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NFL Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 11)

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NFL Week 11 is here, and it's time to lock in some best bets and props before the games kick off. We have some exciting Week 11 games on the Sunday slate, featuring Chiefs vs. Bills and Ravens vs. Steelers. Picking matchups against the spread and betting on the over/under is more commonplace, but a Same Game Parlay (SGP) gives us even more added action. Let's find some plus-money SGP picks for every game on the NFL Week 11 Sunday afternoon slate.

Keep in mind the odds below are accurate as of writing but are always subject to change up until kickoff. Keep track of any of the latest NFL injury news and odds movement before locking in any of these SGP bets. Without further ado, let's dive into the best NFL Week 11 Same Game Parlay bets.

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Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets (Week 11)

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

The Packers and Bears meet up in an NFC North showdown as we kick off this SGP article. Both teams have vastly different storylines and narratives ahead of this divisional matchup. Green Bay (6-3) is coming off its bye after losing at home to Detroit the week prior. Chicago (4-5) has now lost three straight games with the offense in a putrid state. 

The Bears have mustered only 12 combined points over the past two weeks, leading to the firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week. Passing game coordinator Thomas Brown will take over play-calling duties, but that change likely won't fix things overnight. Caleb Williams hasn't thrown a touchdown over the past three games and has been sacked a league-high 38 times already. Plus, there's the whole rumor of Bears players pushing for Tyson Bagent to start over Williams. 

The Green Bay defense has been up and down this season, but the week off should help it get healthier, especially getting top cornerback Jaire Alexander back. The defense has been better against worse offenses this year and should be dialed in to force Williams into mistakes. The Bears are also dealing with multiple injuries along the offensive line. 

On the other side, the Packers should have some success offensively. However, Chicago is holding its own defensively, allowing just 18.6 PPG this season (7th in NFL). The unit has held opponents to less than 20 points in seven of nine games so far. The Bears' pass defense is one of the best in the league, allowing 190.4 pass yards per game (7th) with a 77.4 quarterback rating against (2nd). 

Jordan Love and the passing game could be held in check. The Packers should lean on the ground game, with Chicago allowing 4.8 yards per carry (28th) and 133.0 rush yards per game (24th). It's a good matchup for Josh Jacobs to rack up yards. He's averaging 84.7 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry with 70+ yards in six of nine contests. The Bears have given up 70+ yards to an RB in six of nine games as well. 

With the offensive coordinator change, it should give Chicago's passing game a jolt. Brown mentioned in his press conference this week that he wants to get the ball to their playmakers more. D.J. Moore fits that mold as the team leader in receptions this season. He's been quiet lately but, ideally, will get more targets in the Bears' quick passing attack. 

Parlay Odds: +550

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

The Jaguars and Lions are moving in opposite directions right now. Detroit is now on a seven-game winning streak following last week's improbable comeback victory over Houston. Jacksonville, on the other hand, is 2-8 on the season and will be without Trevor Lawrence again this weekend. Unsurprisingly, the Lions are favored by double digits at home here. 

The spread may scare some away, but it's this big for a reason. The Jaguars looked helpless on offense last week with Mac Jones at quarterback, mustering only 7 points and 143 total yards. It's hard to imagine much improvement on the road with Detroit allowing 19.0 PPG (8th in NFL). The way to beat the Lions defense is through the air, and Jones cannot exploit that enough. 

Detroit failed to cover as road favorites last game but are still 7-2 ATS this season. We have a few other notable ATS trends backing the Lions here too. Jared Goff has a 64% cover rate at home since 2018, the best mark of any quarterback. He's also 7-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Plus, after Detroit failed to cover in the previous game, it's 14-4 ATS overall and 9-2 ATS at home with Goff at quarterback. On the other side, Mac Jones is 4-15 ATS in his past 19 starts as an underdog. 

Last week, Goff experienced serious negative regression with five interceptions and just a 50% completion rate. Yet, the Lions still pulled out the win. Goff should have an easier time at home against a Jaguars secondary that's giving up the third-most passing yards per game and the highest QB rating. The Jags have allowed at least 225 pass yards to opposing quarterbacks in seven of 10 games this year. Goff has 240+ in five of the past eight contests too. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown has now scored a touchdown in seven straight games, a franchise record. It'll likely end at some point, but this is a great matchup for him to keep it going. The Jags have given up 19 receiving scores in 10 games. They're due to allow one this week after keeping the Vikings out of the end zone last game. 

