NFL Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 16 (2024)

by Dan Servodidio |
Dec 21, 2024

NFL Week 16 is here, and itâ€™s time to lock in some best bets and props before the games kick-off. The Sunday Week 16 slate includes two must-see matchups featuring the Eagles vs. Commanders, Vikings vs. Seahawks, and plenty of other exciting games.

Picking matchups against the spread (ATS) and betting on the over/under is more commonplace, but a same-game parlay (SGP) gives us even more added action. Letâ€™s find some plus-money SGP picks for every game on the NFL Week 16 Sunday afternoon slate.

Keep in mind the odds below are accurate as of writing but are always subject to change up until kick-off. Keep track of any of the latest NFL injury news and odds movement before locking in any of these SGP bets. Without further ado, letâ€™s dive into the best NFL Week 16 same-game parlays.

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Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets (Week 16)

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise)

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Leg 1: Commanders Team Total Under 23.5 Points (-175)
Leg 2: Jayden Daniels 40+ Rushing Yards (-130)
Leg 3: Saquon Barkley 90+ Rushing Yards (-160)
Leg 4: Saquon Barkley Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)

In terms of divisional matchups, this Eagles vs. Commanders game is the best of the Sunday slate. Philadelphia is on a 10-game winning streak and looks poised to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Commanders are fighting for a Wild Card spot after winning two straight heading into this weekend.

When these NFC East rivals met in November, the Eagles pulled out a 26-18 victory thanks to 20 fourth-quarter points. The spread indicates we'll see another close game, and Washington could win it outright. Even so, fading Philly has not been profitable lately and they can easily go on the road and take care of business.

There are a few things we can count on, though. The first is that the Eagles top-tier defense should keep Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense in check. Philly is first in both total yards allowed per game (275.6) and total points allowed per game (17.6). The defense hasn't allowed more than 23 points in 10 straight games and in 12 of 14 overall this season.

Washington has benefited from facing easier opponents recently, but it hasn't experienced a good defense since the Eagles game. The Commanders mustered only 264 total yards in that first meeting as Daniels threw for just 191 yards. In that game, Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz were Daniels' favorite receivers. Well, Ekeler is on IR and Ertz is in concussion protocol. Plus, Noah Brown is sidelined for this rematch.

Philadelphia's defense is playing at an elite level and should be prepared to frustrate Daniels and the offense. It knows how to defend Washington after facing it already, and those aforementioned injured weapons could loom large.

On that note, look for Daniels to try to make more plays with his legs. He's been running more lately as he's gotten healthier from the rib injury. The rookie QB has 66, 34, and 74 rush yards in the past three games and is averaging 46.9 rush yards per game this season.

Meanwhile, we can't do a parlay involving the Eagles without including Saquon Barkley. The NFL's leading rusher is averaging 120.8 rush yards per contest and he faces a Washington defense allowing 110.4 yards (27th) and 4.97 yards per carry (31st) to opposing running backs. Barkley had 146 yards on 26 carries vs. the Commanders earlier this season, and he has 90+ yards in 10 of 14 games. He's also averaging 22 carries over the past eight.

Parlay Odds: +485

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Leg 1: Bijan Robinson 100+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (-190)
Leg 2: Bijan Robinson Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Leg 3: Malik Nabers 60+ Receiving Yards (-165)
Leg 4: Daniel Bellinger Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

This week's Giants vs. Falcons matchup features two teams with different starting quarterbacks than they had a week ago. Atlanta made headlines with rookie Michael Penix Jr. replacing Kirk Cousins under center. Meanwhile, New York is going back to Drew Lock as he returns from injury.

Honestly, the spread and total are in stay-away territory with so much uncertainty offensively on both sides. Penix is theoretically a passing upgrade to Cousins, and he gets an easy matchup against a weak Giants defense. But it's still a rookie QB making his first start. Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is still too vulnerable to trust even against New York's offense. Let's just look at some props.

With Penix under center, expect the Falcons to lean on their star playmaker. Bijan Robinson is averaging 108.1 total yards per game this year as both a threat through the air and on the ground. He has 100+ total yards in eight of his last nine games and 10 of 14 overall this season.

The Giants are one of the best matchups for opposing backs, giving up 114.6 rushing yards (30th) and 40.3 receiving yards (27th) per game to RBs.

On the New York side of things, Lock had two favorite options in his two starts: Malik Nabers and tight ends. Nabers had 79 and 69 receiving yards with double-digit targets in both of Lock's starts for the Giants. Bank on that connection continuing as Atlanta is allowing the 8th-most receiving yards and 6th-most receptions per game to wideouts this year.

