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NFL Saturday Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Divisional Round)

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This Saturday, the NFL Divisional Round presents an exciting two-game slate that promises to deliver action-packed matchups, perfect for both casual fans and serious bettors. With games featuring teams battling for the Super Bowl, there’s plenty to focus on from a betting perspective, including prop bets, spreads, totals, and same-game parlays.

These games offer a wide array of betting opportunities, with two exciting matchups with everything on the line.

Whether you’re targeting individual player props or looking to make the most of the total points and game spreads, this slate is stacked with betting angles to explore. Let’s dive into what you should be keeping an eye on and how to maximize your bets for this exciting Saturday NFL action.

NFL Saturday Divisional Round Betting Primer

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams that held a winning record (76%).
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
  • The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS this season, covering spreads of -6.5 points or greater.
  • The Chiefs starters have won 21 of their last 22 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 16 games as favorites.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 13 of their last 23 games.
  • The Chiefs have scored last in each of their last seven home games.
  • The first score in the Chiefs’ last three games as favorites has been a Chiefs Touchdown.
  • The Chiefs are 50% ATS at home in their last 27 home games
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in their last six postseason games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 road games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 19 of the Chiefs’ last 30 games.
  • The Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • Overall, KC is 9-10-1 as road favorites (45%).
  • Houston is 11-6-1 ATS as a road underdog (65%) and 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
  • The Texans are 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as favorites (8-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Houston is 4-4 as road favorites. 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
  • The Texans have won eight of their last 11 home games.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 19 games and are 8-10 ATS this season.
  • They are 11-21-1 ATS as underdogs, while 7-8 ATS (45%) as home underdogs ATS.
  • The Texans have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • Their opponents have scored last in six of the last seven Texans games.
  • In five of the Texans’ last 10 games, the first score has been a Texans Touchdown.
  • The Texans have won the first half in 12 of their last 15 games.
  • Thirteen of their last 20 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.

Totals:

  • KC is 4-4 O/U this season, averaging 42.4 points per game.
  • Fifteen of the Chiefs’ last 24 games have gone UNDER the total points line (18 of the last 26, 69%).
  • Nineteen of the Chiefs' last 25 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Three of the Chiefs’ last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just three teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11, the Panthers in Week 12, and the Broncos in Week 18).
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • Each of the last six games between the Texans and Chiefs has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Houston is 7-11 O/U this season. Eleven of the Texans’ last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 2-7 O/U at home (Under 43.5 points per game).
  • According to DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Texans’ last nine games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Texans’ last 11 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Texans have gone under in 22 of their last 37 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.

Overall:

The Houston Texans aren't getting much love for their big win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round, and rightfully so. Re-watching that game didn't suggest that the Texans’ offense had completely flipped the switch, but their Big 3 - C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Joe Mixon – all played relatively well.

Mixon and Collins both went over 100 yards rushing and receiving, respectively. Had the Chargers offense converted its red-zone trips into TDs, the outcome could have been very different. Houston turned the ball over three times, and their first five drives resulted in three punts and two turnovers.

Even so, the Texans’ defense was the bigger story, as the pass rush was relentless against Justin Herbert, pressuring him on over half of his dropbacks.

If the Texans have any chance of knocking off the reigning Super Bowl champion in their house, their defense needs to play a massive part.

This would be an unprecedented upset, unlike the Texans beating the Chargers as small home underdogs.

Also, a second straight slow start won't be as easy to overcome.

The spread opened Chiefs at -8.5, and it's since moved to -7.5 just to go back to -8.5. Note that this exact matchup in Week 16 closed at KC -3.5 with a 42-point game total.

That December spread was funky the entire week leading up to the Saturday contest because Patrick Mahomes was dealing with an ankle injury. But after he practiced in full leading up to the game, the lines completely flipped in favor of KC after Houston opened as favorites behind the idea Mahomes might not play.

But now it seems like an overinflated number to cover, given how close the spread was just a few weeks back and how the game played out.