Parlay Odds: +415

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans

It wasn't pretty, but Minnesota pulled out the 12-7 win at Jacksonville last week to improve to 7-2 on the year. The Vikings now have to play a second straight AFC South opponent on the road as they head to Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Titans lost again last week to fall to 2-7. 

The total is low for this matchup for good reason. The Vikings offense hasn't been as efficient or consistent as it was earlier in the year. Sam Darnold, specifically, has come back down to Earth after such a hot start. Over the past five games, Darnold has a 6:7 TD:INT ratio, and he threw three picks last week. This Titans are allowing a league-low 156.7 passing yards per game and can slow down Minnesota through the air.

On the other side, Tennessee continues to underwhelm offensively - ranking 27th in both points and total yards per game. The offense has also turned it over 17 times in 9 games, the third-most giveaways in the league. Will Levis returned last week and showed flashes, but he still hasn't had two good games in a row in his NFL career. 

Now Levis has to face the blitz-heavy Vikings defense, allowing only 17.4 PPG (3rd in NFL) with the second-best rush defense. If Minnesota can shut down Tennessee's run game, it will put too much responsibility on Levis to lead the offense - something he hasn't shown he can consistently do. Last week against the Chargers' upper-tier defense, the Titans scored just 10 points until a garbage-time score in the final minute. 

Minnesota also has the most takeaways in the league, with 20 through nine games. The Vikings also boast a league-high 15 interceptions thus far. The defense also picked off opposing QBs in all but one game this season (Detroit's Jared Goff). Levis has thrown seven picks in his six games and has an interception in all but one - which was last week. 

Aaron Jones left the last game with a chest injury but is trending towards playing this week. The injury makes including him in a parlay risky, but this is a good spot. The Titans are more beatable on the ground than through the air. Last week against the Chargers, they allowed 105 combined rush yards to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. They also gave up 127 yards to Jahmyr Gibbs three games ago. 

Meanwhile, the Vikings should want to lean on the ground with Darnold struggling a bit lately. The matchup will allow that, and if Minnesota is leading in the second half, the game script could lead to a more run-heavy game plan. Jones has 60+ rush yards in six of nine games, with 58 in another. He's also averaging 75.8 ypg over the past four weeks. 

Parlay Odds: +500

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins got a much-needed win on Monday night to barely stay alive in the AFC Wild Card picture. The Raiders are coming off their bye week while still stuck in a five-game losing streak. We have two underperforming offenses involved here, so grab the under to kick off this SGP.

Although the Dolphins had looked better offensively with Tua Tagovailoa back, they took a step back last week. Miami only put up 238 total yards of offense against a beatable Rams defense. If Jason Sanders didn't go 3-for-3 on field goals, including two 50-yarders, Miami possibly could've lost the game with less than 20 points scored. 

The Miami offensive attack is leaving a lot to be desired right now. Tua isn't throwing downfield as much. Tyreek Hill isn't at 100%. The run game mustered only 67 yards last week. For an offense that relies on explosive plays, those aren't consistently there like we're used to. 

The Raiders, meanwhile, can show some fight defensively out of the bye. Antonio Pierce's team should benefit from the reset after getting torched by Cincinnati in the previous game. In two instances with extended rest last year, the Pierce-led Raiders held the Chiefs and Vikings to only 17 combined points. 

Meanwhile, it's hard to get excited about the Las Vegas offense right now. Gardner Minshew will start at quarterback again out of the bye. The Raiders are averaging 19.4 PPG when Minshew has played this season. Though the Miami offense had question marks last week, the defense looked good for the majority of the night. The Dolphins' top-10 pass defense is a problem for a Raiders attack that has little to no run game. 

Despite taking the under, we can still back some props in this one. De'Von Achane has proven to be a dangerous pass-catcher out of the backfield for Miami. While he only had 15 receiving yards last week, he caught all five of his targets. He also still has 7+ catches and 50+ yards in four of the five games that Tagovailoa has played this year. 

On the Raiders side of things, Minshew has two clear favorite targets in Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. Let's look at Bowers, who is averaging 64.4 yards per game with 40+ in eight of nine games this year. He also has 5+ catches in seven of eight games that Minshew has played.

Parlay Odds: +415

Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots

The Rams (4-5) are coming off a poor Monday night showing in a 23-15 loss to Miami. Meanwhile, the Patriots pulled off a 19-3 road upset over Chicago last week and have quietly won two of their last three games. We now have Los Angeles favored by more than a field goal on the road here. 

Despite the Patriots' recent success, this is still a very flawed team. The New England defense has been better lately but it's also faced some poor offenses in the Bears, Titans, and Jets in the past three. The last time we saw the unit face a good attack, it allowed 41 points to Houston. Though Drake Maye has shown improvement, he's still operating behind a poor offensive line with a notable lack of playmakers around him. 