As for the tight ends, Daniel Bellinger should be a top target for Lock as well. Bellinger had five catches for 45 yards in Lock's most recent start. In the other, fellow tight end Theo Johnson had five grabs for 54 yards. Getting to over 21.5 yards is a low bar for Bellinger and we'll hope Lock looks his way just enough.

Parlay Odds: +550

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Leg 1: Lions 1st Half Team Total Over 13.5 Points (-122)
Leg 2: Lions -3.5 1st Half Spread (-120)
Leg 3: Jahmyr Gibbs 100+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (-340)
Leg 4: D.J. Moore 50+ Receiving Yards (-160)
Leg 5: Caleb Williams Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-165)

Common sense points to the 12-2 Lions easily beating the 4-10 Bears in this NFC North showdown. After losing again last week, Chicago has now lost eight straight games, and it's overmatched in multiple ways here. Detroit will be looking to bounce back after its own loss a week ago.

Still, it's tough to make a call on the full-game spread. The Lions are dealing with a ton of injuries defensively, and they're coming off two straight high-scoring battles. The Bears, though, are 5-1-1 ATS at home this season and only lost by three on the road to Detroit on Thanksgiving. Instead, we'll back the Lions in the first half to start strong.

Detroit is averaging a league-best 18.1 PPG in the first half this year. It's also gone 11-3 ATS in the first half (second-best in NFL). Dan Campbell's squad knows it needs to start the game well offensively because of the defensive issues. Over the past three seasons, the Lions have a 74% cover rate against the first-half spread - including 13-2-1 ATS in the first half vs. NFC North opponents. The Bears, meanwhile, are 4-9-1 ATS in the first half while averaging just 6.9 PPG (31st).

Detroit suffered a big loss this past week when David Montgomery was ruled out for the season. Jahmyr Gibbs is more than capable of taking on a bell-cow role, and he gets a favorable matchup. Craig Reynolds could get some touches, but Gibbs should see the majority of the work. He's averaging 103 total yards per game this season, and that's with Montgomery healthy. Chicago is allowing the second-most rush yards per game to running backs.

In the Bears' offense, D.J. Moore should be productive enough to get to 50+ receiving yards. He's averaging 7.2 receptions and 72 yards over the past five games since Chicago switched coordinators. Moore had eight catches on 16 targets for 97 yards against Detroit last month, which continued an interesting trend. In six career games vs. the Lions, Moore is averaging 104.7 yards per game with at least 68 yards in each and 90+ in four of those six.

Caleb Williams has now gone eight straight games without an interception, and he's likely due to throw a pick soon. It could come this weekend as the Lions have more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13) through 14 games. Detroit's pass defense is also allowing the third-lowest completion rate (61.1%) and second-lowest QB rating (79.7) in the NFL.

Parlay Odds: +525

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Leg 1: Bengals -8.5 (-112)
Leg 2: Dorian Thompson-Robinson 25+ Rushing Yards (-150)
Leg 3: Ja'Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown (-130)

Despite their disappointing season, the Bengals can still make the playoffs if things break their way in these final weeks. Either way, though, they need to win out to have a chance. Cincinnati has won its last two games coming in and should keep things going against the lowly Browns at home.

The Bengals have underperformed against playoff-calibre teams but have taken care of business against the bad ones. They're 6-1 ATS against teams below .500 this season and have covered six straight since losing to New England in Week 1. With Joe Burrow at quarterback, Cincy is also 12-3 ATS vs. teams with losing records since the start of last season.

Cleveland would certainly qualify as a team under .500 with its 3-11 record. After previously being a feisty underdog, the Browns have fallen off with two straight double-digit losses to Pittsburgh and Kansas City. They've now lost four of their last six games by at least 13 points. Cincinnati should win this by multiple scores, and the spread has moved in their direction this week.

The Jameis Winston experience was a fun one but the Browns are now turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. It's only his fourth career start, and the previous three saw Cleveland score a total of 28 points. DTR is a downgrade from Winston despite the latter's poor play recently. The Bengals defense can be exploited by dangerous offenses and quarterbacks, but that's not the case at all this weekend.

One thing we can count on from Thompson-Robinson is his dual-threat ability. Cincinnati is allowing a league-high 30.7 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. When DTR entered in relief earlier this season (coincidentally against the Bengals), he ran for 44 yards in just 45% of the snaps. In three starts last year, he ran for 20+ yards in each. Even last week, in only 14 snaps, Thompson-Robinson had 16 rush yards. When things break down in the pocket, he's a capable and willing runner.

