NFL Playoffs TD Scorers Picks & Predictions: Broncos vs. Bills (Wild Card Sunday)
During the regular season, I would select one player for each NFL game to back with both Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) bets. Now that the NFL Postseason is upon us, it is time to kick things up a notch.
I will be making three picks for each game covered. I will choose one player from each team for anytime touchdown bets and first touchdown bets. More than half of my successful anytime touchdown picks this year scored his team's first touchdown. I will also be making one longshot pick.
I tracked these bets during the regular season using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown picks and 0.1 units on first touchdown picks. Whether you play one or all of them, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets. Below are my picks for Sunday’s Wild Card matchup between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills.
- NFL Player Prop Bets
- NFL PrizePicks Player Predictions
- NFL Consensus Odds
- NFL Expert Game Predictions
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Best NFL Wild Card TD Scorer Prop Bets: Broncos at Bills
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime Touchdown market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
Denver Broncos Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +260 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +550 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +2000 at Caesars Sportsbook
The Buffalo Bills are heavy favorites in their matchup with the upstart Denver Broncos. Because of that and Denver's 24th-ranked run offense, I cannot back any Broncos running back with my touchdown pick. Instead, I am going with Marvin Mims Jr. The second-year wide receiver has emerged as an ideal complement to No. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton in recent weeks. In his last two outings, Mims has scored four touchdowns while securing all 13 of his targets.
All six of Mims’ touchdowns this year have come in the last seven weeks. During this stretch, he has performed at an elite level versus zone coverage. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Mims’ 3.54 yards per route run versus zone coverage since Week 12 is the third-highest mark in the NFL among 135 players with at least 10 targets.
The Buffalo Bills play zone coverage at an above-average rate. They are likely to focus on containing Sutton, which could open up some opportunities for Mims to operate. I like Mims to keep his torrid pace going and score for Denver on Sunday.
Buffalo Bills Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +340 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +600 at BetMGM
From a scoring perspective, the Buffalo Bills have been led by the duo of quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook. Cook has scored 18 touchdowns this year, while Allen scored 12 rushing touchdowns. I do not mind picking Cook here, but I worry about his matchup more so than Allen's.
The Denver Broncos are in the top five of NFL defenses when defending opposing running backs this year. They have allowed just seven rushing touchdowns to opposing backs, which is tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. Denver has also allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to the position. The Broncos have been closer to league average when it comes to defending quarterbacks in the run game. And, of course, Allen is not your average quarterback in terms of rushing ability.
Allen's 12 rushing touchdowns this season were second-most at the quarterback position and tied for ninth-most among all players. And while Cook has a slight edge in the touchdown department, he and Allen have split carries down by the goal line this year. Each player has carried the ball 11 times inside their opponents' 5-yard line this season. Cook's 11 carries have resulted in six touchdowns, while Allen has parlayed his 11 carries into seven scores. I give Allen the edge over Cook to score. He also has slightly better odds. Because of that, Allen is my preferred anytime touchdown and first touchdown pick for this game.
Longshot Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +650 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +2100 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +3200 at FanDuel Sportsbook
While Denver has been elite defensively in limiting rushing production from opposing running backs, they have struggled mightily to contain pass-catching backs. The Broncos rank 31st in the NFL in DVOA versus running backs in the passing game. They have allowed six receiving touchdowns to opposing backs, which is tied for second-most in the league.
Ty Johnson led Bills backs in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns this season. If Buffalo sets out to exploit this deficiency in Denver's defense, Johnson is the player they are most likely to utilize. The odds on Johnson's touchdown props are worth a sprinkle given his role and the Broncos' weakness in defending pass-catching running backs.