The Patriots are bound to regress back to the bottom-tier level we saw earlier in the season. They've covered three straight games as underdogs but went 0-5 ATS in the previous five contests. 

On the other side, the Rams should bounce back after losing last week. They won three straight beforehand and are now arguably the healthiest they've been all season. We have some interesting ATS trends backing LA here too. Sean McVay is 10-1 ATS in his last 11 games on short rest. The Rams are also 6-1 ATS on short rest with Matthew Stafford. We can trust the veteran quarterback and smart coach to rebound in this spot. 

Speaking of Stafford, he's now thrown an interception in six straight games - tying a career-high streak. He's too good and experienced to continue turning the ball over. Bank on him ending that streak with a better performance. The Patriots only have four interceptions through 10 games this season. 

Meanwhile, let's roll with a Hunter Henry prop. The tight end has been a favorite target and safety option for the rookie Maye. Henry has 41, 92, 56, and 14 receiving yards in Maye's four full games this season. He also has 40+ in four of the past five games overall, averaging 49.6 YPG in this stretch. The Rams are allowing 58.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. They've also given up at least 34 yards to a tight end in six of eight games and 50+ in five of those. 

Parlay Odds: +435

Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints pulled off the improbable upset of Atlanta last week to snap their seven-game losing streak. As impressive as that was, this is still a team with major questions and issues on both sides of the ball. New Orleans can just as easily revert back to the disappointing version we saw during the recent losing slump. 

Besides Alvin Kamara, the Saints offense is lacking difference-makers and reliable playmakers. Derek Carr made do with an underwhelming receiving corps last week, but the Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed absences are still glaring. It's basically Kamara or bust for the banged-up offense right now. Cleveland's defense, meanwhile, is good enough to limit this offense. They're coming out of a bye week in a healthier state and with a top-10 pass rush. 

On the other side, we should expect improvement offensively from Cleveland out of the bye. It's another week of prep for Jameis Winston to get more comfortable. Plus, Nick Chubb is closer to full strength. The Browns can take advantage of a Saints defense that's allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game and the sixth-most rushing yards per game. 

It's interesting that this game has flipped from the Saints as favorites to Cleveland being favored on the road. The Browns have advantages on both sides of the ball and it should lead to a Browns victory. There could also be some letdown for New Orleans after getting the interim coach a win last week - especially with its own bye coming up next. 

The Nick Chubb breakout game is bound to come at some point soon. Could it be this week off a bye against a soft New Orleans rush defense? Let's at least bank on him exceeding the above prop. The Saints are allowing 141.0 rush yards per game (27th in NFL) and 5.1 yards per carry (31st). They've given up 70+ yards to an opposing rusher in six of the past eight games. 

Out of necessity, Kamara is seeing a consistent pass-catching volume in the Saints offense. He has at least five catches in seven straight games. Kamara also has 50+ receiving yards in three straight and 40+ in seven of the past nine contests. It's a low bar for him to hit and he should get there even if the Saints don't have much success offensively overall. 

Parlay Odds: +470

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

Two weeks ago, the Jets beat the Texans on Thursday Night Football to break a losing streak and convince everyone they were back. Then, they turned back into a pumpkin last week in an embarrassing 31-6 loss to Arizona. We have no idea what we're getting from New York week-to-week at this point.

The Jets are home favorites over Indianapolis this weekend, but who's to say what version we get? Meanwhile, the Colts have lost three straight after a 30-20 deficit to Buffalo last week. The spread and total are both a bit in no man’s land for this matchup, so stay away from the SGP. Instead, let's look at the Colts team total and target two-player props. 

Anthony Richardson is back as the Colts starting quarterback this week. Richardson has an ugly 44.4% completion rate and a 4:7 TD:INT ratio in six games this year. Although the Jets have been exposed multiple times defensively this season, it's hard to see Richardson doing that on the road here. The Colts are averaging 18.8 PPG in Richardson's five full games and 22.8 PPG with Flacco at quarterback. The passing attack is less dangerous with Richardson and Indy likely goes with a run-focused game plan to manage his throwing inefficiencies. 

With that in mind, the Colts should feed Jonathan Taylor and lean on the run game to take pressure off Richardson. The Jets are allowing 134.0 rushing yards per game (25th in NFL). The defense has allowed at least 97 yards to an opposing rusher in three of the past five games. Taylor has 88 or more yards in five of his past six games while averaging 94.7 YPG in this stretch. 

