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NFL Saturday Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Lions vs Cowboys (Week 17)

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Let's dive into the Saturday marquee NFL matchup for Week 16 between the Lions and Cowboys. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 16 Saturday football.

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Saturday Football Betting Primer

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) vs. Detroit Lions

Sides:

  • Before last week, the Cowboys had won each of their last nine games following a loss.
  • The Cowboys have won each of their last 15 home games.
  • They have not covered as underdogs in 6 straight games. 0% ATS this season as dogs (0-4) this season.
  • 7-1 ATS at home. 3-5 ATS on the road this season
  • 82% ATS as a favorite this season. 10-1 overall.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 14 of the Cowboys' last 16 games.
  • The Detroit Lions are 5-4 ATS over their last nine games with two of the four latest covers by extremely slim margins.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in five of their last six games as road favorites. 3 were dome games, one was in sunny Tampa Bay and the other was GB in September. They are not road favorites this week.
  • The Lions are 50% ATS as an underdog (1-1).

Game Total:

  • 7 of the Cowboys' last 11 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 6 of 9 games through the air.
  • Dallas had played 9 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense and scored 20-plus points in all games except for the last 2 weeks in back-to-back road losses (both unders).
  • 4 of the 6 road games Dallas has played over that stretch have gone UNDER the projected total.
  • They have played in three straight games that have gone UNDER the projected total.
  • Six of the Lions' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 3 of the last four road games the Lions have played have gone OVER. Those games were all played in domes.
  • These teams have averaged 50 points scored this season.
  • Dallas at home has averaged 55 points per game. 5-2 record toward the over.
  • Ten of the Cowboys’ last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Lions have the 28th-ranked red zone defense.
  • The last two defenses the Cowboys have faced rank near the top of the league in fewest explosive passing plays on defense.
  • The Lions have allowed the 4th-most explosive passing plays on defense - ranking 25th in yards per attempt. The Vikings averaged 10.4 yards per attempt against them last week.

Overall:

It's hard to not view this game as an easy "get-right" spot for the Dallas offense to get cooking. They play so great at home both toward the over and ATS. There's a reason they are nearly TD favorites at home, even against a strong opponent. And the Lions defense is just so bad, that the Cowboys may not ever stop scoring. Perfect for Dallas to break their three-game skid of unders on the total.

There's enough on Dallas' defensive side, to stop the Lions from covering the 6-point spread. Jared Goff ranks 29th in yards per attempt versus man coverage this season. 20th in EPA/play.  And only 3 QBs that have faced Dallas have thrown for more than 260 passing yards this season. Fewer than 200 passing yards per game overall. 8 of the last 12 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards. Goff has thrown for less than 261 yards in three of his last four games and in three straight road contests. With Dallas' biggest weakness being against the run, I think we see the Lions throw less, having Goff finish under his projection passing yardage. And that could leave them potentially falling just short of the spread.

Still, I like the bet on the over in this game, even at the bloated number of 53.5. Dallas is a juggernaut at home, and the Lions have shown the ability to run the football and score points on any defense. 3rd in rushing yards per game. They can score on the ground versus Dallas.

Props:

The Lions have allowed the second-most passing yards to QBs over the last four weeks (281/game). Dak Prescott has gone over 270 yards in his last five home games. In those same games, CeeDee Lamb has gone over 100 yards or more in three of them. I like the MORE THAN Lamb's 90.5 receiving yards this week on Prizepicks versus the Lions. They rank 5th-worst in yards to WRs in their last four games allowing 185 yards per game to opposing WRs. They are also the 7th-worst defense against slot WRs, where Lamb runs 60-65% of his routes.

The Lions defense is stout versus the run. They have not allowed RB to surpass 51 yards against them since Week 10. Tony Pollard has been held under 53 rushing yards in back-to-back games.

Other contributors in the receiving game for the Lions in Week 16 included Jameson Williams with 43 yards and Kalif Raymond with 29 yards. Jamo's role was again split with Josh Reynolds as the WR2 (58% snap share), but it was another strong target outing with 6 targets and 5 receptions. They might HAVE to use him more this week in a projected shootout. 2 red-zone targets last week. And he has gone over 25.5 receiving yards by a large margin in the last two games. I love the over on 25.5 receiving yards on FanDuel. It's just too low.

Other matchup notes for potential props for TEs and WRs when more get released: Dallas is allowing the 7th-fewest receiving yards and 5th-fewest receptions per game to WRs this season.

My Picks

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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