The game was an extra point away from being tied up 17-17 into the third quarter. But after WR Tank Dell suffered his season-ending injury, Houston was outscored 10-3. Houston lost by eight points with a missed extra point and two turnovers.

The Texans have been at their best ATS as road underdogs (11-6-1 ATS, 65%), and the Chiefs don't blow teams out.

The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS this season covering spreads of -6.5 points or greater.

KC off the bye week seems like a lock to win, but I don't think it's by more than a touchdown.

We could also see Houston start fast against a well-rested but potentially groggy Chiefs team off extended rest, so an opportunity to live bet the Chiefs on the ML might be the best approach while flexing your in-game betting prowess on Saturday (be sure to check out the Live Stream on BettingPros YouTube Channel with Joe Pisapia and Scott Bogman).

As for the game total, I bet the under the last time these teams played. It went over with 46 points scored. The projected total is essentially the same as the previous matchup, with the spread as the main variable.

The trends for both these teams heavily suggest the under, and I tend to agree. The Chiefs’ defense will likely be getting back cornerback Jaylen Watson, who was a big part of their defensive success in the first half of the season.

I have major concerns about Houston's offensive line holding up on the road, putting Stroud in a tough position to overcome.

Given that HOU-KC games are on a streak of six straight overs, this seems like a logical regression spot. This game screams like a 24-17 Chiefs victory.

Props:

There are not many takeaways from the Chiefs' Week 18 game that we can use moving forward because they rested all their starters. If anything, it shows how KC feels about certain players, such as Marquise Brown, who could have easily played given all his time missed this season with injuries.

In just Brown's second game with the Chiefs on Christmas Day in Week 17, Hollywood recorded four catches for 46 yards and helped keep the chains moving. He had an 18% Target share (7 total targets while being targeted on 37% of his routes), totaling 67 air yards (9.6 aDOT). Brown only played 40% of the snaps, but this is going to increase moving forward in the playoffs.

Brown has 45-plus receiving yards in both games played this season. Take the OVER on his 41.5 receiving yards on FanDuel Sportsbook (opened at 36.5).

The KC backfield is still a two-man committee between Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, with Samaje Perine sprinkled in.

In Week 17, Hunt led the way with nine carries for 20 yards, including a touchdown. Pacheco added 18 yards on six attempts. Hunt led the snaps with a 48% rate with two red zone carries.

Pacheco has LESS THAN 33 rushing yards in three straight games and was held to 26 yards in the first matchup versus Houston.

Hunt carried the ball 11 times for 55 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown with a long of 20 yards as the lead back for KC in Week 16 versus the Texans. Houston held Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins to 26 yards on nine carries in the Wild Card round.

Although, I wouldn't be surprised if we see this backfield favor Pacheco more out of the extended layoff. Therefore, I like the UNDER on Hunt's 34.5 rushing yards this week. He hit a 20-yard rush at the end of the game to get to 55 rushing yards the last time these teams played (the Texans had 10 guys in the box and over pursued) . It was the first and only time this season that Hunt has rushed for 20-plus yards on a single carry.

I also love Pacheco's anytime TD odds. He hasn't scored since Week 1. He has scored in four of his last five postseason games, and he won't ever be healthier than he is now after three weeks off.

Simply put, the starting RB for a home team favored by 8.5 points shouldn't be listed at plus money to score a TD.

Houston is fifth in DVOA versus tight ends. Seven of the last 11 TEs have finished under their receiving yards projection against them in the last two-plus months. Travis Kelce was held to 30 yards in the first matchup versus the Texans and has gone over 52.5 receiving yards in just 53% of his games played this season.

However, Kelce has also averaged one TD per playoff game in his last 10 postseason games.

Xavier Worthy, with 24% of the Target share (9 total targets), caught eight passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. Worthy posted a 0.7 aDOT and accumulated just 6 air yards as we used primarily as an underneath YAC option.

According to Next Gen Stats, Worthy hauled in a season-high eight receptions on eight targets for 79 yards and a touchdown, with most of his production coming on open (3+ yards of separation) targets (7 receptions, 58 yards, one touchdown).