The Colts run defense is one of the worst in the league, allowing 148.3 rushing yards per game (30th in NFL). It's a great matchup for Breece Hall to also have success on the ground. He hasn't been the most productive game-to-game but is averaging 71.4 rush yards per game over the past five contests. The Colts have allowed 60+ yards to an opposing RB in four straight games and six of 10 overall this season. 

Parlay Odds: +548 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Both Pittsburgh and Baltimore are coming off narrow one-point victories last week ahead of this rivalry matchup. The Ravens survived last Thursday night's thriller over Cincinnati while the Steelers eked out a road win at Washington. Both games were in the balance in the final minutes and it sets up this pivotal NFC North clash.

There's no denying how good the Ravens have been offensively. Lamar Jackson is the MVP favorite, while the offense leads the league in total yards and points per game. However, the Achilles heel for Baltimore is its worrisome pass defense. The secondary is allowing league-highs in passing yards per game (294.9) and passing touchdowns (22). The struggles against the pass have allowed good teams to hang around all year, and it almost cost them last week. 

Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh offense can exploit those issues. Wilson has been impressive in his three starts so far and he's still among the best downfield throwers in the league. The Steelers are averaging 30.3 PPG with Wilson at quarterback and have the upside to go toe-to-toe with Baltimore's high-powered offense. 

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh defense is stout against the run, allowing 87.1 rush yards per game (4th in NFL). If the unit can quiet Derrick Henry enough, it'll force Jackson to be at his best passing-wise. Of course, Jackson's legs are a major factor. However, Pittsburgh has defended him well throughout his career. 

Besides all of the X's and O's, check out all of these ATS trends backing Pittsburgh. Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series has covered 74% of the spreads and is 22-4-3 ATS when the line is three points or more (76%). The underdog is also 15-2-1 ATS since 2015 in these games. 

Mike Tomlin is 12-2-2 ATS as an underdog against John Harbaugh in their careers. The Steelers are already 3-0 SU as a dog this season and could win this one outright too. Tomlin is also 19-6-3 ATS as a home underdog over the years. Lamar Jackson, on the other hand, only covers at a 34% rate as a favorite between three and 10 points. It's a lot of data, but it all points to Pitt here. 

We alluded to it above, but Lamar Jackson has struggled against Pittsburgh. He has a 4:7 TD:INT ratio in his career vs. the Steelers, with a pick thrown in each game. The Ravens also haven't beaten their division rivals with Jackson at quarterback since 2019 - a three-point overtime win. They are the bogeyman for Jackson, and Tomlin will have his team ready to frustrate Jackson enough to force mistakes. 

As noted above, Wilson and the Steelers passing attack can have success against Baltimore's questionable secondary. The Ravens are giving up 314.4 pass yards per game to opposing QBs this year and just got torched for 428 by Joe Burrow last week. They've allowed at least 223 yards to all but one QB too. Wilson has thrown for 264, 278, and 195 yards in his three games so far. 

Parlay Odds: +415

Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos

The Falcons and Broncos are both coming off close divisional losses ahead of this week's matchup. Atlanta suffered a poor upset at New Orleans despite being favored on the road. The Broncos, meanwhile, had an upset of their own brewing until Kansas City blocked the game-winning field goal. It's a tough spot for both teams to rebound, but we should have more confidence in Denver doing it at home. 

The Broncos have lost consecutive games to the Ravens and Chiefs now. The results are very understandable, especially with both losses coming on the road. Despite falling short last week, Denver can take away some positives to build off. The defense held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to just 16 points while shutting down the run game. Vance Joseph's defense is playing at a high level, ranking top-5 in both total yards and points allowed per game. 

Denver's blitz-heavy defense with elite man-coverage schemes makes it tough on opposing quarterbacks. Only one quarterback (Lamar Jackson) has had any meaningful success against the defense this year. Kirk Cousins has shown flashes this year, but he's struggled against the blitz. The Broncos' talented corners can limit Drake London and Darnell Mooney enough to hold the Atlanta offense in check. 

On the other side, Bo Nix continues to impress in his rookie season. Sean Payton is regularly putting him in the best situations to succeed. Nix will face an Atlanta defense that's allowing a league-high 70.3% completion rate with just nine sacks through 10 games. If he's comfortable in the pocket, Nix should have another productive day. 

The emergence of Audric Estime as a power running back adds another dimension to the Broncos offense. The rookie had a "breakout" game last week with 14 carries for 53 yards to lead the Denver backfield. He also logged a season-high snap share, while Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams combined for just three carries. Payton noted that Estime would get more work, and it showed last week - against a top-tier Chiefs rush defense, no less. Now he faces an Atlanta defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry (17th in NFL) and 129.4 rush yards per game (20th). 