Let's finish the SGP parlay off with a Ja'Marr Chase anytime touchdown. He's been a scoring machine this year, with 15 TDs through 14 games. Chase has found the end zone in all but five games, and he was just held out last week. So, expect him to get back in there against a Cleveland defense that's allowed 20 receiving scores in 14 games.

Parlay Odds: +455

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Leg 1: Mason Rudolph Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
Leg 2: Calvin Ridley Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Leg 3: Anthony Richardson Under 177.5 Passing Yards (-115)

It looks like the Will Levis experiment in Tennessee has come to an end, with Mason Rudolph taking over as the starter this week. It's been a disappointing season for the Titans, who will likely draft their future quarterback in the spring. For now, Rudolph is a slight upgrade over Levis as he gives the offense more of a downfield threat.

The Titans are tempting to back against the spread in this divisional matchup, but their 2-12 ATS mark is impossible to ignore. Plus, the Colts are still alive for an AFC Wild Card spot and have taken care of business against the large majority of bad teams on their schedule. Instead, let's just look at a few props for this matchup.

As noted, Rudolph makes the Titans more dangerous through the air - and it appears they're happy to let him chuck it around. In three starts earlier this season, Rudolph averaged 37 pass attempts per game, with 40, 38, and 33 in the outings. He also threw it 26 times in just 37 snaps last week in relief. Rudolph is also averaging 33.8 attempts and 249.3 yards per game over his last eight starts. With Tony Pollard doubtful to play, Tennessee may go with a pass-heavy game plan too.

Calvin Ridley hasn't had the best or most consistent season, but his production is more reliable, with Rudolph under center. Ridley had 143, 73, and 43 yards in the three games Rudolph started this year with 8+ targets in each. He's also averaging 74.5 yards per game over the past eight contests. Rudolph should lean on Ridley here.

On the other side, Anthony Richardson's struggles as a passer continue. Last week was yet another inefficient outing for the young quarterback, going 17-for-38 (44.7%) with an ugly 36.3 QB rating. He has 172, 109, and 172 yards in the past three weeks and has been under 180 passing yards in six of his last eight full games played. The Titans are allowing 195 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the third-fewest in the league.

Parlay Odds: +450 (on BetMGM Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets

Leg 1: Jets +3.5 Spread (-135)
Leg 2: Davante Adams Over 5.5 Receptions (-150)
Leg 3: Davante Adams 70+ Receiving Yards (-135)
Leg 4: Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120)

After beating the 49ers last Thursday, the Rams are now tied for first place in the NFC West heading into Week 16. There's classic letdown potential for Los Angeles coming off that must-win situation against a division rival. Plus, the Rams have critical NFC West matchups against the Cardinals and Seahawks in the next two weeks.

In between is this road matchup against the 4-10 Jets. It's a typical trap sandwich spot traveling across the country and facing a team with nothing to play for. Plus, the Rams are averaging 19.3 PPG on the road compared to 25 PPG at home. Los Angeles' defense has also been very inconsistent week-to-week.

New York has let down bettors all season, but the arrow might be pointing up as Aaron Rodgers and Co. look to end the year strong. The Jets finally won last week to break their losing streak and they're averaging 26.5 PPG over the past four games. Rodgers is playing much better than he was a month or two ago, with 339 and 289 yards in the past two weeks. Speaking of Rodgers, he's actually 8-0 ATS in his career against the Rams.

Just as we all expected, Rodgers loves throwing to Davante Adams. The two have reignited that past connection, and it's resulting in productive games for Adams - win or lose. The veteran receiver has 198 and 109 yards in the last two games, with nine receptions in both. Adams is averaging 94.5 yards, 11 targets, and seven receptions per game over the past six contests, with 6+ catches in five of those. The Rams are allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt this season, and Adams should hit both of his props.

Though we're fading the Rams against the spread, Matthew Stafford still has a good shot at avoiding an interception. He's now gone five straight games without throwing a pick while being smarter with the football overall. Meanwhile, the Jets defense only has four interceptions through 14 games this year - tied for the second-lowest in the league.

Parlay Odds: +525

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Leg 1: James Conner 100+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (-150)
Leg 2: Trey McBride 70+ Receiving Yards (-110)
Leg 3: Adam Thielen 50+ Receiving Yards (-160)

The Cardinals got back into the win column last week against New England, staying just one game back in the NFC West standings. The Panthers, meanwhile, lost their fourth straight to fall to 3-11 on the year. Arizona should win this game as the better overall team, but Carolina has been feisty as an underdog lately.

