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NFL Saturday Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 17)

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This Saturday, NFL Week 17 presents an exciting three-game slate that promises to deliver action-packed matchups, perfect for both casual fans and serious bettors. With games featuring teams battling for playoff spots and others playing for pride, there's plenty to focus on from a betting perspective, including prop bets, spreads, totals, and same-game parlays.

These games offer a wide array of betting opportunities, from the Los Angeles Chargers against the New England Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals aiming to keep their playoff hopes alive against the Denver Broncos.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams look to build on their success against their NFC West rival Arizona Cardinals.

Whether you're targeting individual player props or looking to make the most of the total points and game spreads, this slate is stacked with betting angles to explore. Let's dive into what you should be keeping an eye on and how to maximize your bets for this exciting Saturday NFL action.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Sides:

  • The Chargers have scored first in their last 10 games as road favorites.
  • Their opponents have scored last in each of the Chargers’ last six road games.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in their last four games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Chargers have lost eight of their last nine home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Chargers are 10-5 ATS this season.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in 12 of the Chargers' last 15 games.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Chargers have scored first in five of their last seven road games.
  • The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 10 points in seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Chargers have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • The Patriots have lost nine of their last 10 games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Patriots have lost 15 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 14 games.
  • The Patriots have lost 14 of their last 17 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Patriots are 47% ATS (9-11) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 24 road contests.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Chargers’ last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twenty-one of the Chargers’ last 30 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Chargers’ last 17 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 9-6 toward the under this season.
  • Each of the Chargers’ last four road games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the last 20 Patriots games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Eight of the Patriots' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots' defense has allowed 300-plus yards in 11 out of 15 games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • The Patriots are 9-6 toward the OVER this season.
  • They are 5-1 toward the OVER at home (46 points per game).

Overall:

The Patriots defense is not good. This we know. A big part of that is due to their severe lack of pass rush. According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots have generated pressure on just 29.7% of dropbacks, the 4th-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Keion White (14.0%) is the only Patriots defender with at least 150 pass rushes to generate a pressure rate over 10%.

Justin Herbert has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt when not pressured, the 8th-most among quarterbacks.

I find it very hard to believe the Patriots’ offense will slow down the Chargers, especially if they get running back J.K. Dobbins back in the fold. Gus Edwards has already been ruled out, putting Dobbins in the driver's seat to lead the Bolts' backfield in Week 17.

The Chargers have struggled this season against tougher competition, but the Patriots are hardly a formidable opponent. They have performed great as favorites (8-2 straight up and 80% ATS).

I don't like betting against my Patriots, but this is a pretty obvious bet to make on the road team laying 5.5 points.

As for the total, I love the over in this contest. During this festive time of year, the Patriots’ defense is the gift that keeps on giving in the form of game total overs.

They are 5-1 toward the OVER this season, averaging 46 points per game. If any team will break the Chargers' four-game road under streak (and 6-1 record on the road toward the under), it's the Patriots.

As for the first score, the trends suggest that the Chargers will draw first blood.

Props:

Drake Maye has thrown for 222-plus yards in six out of 11 games this season and in four of his last five games.

We liked the Bo Nix rushing yards OVER on Thursday night football, and we should carry that analysis over to Maye's rushing props. Maye has rushed for 26+ yards in seven out of eleven games played this season, but he's averaging 35 rushing yards per game. And the Chargers have allowed the over to seven of the last nine rushing QBs they have faced this season.

According to the Athletic, Dobbins can get an additional $150K each if he reaches thresholds of 900 and 1,050 rushing yards. He was sitting at 766 rushing yards before injuring his knee and being placed on injured reserve. The Patriots have allowed nine of the last 11 RBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yards projection, including 86-plus in three of their last four games.

Kayshon Boutte was the leading receiver, catching five passes on nine targets (22% Target share) for 95 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 31 yards back in Week 16. He continues to make downfield splash plays (43% air yards share 100-plus air yards), and we could see him hold a huge role in that capacity in Week 17 versus the Chargers pass defense that has struggled against deep passes.

Rhamondre Stevenson was the leading rusher for the Patriots in Week 16, carrying the ball 12 times for 60 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards and one red-zone touchdown. However, he also lost a fumble.

Antonio Gibson had 10 rushes for 28 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry, with a long of 9 yards.

The final snaps were 59% for Gibson and 44% for Stevenson. I know this final snap count will undoubtedly want those to bury Stevenson but don't get this twisted. Gibson also fumbled in this game and got stuffed at the goal line for a three-yard loss. Technically, Stevenson might be in the doghouse for two fumbles, given that he failed to corral a pitch from Maye that resulted in a Bills defensive touchdown.

But we have been down this road with Stevenson before. Stevenson was in the doghouse after Week 4 and was "benched" for AG against the Dolphins in Week 5. He rushed for 89 yards in his second-best game of the year. Stevenson has hit the over on his rushing yards prop every single game at home this season (48-plus and 73 or more rushing yards in four home games) and in nine of the Patriots' 11 games this season that have been non-blowouts.

