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NFL Saturday Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Week 18)

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Let’s dive into the two-game Saturday marquee NFL slate for Week 18. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 18 Saturday football between the Pittsburgh Steelers vs the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans vs the Indianapolis Colts.

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Saturday Football Betting Primer

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Sides:

  • The Ravens have won the first half in 12 of their last 13 games.
  • The Ravens have lost each of their last five home games in January.
  • The Ravens have won 10 of their last 11 games.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last four January games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Ravens are 100% ATS as an underdog this season at 2-0. Steelers are 50% ATS as a favorite at 3-3
  • Mason Rudolph is 7-4-1 as a starter. 8-3 ATS.

Game Total:

  • Each of the last six games between the Steelers and Ravens has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Teams have averaged 41.5 points scored.
  • Baltimore is 5-3 toward the over at home this season averaging 52.5 points per game.
  • Steelers games have gone OVER the total in four straight weeks, and the Ravens have gone OVER in two straight (3 of the last 5).
  • Six of the Steelers’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Steelers boast the league’s 5th-best red zone defense. Baltimore ranks second.
  • Pittsburgh ranks 29th in red zone scoring.

Overall:

The betting line comes down to the odds accounting for Ravens resting several players such as Lamar Jackson and Odell Beckham Jr., with the No. 1 seed locked up. Simply put, the Steelers are favorites because they “have” to win, and the Ravens have nothing to play for.

But Ravens head coach John Harbaugh made interesting comments comparing this team to his 2019 squad, which got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs after a two-week layoff. Even while resting several players such as Lamar Jackson, I’d hardly be surprised to see Baltimore give a strong effort so they can build momentum heading into the postseason, and not get caught sluggish like they did back in 2019. This is also a prideful Ravens organization, that holds the record for most preseason games won in a row. And there’s no way they want to just let a rival AFC North Steelers team just waltz into their house and beat them for the second time this season. We see motivated teams lose to teams with nothing to play for all the time. Don’t be shocked to see things kick off strangely in Week 18 between these two AFC North franchises.

I’ll take the Ravens at home with the points against a fraudulent Steelers team even at “full strength.”

As for the total…this number has been bet UP since it opened at 35 points to 36.5 points. Given the overall suppressed number based on the “unknowns” of the Ravens offense, I like the over at 36.5. Both teams are riding high with the O/U trends toward backing the game going OVER the projected total. The Ravens have been dead even toward the O/U this season at 8-8 while the Steelers have been regressing to the mean with a 6-10 O/U record, after starting the season 2-10 toward the over.

All in all, I still like the Ravens’ side the most. Even with Tyler Huntley starting, I am not overly concerned. Again, backup QBs continue to be profitable sides to bet on this season. Huntley starting against the Steelers is also far from unfamiliar territory. 3 of Huntley’s 9 career starts have come against Pittsburgh. He’s 1-2 ATS. But each game totaled 30 or fewer points. And the underdog won outright by a margin of 3 points or less.

Props:

For the Ravens’ offense…the Steelers are horrible versus slot WRs. 10 of the last 12 slot WRs have gone OVER their projected receiving yards against the Steelers this season. They have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to slot WRs this season. Nelson Agholor leads Baltimore in slot snaps/routes this season. He also posted a season-high 64 receiving yards when he faced the Steelers back in Week 5.

Even though I do think the Ravens show up in some capacity, I feel very strongly that the Steelers will be able to run the ball if Baltimore rests key defenders. Therefore I like the overs on Najee Harris’ rushing yards at 55.5. He’s gone over this number in both of Mason Rudolph’s starts this season. The offense has also generated a -17% pass rate over expectation over that span. In a “closer” game, Harris should hit this number easily.

Baltimore’s 1st-string defense has allowed 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs the last four weeks, with 3 going for 100-plus rushing yards.

Also, keep tabs on anything 3.5 reception props for either Diontae Johnson or George Pickens. The Ravens don’t allow a lot of WR yards, but they bleed targets (2nd) and receptions (7th). Pickens went for 130 yards on 6 catches and 10 targets back in Week 5 vs Baltimore. He has also been en fuego the last two weeks since the team went to Rudolph as QB1.