Worthy recorded 72 of his yards after the catch (season-high), for +21 yards after the catch over expected, his most in a game in 2024.

The rookie has been coming on in the second half of the season, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards since Week 11.

He has four catches or more in seven straight games, with 40-plus yards in all contests.

I like the OVER on Worthy's 51.5 receiving yards this week.

Worthy was the top receiver for the Chiefs the last time they faced KC, hauling in seven receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown.

DeAndre Hopkins added 7 yards on two receptions on four targets in Week 17, posting a 13% Target share (4 total targets) and 27 air yards. He also played his standard sub-50% snap share.

Hopkins has gone UNDER his receiving yards projection in six of his last seven games played with the Chiefs this season.

Patrick Mahomes had tossed for 250-plus passing yards in seven of his last 10 games and in eight of his last 10 home games dating back to last year's postseason. Take the OVER on 250.5 passing yards this week (opened 245.5).

Joe Mixon has rushed for under 60.5 yards in five of his last eight games with a full allotment of snaps. He was held to 57 rushing yards the last time he faced KC. Take the UNDER on rushing prop (60.5 rushing yards) this week for the divisional round.

John Metchie registered four catches for 28 yards, tying a team-high eight targets (not including penalties). All eight of Metchie's targets came in the first half of the game. The former Alabama WR was targeted on 35% of his routes run. Probably an easy prop to take the over on his receiving prop listed at 2.5 receptions against the Chiefs.

Metchie has at least two receptions in seven of his last eight games. Note that he did not play in the first matchup against the Chiefs earlier this season.

Dalton Schultz added 23 yards on two receptions in the first round of the playoffs, receiving four targets (one end-zone target). Schultz still played the most tight end snaps at 73% and ran the second-most routes on the team, but he was not involved. Even so, Schultz has just 29-plus receiving yards in five of his last nine games. The Texans also just placed the No. 2 tight end, Cade Stover, on IR.

Schultz had five receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown (22% Target share, two red-zone targets). The Texans TE was targeted 8 times. The Chiefs have allowed the most yards to TEs this season.

He scored a red-zone TD the last time he faced KC, and he is +2000 to score the first TD in the game.

The Texans TE popped up on the injury report with a shoulder injury on Tuesday, but he was off the injury report by Thursday.

My Picks:

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions

Sides:

  • The Lions have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 18 of their last 24 games (75%).
  • The Lions are 26-11 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 22-9 ATS over their last 31 games (71%). When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
  • The Lions have won 14 of their last 15 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 17 of their last 22 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Lions have won 14 of their last 17 home games.
  • The Lions have won their last 14 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 19 of their last 21 games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 12 of their last 13 home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in their last 13 road games following a home win.
  • The Lions have won each of their last 10 games following a loss
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 road games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games against teams with winning records (63%).
  • The Commanders have scored last in each of their last five games as underdogs.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in 10 of their last 16 games
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against teams with losing records (73%).
  • The Commanders have scored first in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Commanders have won the first quarter in seven of their last 11 games.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in six of their last 11 games.
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last 16 home games.
  • The Commanders are 11-6 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 18 games as favorites.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Lions' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line (64%)
  • Eighteen of the Lions’ last 28 games have gone OVER the total points line (64%)
  • The average total in the Lions’ last 28 home games has been 55.1 points; 73% (20/28) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Three of the Lions’ last five road games have gone under the total.
  • Ten of the Lions’ last 15 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Lions’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last four road games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Commanders’ last 13 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Commanders' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eighteen of the Commanders' last 26 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Commanders are 6-3 O/U at home, averaging over 51 points per game.
  • Each of the Commanders' last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 8-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 18-5 toward the OVER.
  • Washington has the fifth-highest scoring offense in the NFL (28.5) and sixth-best red-zone offense.

Overall:

The Commanders have won their last six games. They have taken care of inferior opponents but have struggled when tasked to go up in weight class.

Washington has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games against teams with winning records (36%).