The 45.5 rushing number is way too low if Stevenson sees his normal workload. The last nine of 10 RBs to face the Chargers have gone over their rushing yards projection. They’ve allowed the sixth-most rushing yards allowed to RBs over the last four weeks. Keep an eye out for Stevenson's number closer to kickoff, as I imagine we could get some value on a suppressed line. FWIW, Gibson is 180 yards from a $500K bonus if he hits 800 yards from scrimmage. One of these Patriots RBs should pop off against a defense that doesn’t stack the box.

My Picks:

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Sides:

  • The favorites have won each of the Broncos’ last 11 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Broncos are 8-8 ATS on the road from 2023 (6-4 ATS last eight road games).
  • They are 9-8-1 as road underdogs (51%).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have won seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
  • The Broncos have scored last in each of their last five games.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in each of their last three games.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven home games.
  • The Bengals are 11-8-1 ATS as home favorites and 14-8 straight up at home.
  • The Bengals have won 15 of their last 23 home games.
  • Cincy is 17-7 ATS on the road (71%).
  • The Bengals are 12-4 as road favorites ATS (74%).
  • The Bengals have scored first in eight road games.
  • Joe Burrow is 20-11 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Bengals have won their last seven road games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Each of the Broncos’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Broncos have the second-best red zone defense in the NFL
  • Eight of the Broncos’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Broncos’ last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Broncos’ last 27 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Denver is 4-2 O/U at home, averaging 44.8 points per game.
  • The Bengals have the 31st-ranked red-zone defense
  • Ten of the Bengals' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Bengals' last 16 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Bengals' last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bengals’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Cincy is 6-2 toward the over at home, with games averaging north of 58 points per game.
  • Eight of the Bengals' last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Denver is 4-2 ATS as road underdogs (the only blown cover came against the Ravens and Chargers last week). As underdogs, they are 4-4 ATS (2-6 straight up).

The Bengals, meanwhile, continue to thrive against less formidable opponents. They have been favorites 12 times this season, including nine times by more than a field goal, boasting a strong 7-2 record against the spread during a seven-game win streak.

Interestingly, the Bengals have only managed to cover – and win outright – in games where they were favored by at least four points.

The Bengals have covered the spread in their last eight games against teams that held a losing record (12 of last 13).

The 3 point line against the Broncos is definitely teetering on the trend. There's clearly a case to be made that the Broncos are a formidable team at 9-6, with them in prime position to make the playoffs this season with one more victory.

But the market has been on point with Denver losing games when tabbed as the underdog. And we shouldn't overlook how Joe Burrow tends to dominate non-AFC North teams. He holds a 9-14 record against division opponents, compared to a much stronger 27-16-1 in non-divisional contests.

I think the Bengals - despite their terrible defense - win in a higher-scoring game. Denver's defense hasn't played as well as of late, which is why they are on a streak of four straight overs. However, it does appear that No. 2 CB Riley Moss will be returning to the lineup. He has missed the last three games. His status alone might help push this game under the bloated 50-point total, which is likely a shy-away number for me.

As I pointed out last week, it's all about how many points Nix puts up to get this game over the total.

The Bengals' defense is bad, but Cincy games have gone under the total against offenses like Dallas, Cleveland (x2), New York, and New England-the bad teams.

Props:

As I mentioned earlier, we nailed the Bo Nix over on his rushing projection last week. And we need to go straight back to it. The Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards and rushing attempts to QBs this season.

Nix had 25 rushing yards on three carries last week, showing versatility as a rusher. The rookie QB tends to run more when he is an underdog, which is the exact projection for Week 17 (6 of 8 toward the over in his rushing props) against the Bengals in a potential shootout on Saturday night.

Chase Brown led the Bengals' rushing attack with 18 carries for 91 yards in Week 16, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, with a longest rush of 22 yards.

Brown also played a significant role in the passing game, catching three passes for 18 yards, with a long reception of 10 yards. He also had four red-zone carries, but he didn't score. Brown is on a seven-game streak of 90+ yards from scrimmage. He played 98% of the snaps in Week 16.

Tee Higgins had a solid game, hauling in 8 catches for 58 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets (39% Target share, three red-zone targets). His longest reception was for 21 yards. Higgins has 69-plus receiving yards in six of his last eight games.

Courtland Sutton (DEN) needs to average 69 yards per game (nice) to earn $500k per @PropTailz. Per Spotrac, Sutton's incentives are the following:

  • 1,500 Receiving Yards or 10 Receiving TDs + Playoff Berth: $200,000
  • $500,000 each for 1,065 Receiving Yards (plus team improves on 2023 Total Points or Yards/Attempt)
  • $500,000 for 900 receiving yards + team ranks Top 10 in Yards/Pass Attempt

Sutton has at least 70 receiving yards in six of his last eight games.