My Picks:

  • Ravens +3
  • Najee Harris over 55.5 rushing yards

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans (-1.5)

Sides:

  • The Colts are 6-0 as favorites this season 5-1 ATS after they came .5 points of covering the 3.5-point line last week.
  • The Colts have won 6 of their last 8.
  • The Texans are 5-4 as an underdog, 67% ATS.
  • The favorites have won each of the Colts’ last 11 games.
  • The Colts opened as home favorites, but the lines flipped Wednesday morning in favor of Houston.
  • The Texans are 27% ATS as a favorite – 4-3 overall. That includes losses at Atlanta, Carolina and New York (Jets) when they were small road favorites.
  • The Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites (2-6 ATS as a favorite this season)
  • 6 of their last 7 wins have been by 7 or fewer points.
  • Overall, Houston is 8-6 versus the spread over their last 14 games.
  • The Colts are 40% ATS as an underdog – 3-7 overall.

Game Total:

  • The Colts are 7-1 toward the over at home this season averaging 52.3 points per game
  • The Colts have been one of the few “over” machines this season, boasting an impressive 11-5 record toward the over.
  • Eight of the Colts’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 5-1 toward the over in their last 6 games.
  • These teams average 45.5 points scored combined
  • The Colts have not been great in the red zone/third down. Houston’s defense is top 10 on 3rd downs, but below average defending in the red zone.
  • The Texans have gone under in 10 of their last 14 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • The Colts have averaged 23.6 points per game this season and 26.5 points per game at home.

Overall:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. This is the 3rd time this season that the Indianapolis Colts opened as small favorites just for the lines to flip toward the other team. The Texans are now 1.5 point road favorites, and I am not surprised by this line movement. If anything, I am shocked it took this long as money poured in on the Texans to win as small road underdogs early in the week. And I will 100% chase the steam because I have been burned by this twice this season. I bet the Colts early as favorites, the line flips and then they lose on game day. But this time I practiced patience. Sure, I missed out on some CLV, but you have to be right at the end of the day. And I think the line has adjusted correctly to make the Texans small road favorites.

As for the total… I never saw a Colts game OVER I didn’t like. These teams posted 51 when they first played back in Week 2. Given how bad these two defenses can be exposed against top-tier play callers featured on both sides…the OVER is my play even at 47.5 points.

Props:

I love the props in this game. I talked a lot about them in my Week 18 Prizepicks video that you can watch on the FantasyPros YouTube channel.

I am fading Jonathan Taylor’s rushing prop this week. First off, Zack Moss might return after getting in limited practice last week.

The Texans have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. They are a horrible matchup for RBs this season allowing just 69 yards per game to all opposing RBs – 4th-best. No RB they have faced as gone for 80 yards since…Week 3.

Smash the UNDER on Taylor’s 80.5 rushing yards prop. He’s hit that number twice this season. Not to mention, 2 of the Colts starting OL men opened the week with DNPs.

Devin Singletary led the rushing attack in Week 17 with 16 carries for 80 yards while catching all 3 of his targets for 6 yards. Played 62% of the snaps. Singletary is already in a dream matchup versus Indy and is 165 rushing yards away from a contract bonus. Not impossible, but he’s likely going to get fed touches. The Colts defense cannot stop the run, even after they got Grover Stewart back from suspension. They have allowed the 5th-most rushing yards per game to RBs this season. The last 7 RBs they have faced have gone for at least 70 rushing yards. Singletary is over 60 yards in three of his last four games.

Dalton Schultz can reach a $250k bonus for 60 receptions – Currently at 54 receptions. Might opt for the overs on his receptions and receiving yards. He played 79% of the snaps and ran a route on 71% of the dropbacks in Week 17. The Colts are allowing the 5th-most targets to tight ends this season. Schultz caught 4 balls for 34 yards on 7 targets versus the Colts back in Week 2.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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