NFL Saturday Anytime & First TD Scorers: Texans vs. Chiefs (Week 16)
It's Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. We have two games on Saturday afternoon. The Houston Texans take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the day's first matchup while the Pittsburgh Steelers face the Baltimore Ravens to round out the Saturday slate.
Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for Texans vs. Chiefs.
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Saturday NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets: Texans vs. Chiefs
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texans vs. Chiefs
Houston Texans First TD Scorer: Joe Mixon (+200)
Joe Mixon has been the focal point of Houston's offense this season. The star running back missed three games earlier this year with a high-ankle sprain. Yet, he leads the team in rushing touchdowns (11) and offensive scores (12). Furthermore, Mixon has accounted for nearly 40% of the Texans' offensive scores despite missing three games. More importantly, he has accounted for the team's first touchdown in six of the past eight contests.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the NFL this year. They have surrendered 63.2 rushing yards per game to running backs, the fewest in the NFL. However, Kansas City has given up eight rushing touchdowns to running backs, including four over the past four weeks. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against the Chiefs has been a rushing one by a running back in back-to-back games.
Kansas City Chiefs First TD Scorer: Noah Gray (+950)
While Travis Kelce is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the team's clear-cut No. 1 tight end, the veteran has struggled in 2024, totaling only two receiving touchdowns. Noah Gray has stepped up for Patrick Mahomes and the passing attack. The veteran tight end leads the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns (five) while ranking second to Xavier Worthy in offensive scores. By comparison, he had four receiving touchdowns over his first three years in the league.
Furthermore, Gray has five receiving touchdowns over the past five weeks, including one in the team’s Week 15 win over the Cleveland Browns. More importantly, he had the first Kansas City touchdown in Week 12. Meanwhile, the Texans have given up six receiving touchdowns to tight ends, the seventh-most in the NFL. The first touchdown scored against Houston has been by a tight end in three of their past seven games, including Jonnu Smith last week.
Anytime TD Scorer: Nico Collins (+145)
Unfortunately, C.J. Stroud and the Texans' passing attack hasn't been as impressive as last season, with the offensive line struggling. However, Collins has been one of the top wide receivers in the league. The superstar missed five games because of a hamstring injury. Yet, he ranks 17th in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns. The former Michigan star has had at least one touchdown in 55.6% of the games this season, including two of the past three.
Last week, Collins only had four receptions for 17 receiving yards in the win over the Miami Dolphins. However, he finished the game with two receiving touchdowns, a season-high. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have forced teams to throw against them because of their elite run defense. Kansas City has surrendered 14 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the 12th-most in the NFL entering Week 16. Don't be surprised if Collins scores the team's only receiving touchdown on Saturday.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.