Denver is strong against the run, and the man-heavy coverages could bottle up the Falcons' receivers. In turn, Bijan Robinson's role as a pass-catcher should be elevated. The Broncos are allowing 43.8 receiving yards per game to running backs as other opposing teams have fallen into that trend. Robinson has 25+ receiving yards in seven of 10 games this year while averaging 33.1 per game. 

Parlay Odds: +410

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

This is already the second time we'll see Seahawks vs. 49ers this season. The divisional rivals faced off in Week 6 as San Francisco took the 36-24 road victory. Now the Niners are at home and nearly touchdown favorites. There's some value on Seattle to keep this within a touchdown on the alt spread, though. 

The Seahawks are coming off their bye week after back-to-back home losses. The break should help on both sides of the ball. Geno Smith had been up-and-down, but there's more upside and a higher floor with D.K. Metcalf expected back from injury. In Metcalf's absence, the offense averaged just 15 PPG over the past two games compared to 25.7 PPG in the seven games with him. Starting right tackle Abe Lucas is also expected to make his season debut for Seattle, which is a big boost to the offensive line. 

San Francisco's offense is obviously a lot more dangerous now, with Christian McCaffrey back in the mix. Still, the Niners have had struggles in the red zone this season - ranking 28th in red zone touchdown rate. Seattle's defense can hold its own even on the road. The bye allowed the unit to get fully healthy, and Mike Macdonald had two weeks to prepare for this San Fran attack. 

When these teams played earlier in the season, it was a 5-point game until the 49ers got a final touchdown with 1:17 left to build a double-digit lead. Seattle showed fight to erase a big first-half deficit and make it close. Bank on the Seahawks to learn from that game and their recent losses to make this one competitive. 

McCaffrey made his season debut last week and immediately racked up 107 total yards. It was also a good sign to see him get 19 touches with an 88% snap share right away. There was no slow ramp-up for CMC and he should be plenty involved again this week. Seattle's defense is allowing 139.4 rushing yards per game (26th in NFL), and it's giving up over 150 combined yards per game to running backs this year. 

Kenneth Walker's yardage production has been very inconsistent this season. Still, he's found the end zone seven times in seven games, and he's due this week after going scoreless in the past two contests. The 49ers have allowed 11 rushing scores in nine games, including at least one rushing score in all but two games. 

Parlay Odds: +525

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills 

Welcome to the marquee matchup of the weekend (apologies to Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh). This AFC clash between the Chiefs and Bills has produced numerous classics ever since Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes entered the league. Hopefully, we get another one! 

It took a blocked field goal at the end of regulation to get past the Broncos last week, but the Chiefs survived yet again to remain undefeated. Kansas City has now won seven of its nine games by one score but continues to find ways to pull out victories. This is a fade-at-your-own-risk territory, even though a loss seems inevitable soon. 

Meanwhile, the Bills are on a five-game winning streak of their own, with three of the last four coming by double digits. Plain and simple, Buffalo is playing at a higher level than KC right now, and those recent comfortable wins are evidence. The Chiefs' presumed regression and Buffalo's advantages at home are tough to argue against. Still, we're rolling with the road dogs to kick off this SGP. 

The ATS trends are impossible to ignore, with Kansas City as an underdog. Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS and 11-3 straight up as an underdog in his career. He continues to come through in this spot. Andy Reid's Chiefs are also 18-5-1 ATS as dogs since 2016. 

We could go with the current spread of less than a field goal but snag the alt line of +8.5 just to be safe. Getting that 8-point cushion could be huge. The Chiefs have only one loss of 9+ points in the past three seasons combined. 

When Josh Allen faces the Chiefs, he tends to run more. Allen has at least 10 rush attempts in five straight games vs. KC, and he's averaging 10.1 carries for 56.1 yards over the past seven meetings. The Chiefs have a strong run defense, which could shut down James Cook and force Allen to make more plays with his legs on scrambles and/or designed runs. Either way, Allen seems to take it upon himself to run in these showdowns vs. Mahomes.

Travis Kelce is another guy who has regularly shown up in these big games against Buffalo. He's averaging 86 receiving yards per game in the past seven matchups vs. Buffalo, with at least 75 yards in five of the past six. Since Rashee Rice went down, Kelce has been a focal point in the Chiefs passing attack - even with DeAndre Hopkins in town. He's averaging 71.7 yards and 8.7 receptions per game in the six games with Rice out, including 70+ in four of those. 

Parlay Odds: +445

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