in the first matchup versus the blitz-heavy Buccaneers defense back in Week 1.

In the Commanders’ Week 18 backfield, Austin Ekeler contributed 12 yards on three carries (4.0 yards per carry), while Brian Robinson was limited to just 10 yards on five attempts (2.0 yards per carry).

Ekeler returned from IR and immediately stepped into a sizeable role. Led the backfield with a 60% snap share to Robinson's 40%.

Unfortunately, the former Alabama running back didn't score for the third straight week. And it won't get easier against a run-stuffing Buccaneers defense in the Wildcard Round.

The Buccaneers defense contacted Saints ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage on 14 of 18 designed runs (77.8%), the 6th-highest rate by a defense in a game this season. Overall, the Buccaneers allowed a season-low -16 rushing yards before contact against designed runs on the day via Next Gen Stats.

Receiving-wise, Terry McLaurin had a strong performance with 62 yards on eight catches, including a touchdown to win the game in the fourth quarter.

McLaurin has a juicy matchup on deck versus the Buccaneers' pass-funnel defense in the first round of the postseason. Take the OVER on his receiving yards in Week 19.

Zach Ertz fell short of his lofty contract incentives as he needed nine catches for 90 yards and two TDs in Week 18.

Regardless, TB is a great spot for him to continue his hot streak. He has over 38.5 receiving yards in his last two games. Eight of the last 10 TEs TB has faced have gone OVER their receiving yards projection.

Baker Mayfield's passing performance was efficient as he completed 21 of 32 passes for 221 yards, throwing for two touchdowns while taking one interception. Mayfield has gone OVER his passing yards in five of the last seven games.

Mike Evans has 68-plus receiving yards in seven straight games.

Jalen McMillan was another key contributor, hauling in 5 receptions for 74 yards and scoring one touchdown with a long reception of 33 yards.

It's been five straight strong games for Jalen McMillan-19% Target share, 7 TDs, and 63 receiving yards per game with 24 catches for 316 yards and 7 TDS.

Four out of five straight overs with at least 54 receiving yards. More than 53.5 receiving yards on Wildcard Weekend? Yes, please.

On the ground, running back Bucky Irving was the standout performer in Week 18, rushing 19 times for 89 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and scoring a touchdown with a long of 25 yards. Irving played 72% of the snaps to Rachaad White's 27% snap rate.

Irving out-touched White 45 to 7 in the last two weeks, including 21 to 1 in Week 18.

We should see plenty of TDs on Sunday night, so I like taking some longer shots on under-the-radar Commanders pieces. Most notably, Dyami Brown. He is a big-play threat and was the target leader in the first half of last week's game (four targets). He reclaimed his role as the No. 3 WR, and he should see ample opportunities to collect targets in a high-scoring affair.

My Picks:

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