You can make a real argument for both sides of the spread on this one. The Cardinals could easily win by double-digits but the Panthers' strong recent track record ATS makes them very live at home. The total is also a stay-away with how bad the Carolina defense has been compared to Arizona's road struggles at times this season.

Instead, let's focus on three props and kick things off with James Conner. The Panthers are allowing a league-high 173.0 rush yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. This defense is getting torched on the ground every game, and it's given up 100+ yards to an opposing back in five of the past six games. Conner has been productive as both a rusher and pass-catcher for Arizona. He's averaging 95.3 total yards per game this season, with 100+ in seven of his last 11 games. Conner can get 100+ rushing yards alone, so look at that plus-odds prop as well.

Trey McBride has also been consistently producing in the Cardinals' offense. He has 70+ receiving yards in five straight games, averaging 91.4 YPG in this stretch. Carolina is allowing the 10th-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this year. Kyler Murray should continue to target McBride heavily in a must-win scenario for Arizona.

In Carolina's offense, Adam Thielen was already a favorite option for Bryce Young, but he could step into an even bigger role this week. Xavier Legette's status is up in the air after getting hurt last week. If he's out, Thielen would surely be locked into more targets. Since returning from injury himself, the veteran wideout has 99, 102, and 51 receiving yards in the past three games.

Parlay Odds: +425

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Leg 1: Under 43.5 Total Points (-138)
Leg 2: T.J. Hockenson 40+ Receiving Yards (-145)
Leg 3: Aaron Jones Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The Vikings won again last week and are now 12-2 with a seven-game winning streak. With another Lions loss, Minnesota can take over first place in the division with a victory of their own this weekend. Meanwhile, despite losing a week ago, Seattle is still very much alive to win the NFC West or claim a Wild Card berth. Both teams are in must-win mode at this point, and their Week 16 matchup has plenty of postseason implications.

Expect the defenses from both sides to set the tone in a playoff atmosphere for this game. The Vikings have been elite defensively all year, allowing 18.0 PPG (2nd in NFL). They have a league-high 20 interceptions and are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (89.1). Brian Flores' blitz-heavy defense should cause problems for Geno Smith, who is dealing with a knee injury.

Seattle has been much better defensively over the second half of the season. Sam Darnold also just had one of his worst games of the year against Chicago last week. He may be a bit inefficient against the Seahawks' talented secondary that's trending up. The Vikings are also on the road for the first time in a month. On that note, there is a 100% chance of rain and 10 mph winds expected in Seattle on Sunday.

Grab the under, as both offenses may be a bit conservative in this matchup, with the defenses keeping things lower-scoring. Minnesota is 9-5 to the under this year, while Seattle is 5-2 to the under in the past seven games.

The Seahawks defense has been tougher against wide receivers but more exploitable by opposing tight ends and running backs in the passing game. The unit boasts good cover corners that can limit Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to a degree. This will force Darnold to lean on T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones more.

Hockenson has 40+ receiving yards in four of his last six games, averaging 54 yards per game in this stretch. His targets and role have become more steady over the past month as well. Seattle is allowing 56.9 yards per game to tight ends. Jones, meanwhile, is averaging 23 receiving yards per game this year with 15+ yards in 10 of 14 contests.

Parlay Odds: +465

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Leg 1: Patriots +14 (-108)
Leg 2: James Cook 60+ Rushing Yards (-150)
Leg 3: Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (-235)
Leg 4: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

The Bills are coming off an impressive road upset at Detroit last week to improve to 11-3 this season. Josh Allen is the odds-on MVP favorite, and Buffalo is arguably the best team in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Patriots (3-11) lost again last week and are in line for a top-5 pick in the draft.

Buffalo is rightfully favored by double digits at home and should win easily. Still, the spread is a bit large for a divisional game-no matter how much better the Bills are. Plus, multiple ATS trends and narratives point towards New England staying within the number.

First off, this is a typical letdown trap spot for Buffalo coming off the big victory over the Lions. Not only was it a statement win, but it was also a 48-42 back-and-forth contest. That's now two thrillers in a row after the Bills lost to the Rams, 44-42, two weeks ago. The Buffalo defense could be gassed, especially with their lengthy injury report. Plus, teams after facing the Lions this season are 3-10 ATS - failing to cover by an average of 8.7 PPG.

