Matthew Freedman’s 2022 NFL Projected Win Totals & Bets
As a full-on degenerate and aspiring sharp, Iâve recently created a projection model (a.k.a. a multi-colored spreadsheet) for NFL spreads and over/unders.
This model, which takes into account home-field advantage and a number of other factors, is driven primarily by my proprietary power ratings. âProprietary,â because only my brain is wild enough to assign some of these neutral-site opponent-agnostic numbers to these teams.
What are the factors that I take into account when creating and adjusting my power ratings? I obviously look at some basic stats â like #QBWinz and #SuperBowlVictories â but after that I consider two main sources of data.
- The betting market itself, specifically odds to win the Super Bowl, conference and division: This helps me anchor my rankings to a âskin in the gameâ-based reality.
- On-field team-level statistics (with some player-focused adjustments), specifically expected points added (EPA), success rate and yards per play: This helps me (hopefully) maintain a degree of objectivism.
With my power ratings, I can use my model to create projected spreads for every NFL game in the regular season â and then I can convert these spreads into win probabilities, which I can add together to get a projected win total for each team.
And thatâs exactly what Iâve done.
In this piece, youâll see my projected 2022 win totals, which â when compared to the win totals on our BettingPros odds page â highlight several exploitable opportunities in the betting market.