Even so, they showed up big last week, coming back to win on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first round of playoffs. We liked the value on the Commanders ML, and it came through (although it was a sweat).

Jayden Daniels is now 4-3 ATS as an underdog this year.

But this Detroit Lions team is a different animal. Remember that Tampa Bay almost didn't make the playoffs as they narrowly got by New Orleans in Week 18.

Detroit is the class of the NFC and the kings against the spread. RB David Montgomery and CB Terrion Arnold will both return to the starting lineup.

I find it tough to believe that the Commanders’ defense can slow down the Lions rushing attack in any capacity.

According to Next Gen Stats, The Lions gained 1,801 yards on designed runs from under center this season, over 400 more than the next closest offense.

They were the most explosive under-center run game in the NFL both by volume (56 explosive runs, 22 more than the next closest offense) and on a per-carry basis (15.4%, only team over 13%). The Lions were also consistent from under center, achieving the 2nd-highest success rate on designed runs (47.0%). The Commanders’ defense ceded plenty of space to under-center designed runs this season, allowing the most yards before contact per carry (1.8) and the highest success rate (47.0%). They also allowed the 2nd-highest explosive run rate (13.7%) to under-center designed runs.

And when the Lions throw, I am skeptical that the Commanders will be able to generate a pass rush to disrupt Jared Goff.

The Commanders defensive line generated pressure on only 26.1% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks in the Wild Card round against the Buccaneers, their 5th-lowest pressure rate in a game this season per Next Gen Stats.

The lower pressure rate can be explained in part because the Commanders blitzed at their 2nd-lowest rate of the season at only 21.7%, much lower than when they played against the Buccaneers in Week 1 (41.2%). Edge rusher Dante Fowler was the only defensive lineman to generate multiple pressures (3) against the Buccaneers, with linebacker Bobby Wagner being the only other Commanders defender with multiple pressures (2).

Goff has recorded 275+ passing yards in five of the Lions' last eight games. His current line for the Divisional round is 275.5 yards. Take the over.

The total on the game is bizarre. You don't often see point totals of 55.5 or higher in today's NFL, so it's a bit perplexing. As you all know, I love the overs at Ford Field, but the value has been non-existent with the market pumping these numbers up.

Per BetIQ, since 2003, games that have closed at 56.5-55 have hit the under at 24-49 (32% over hit rate). That includes the last time we saw the Lions host the Vikings back in Week 18.

Each of the Commanders' last four road games has gone UNDER the total points line.

I'd feel much better about the over if this total was closer to 55 or 54.5. If anything, the game total might be a shy-away spot.

Props:

Brian Robinson Jr. ran between the tackles on 67.4% of his carries this season, the third-highest rate among running backs with at least 100 carries (Next Gen Stats).

He was contacted behind the line of scrimmage at the fifth-highest rate (45.2%) and managed to gain just the sixth-fewest yards after contact per carry (2.7) among running backs with at least 50 carries directed between the tackles.

Last week, Austin Ekeler had eight carries for 27 yards (3.4 yards per carry), and running back Brian Robinson Jr. carried the ball 10 times for 16 yards, averaging just 1.6 yards per carry against the Bucs. Robinson carried the ball thrice in the red zone for -3 yards. But he was stuffed like a Thanksgiving Turkey.

B-Rob has been held under 35.5 rushing yards and in three of his last five games. The Lions have held eight of the last 10 RBs under their closing line rushing yards projection.

Ekeler also contributed to the passing game with three catches for 26 yards. Robinson had four receptions for 22 yards on five targets. Robinson started and played 51% of the snaps, while Ekeler settled at 47%. The RB duo combined for nine targets.

Unfortunately, Robinson didn't score for the fifth straight week while ceding touches to Ekeler.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Commanders used pony personnel (two true RBs) on nine plays in their Wild Card victory, their 3rd-most in a game this season.

They gained 99 yards across those nine plays, recording a 77.8% success rate and generating +7.5 EPA out of the grouping. During the regular season, the Commanders led the NFL in pony personnel usage (89 plays), production (687 yards), and EPA per play (+0.40).