The Bills have also simply not been profitable as large favorites in recent years. Last year, they went 0-3 ATS when favored by 11+ points, and they've been just 3-8 ATS as double-digit favorites over the past three seasons. As a favorite of more than a touchdown vs. AFC East teams, Josh Allen is 4-7-1 ATS in his career. This is an instance of ignoring the opponentâ€™s name and following the trends.

Though we're backing the Patriots, James Cook should still get his rushing yards. The Bills' lead back has been up and down this year but just ran for 105 yards last week and 107 three games ago. Cook is averaging 63.7 rush yards per game this year and has 70+ in seven of 13 games. The Pats are giving up the fourth-most rush yards per game to running backs with 60+ to an opposing back in nine of the past 11 contests.

On the New England side of things, Rhamondre Stevenson can also have a semi-productive outing to rack up 50+ total yards. He has 50+ combined receiving and rushing yards in six of his last seven games and 10 of 13 overall this year, averaging 68.8 total yards per game. The Bills are allowing a league-high 49.5 receiving yards per game to running backs this year. Stevenson isn't a huge threat through the air, but he does have 16+ receiving yards in five of his last seven.

Parlay Odds: +544

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders

Leg 1: Under 40.5 Total Points (-112)
Leg 2: Jakobi Meyers 60+ Receiving Yards (-135)
Leg 3: Brenton Strange Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Welcome to the ugliest game on the slate as the 2-12 Raiders host the 3-11 Jaguars. We'll gladly pass on the spread, with both teams preferring to lose and improve draft positioning. Instead, let's focus on the total and some player props.

This game has under written all over it. Although there's a pair of bottom-tier defenses involved, both offenses will struggle to take advantage. Mac Jones looked better last week, but he still has a 2:7 TD:INT ratio in his four starts. The Jaguars are averaging 12 PPG in those games and just 14.8 PPG on the road this year.

Meanwhile, the Raiders haven't cracked 20 points in five straight games and eight of their last 10 contests. The quarterback carousel continues with Aidan O'Connell trending towards starting and they still have the worst rushing offense in the league. Despite the Jags' issues defensively, it's hard to get excited about Las Vegas lighting up the scoreboard.

On the bright side, O'Connell at QB means we can feel better about Raiders pass-catcher props. In O'Connell's previous two starts, Jakobi Meyers had 97 and 67 receiving yards with double-digit targets in both. The Jaguars are allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this year. Meyers should continue to be a top target for O'Connell, with Vegas lacking any reliable options besides Brock Bowers.

With Evan Engram out for the season, Brenton Strange moved into Jacksonville's starting tight end role last week and put up big numbers. His 11 receptions, 12 targets, and 73 yards were all season-highs as a favorite option for Mac Jones. Strange has been productive when given the chance, averaging 9.7 yards per catch this year. The Raiders are allowing the third-most receiving yards and fourth-most receptions per game to tight ends.

Parlay Odds: +600

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins

Leg 1: Dolphins Team Total Over 21.5 Points (-125)
Leg 2: De'Von Achane 40+ Receiving Yards (-105)
Leg 3: George Kittle 60+ Receiving Yards (-145)

Both the 49ers and Dolphins have underperformed this season relative to pre-season expectations. Yet, both are still alive for the playoffs ahead of their Week 16 matchup. This game is basically a pick'em with the total in no man's land. Let's just target a team total and a couple of props instead.

The San Francisco defense has been notably worse on the road than at home. It's allowing 27.8 points and 328.2 total yards per game on the road compared to 19.1 points and 276.8 yards at home. The Niners have also allowed 20+ points in every road game this season.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are averaging 31.8 PPG over their last four home games since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. The offense should be poised to bounce back at home after struggling last week at Houston. Tua is expected to be full-go despite dealing with a hip injury, and he faces a 49ers defense that's been beatable.

Miami may have to make do without Jaylen Waddle, though after he suffered a knee injury last week. If Waddle is out, De'Von Achane becomes even more important as a pass-catcher. The Dolphins' running back is averaging 46 receiving yards and 6.1 receptions per game in Tua's 10 games this season.

As for the Niners, George Kittle is playing a leading role lately with Deebo Samuel struggling and their plethora of injuries. Kittle is averaging 71.6 receiving yards per game this season, which includes a dud in the Buffalo snow game. He has 60+ yards in five of his last seven contests, with 57 yards in another. The Dolphins have been exposed by top tight ends this season: Brock Bowers (126 yards), Trey McBride (124), and Tucker Kraft (78).

Parlay Odds: +410

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