After an excellent showing during Wild Card Weekend, I had a rough go of it last weekend with my Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) picks. Hopefully, I can redeem myself with my picks for the NFC Championship Game.
Below are my picks for Sunday’s game between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. The previous two meetings this year between these two NFC East rivals produced 13 touchdowns, so we could see some fireworks on Sunday. Interestingly, the home team in each game scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone.
I tracked these bets during the regular season using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown bets and 0.1 units on first touchdown bets. Whether you play one or all, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.
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NFC Championship TD Scorers Prop Bets: Commanders vs. Eagles
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL games? The Anytime Touchdown market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
Washington Commanders Touchdown Pick: Dyami Brown (WR – WAS)
- Anytime TD Odds: +350 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +850 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +2200 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Washington scored seven touchdowns in the two meetings with Philadelphia during the regular season. Quarterback Jayden Daniels looks anything but a rookie playing in his first postseason. Because of that, there are several viable options here. However, the Eagles allowed a league-low five touchdowns to opposing running backs during the regular season. They also gave up just three rushing scores to enemy quarterbacks.
That caused me to shy away from Brian Robinson Jr. (+200 for an anytime touchdown on FanDuel Sportsbook), Austin Ekeler (+320) and Daniels (+230). Philadelphia also ranked third in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) versus tight ends, which got me off of Zach Ertz (+290). Instead, I am going with wide receiver Dyami Brown, who has emerged as a legitimate threat in the postseason.
In 63 regular season games, Brown had never caught more than four passes in a single game. And in only one of those 63 games, he recorded more than 57 receiving yards. He tied for the team lead with 89 yards and a touchdown while catching all five targets in the Wild Card Round. Brown followed that performance by securing six of his eight targets for a team-high 98 yards in last week’s win over Detroit.
Brown lines up all over the offensive formation, but he will often operate against Darius Slay. Despite not having much regular season success in his career, Brown has gotten the better of the veteran corner in their head-to-head matchups. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Brown has 92 receiving yards on 30 career snaps in Slay’s coverage. Based on the pricing, I would rather bet on Brown to score than Terry McLaurin. McLaurin’s best anytime touchdown price is +135 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Eagles Touchdown Pick: A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)
- Anytime TD Odds: +160 at BetMGM
- First Team TD Odds: +550 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1000 at ESPN Bet
The Philadelphia Eagles scored six touchdowns in the regular season versus the Commanders. Saquon Barkley accounted for four, totaling 348 yards from scrimmage in the process. Undoubtedly, he is the player on the Eagles most likely to score. But that does not make him the best bet. The best price for a Barkley touchdown is -225 on DraftKings Sportsbook. I can’t pay that price. His best first touchdown price is +350 on BetMGM, which is palatable.
However, if you spent $9 on a Barkley anytime touchdown bet and $2 on a first touchdown bet, he would have to score the first touchdown just for you to break even. I do not claim to offer financial advice, but that is not how I would choose to invest. I will go with A.J. Brown instead.
Brown scored a first-quarter touchdown in the last game between these two teams despite Jalen Hurts leaving with a concussion. Brown tied his season high in receptions in that game, catching eight for 97 yards. The Eagles are the best rushing team remaining in the playoffs. However, with quarterback Jalen Hurts dealing with an injury, he may be less likely to run.
More importantly, I expect Washington to dare him to throw to beat them. That is not to say they will limit Barkley and Hurts completely. But I expect them to stack the box and see if Hurts can beat them with his arm. The Commanders play man coverage at a high rate, and Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL versus man coverage. I expect Brown to make his presence felt in this game, including scoring a touchdown.
Longshot Touchdown Pick: Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
- Anytime TD Odds: +350 at ESPN Bet
- First Team TD Odds: +950 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1800 at Bet365
For my longshot touchdown pick in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, I am going with Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert. And yes, if you are keeping score, I also picked Goedert last week, and he failed to score. However, he has easily been the team’s most consistent pass-catcher in the playoffs.
Goedert led the team last week with 56 receiving yards. The week prior, he had a team-high six targets on just 21 pass attempts from Hurts. Hurts is averaging only 3.9 yards per dropback during the playoffs. But he and Goedert have hooked up on eight passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. I like their chances of keeping that momentum through Sunday’s matchup with Washington.
The Commanders ranked 26th in the NFL this season in DVOA versus opposing tight ends. Goedert missed the last game against Washington but caught all five passes for 61 yards in their previous meeting. During the playoffs, Washington allowed the combination of Cade Otton and Sam LaPorta to record eight receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown.
If the Commanders continue to blitz at a high rate and play man coverage behind it, Goedert should be highly involved. I mentioned above that A.J. Brown is elite versus man coverage. Indeed, he is second in the NFL (regular season plus postseason) in yards per route run against man coverage among 119 players with at least 15 targets. Care to venture a guess as to who is third on that list? That would be Goedert, whose 3.83 mark trails only Brown and Nico Collins. This is an elite matchup for Goedert, and I love the pricing involved for his touchdown props.