We should see plenty of both RBs on Saturday against the Lions, but my lean is still toward Robinson as the preferred red-zone RB. He has 16 red-zone touches with zero TDs in his last five games. This spot in a game with a 55-point total seems as logical as ever for him to break the touchdown slump.

The Lions’ defense allowed the third-most yards (251) and the fourth-highest conversion rate (48.3%) against scramble runs on early downs this season. They have also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards overall to QBs this season, according to Next Gen Stats.

On third down, they allowed just the ninth-fewest yards (60) and the second-lowest conversion rate (22.2%) against scramble runs. In their two losses to the Bucs (Week 2) and Bills (Week 15), they allowed Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen to combine for 51 yards, a touchdown, and four additional first downs across six scramble runs on early downs. On third down, Mayfield (11 yards) and Allen (8 yards) each scrambled once to covert first downs on scramble runs, the only such first downs the Lions allowed all season.

Daniels recorded 79 scramble runs this season, the most by any quarterback in a season since at least 2016.

He gained a league-high 600 yards and scored once on those scramble runs, resulting in the second-highest success rate (70.9%) among quarterbacks with at least 25 scramble runs. He scrambled 14 times out of empty formations for 163 yards, recording six explosive gains (10+ yards) and converting nine first downs.

The rookie QB has 60-plus rushing yards in three of his last four full starts. His anytime TD odds at +170 are also equally intriguing, given how bad the Lions have been defending mobile QBs. Daniels has just two fewer red-zone carries than Robinson this season but two fewer red-zone TDs.

The Commanders’ signal-caller has also exceeded his passing yards projection in four straight games this season (when healthy). With them playing in a projected shootout, it's best to go right back to OVER for Daniels's 234.5 passing yards. But all things being considered, I do prefer the rushing prop for Daniels more than the passing yards. His 13 carries last week were the third-most he has had in a game this season. In the last two must-win games for the Commanders, he has rushed no less than 13 times.

Terry McLaurin led the NFL in receptions (19), receiving yards (244), and touchdowns (7) on tight window targets (less than 1 yard of separation) this season.

McLaurin's seven tight window touchdowns are tied for the most by any player in a season in the Next Gen Stats era (Jimmy Graham, 2017). Since McLaurin entered the NFL in 2019, he has recorded a league-leading 17 touchdowns in tight windows. His longest reception in the Wild Card round (35 yards) occurred on a tight window throw. Matchup: The Lions defense forced tight windows on 18.9% of passes this season, the highest rate in the NFL (Next Gen Stats).

Sam LaPorta has 3.5-plus receptions in five straight games and 4.5 or more in four of his last five.

Jameson Williams added 34 yards on six receptions on a team-high 25% Target share and eight targets, but he did not score in Week 18. The Lions did right by the third-year WR, throwing him two passes in the fourth quarter up 31-9 to ensure he went over 1,000 receiving yards on the season.

Williams has at least five receptions in six of his last seven games, with 7-plus targets in each contest. Take the over on his 3.5 receptions prop.

It was listed at plus money earlier this week on DraftKings Sportsbook (+130) at 4.5 receptions

You can take the OVER on his reception number on PrizePicks as well. Listed at four receptions. MORE THAN.

Jahmyr Gibbs contributed as a receiver in Week 18, catching five passes for 31 yards and a touchdown, with his longest reception going for 14 yards.

Gibbs has 30-plus receiving yards in five straight games. However, I am less bullish on this receiving one, with Montgomery returning this week. He has hit 25.5 receiving yards in just half of his games played with his backfield teammate this season.

If I am betting on any player to score the first TD, I am going with the chalk. David Montgomery leads all Lions in first TDs this season (5) despite missing the last four games of the season.

He is practicing in full, and I presume he will reclaim his role as the hammer at the goal line. No better way to welcome his return to the lineup than with a touchdown. Last year, Montgomery totaled four TDs in his first two games back from extended missed games because of injuries.

My Picks:

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