The Bengals are also the 31st-ranked defense against No. 2 WRs-another week of Marvin Mims versus Troy Franklin WR touchdown roulette.  As a deep threat, I think this could be a Franklin TD game. The Bengals are tied with the Chargers/Rams for most passing TDs of 20-plus air yards.

The rookie WR has hit over 20.5 yards in three of his last four games.

Javonte Williams has rushed for fewer than 25 yards in five of his last six games.

My Picks:

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Sides:

  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 road games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 11 of their last 17 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in six of their last nine games.
  • The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before Week 8.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn’t have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13 in 2021. A new streak has begun, with them winning their last four games. They have dropped three games in a row (two to the Seahawks). And that’s despite them trailing in all contests to start the games (except their last two losses when they opened with leads). They lost in Week 16 after winning in Week 15.
  • The Cardinals have scored first in six of their last seven games.
  • In each of the Cardinals’ last five games as home favorites, the first score has been a Cardinals touchdown.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 13 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals have lost each of their last eight games after coming off overtime.
  • The favorites have won 22 of the Rams' last 26 games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in nine of the Rams' last 11 games.
  • The Rams have won eight of their last 11 home games.
  • The Rams have won each of their last five road games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as road favorites.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 15 games.
  • Since 2023, the Rams are 5-11 as underdogs straight up. This season, they are 4-5 as underdogs (5-4 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers (twice), Vikings, and Bills.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Rams have scored last in their last eight games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (5-9-1).
  • However, this season has mostly been a different story. The Cardinals’ road games have totaled 52, 57, 47, 55 and 66 points. However, two of the last four road games have been unders.
  • They are “only” 3-3-1 toward the over on the road, but four points are the difference between a 6-1 record toward the over.
  • Four of the Cardinals' last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Cardinals' last 16 home games have gone OVER the total points line (4-4 O/U) this season, averaging 43 points per game.
  • Eleven of the Cardinals' last 14 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Rams’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Rams' last 21 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 14-14 toward the O/U in their last 28 games.
  • Seven of the Rams' last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or an injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only eight times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7 and Saints in Week 13. Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football, but they yielded 382 yards of offense to the Patriots in Week 11 and over 480 yards in Week 12 to the Eagles. Against the Jets, they allowed nine points but over 320 yards.
  • Five of the Rams’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The 2024 Rams win and cover as a favorite against inferior teams, especially when they get suppressed lines playing on the road. But this is hardly the case in Week 17 when they are almost-touchdown favorites against the Arizona Cardinals playing at home with no homefield advantage.

The 6.5 points are too much for a divisional matchup between these two teams. Sure, the Cardinals have been very disappointing during this season’s final stretch. But they have still covered the spread in eight of their last 11 road games.

They also killed the Rams 41-10 the last time these teams played this season.

Road teams in Rams games typically are getting the favorable side of the spread number. As a result, the road team has covered the spread in nine of the Rams' last 11 games.

And when the Rams play a bad team at larger spreads, they tend to fall flat.

Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight games against teams with a losing record.

They came through last week against the Jets, but that's more about Gang Green than the Rams. New York outgained the Rams in total yardage. New York was winning 9-6 heading into the fourth quarter.

LA's average margin of victory this season is six points. Two of their wins this season have been more than one score, which was by 10 points in both instances. They don't blow teams out.

If this number were different in a non-divisional game, I would feel very differently about the Rams. But it's just too many points for a team with zero consistency or confidence to win by a touchdown-plus.

After last week, the Cardinals are now 8-3 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season. James Conner has been practicing in a limited capacity this week, and is expected to play.

And defensively, Arizona can throw some stuff to stifle the Rams offensively. The Cardinals’ pass defense has allowed fewer than 240 passing yards in eight straight games.

Ultimately, I think the Rams come away with the victory under the Matthew Stafford/Sean McVay combination, but the point spread is much closer than 6.5 points.

As for the total, I think the under is in play here. The Rams, as favorites, tend to be run-heavy game scripts; last week, their pass rate over expectation was -15%. Five of the Rams’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

The last times these teams faced off (Next Gen Stats), the Rams were held to 2.5 yards per carry on inside rushes, their 2nd-fewest in a game this season. The Rams have had their designed runs come between tackles at the 7th-highest rate this season (58.0%) and have gained zero or fewer yards on only 10.7% of their attempts, the 2nd-lowest stuff rate.

And even though the Cardinals' road games (like last week) have been higher scoring, they seemingly always fall short of the strong point totals.

Props:

With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy this season, Stafford has tossed for at least 250.5 passing yards in seven of his last 10 starts. He didn't have a fully healthy receiving corps the last time he faced the Cardinals.

All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2.

Last week Trey McBride had three receptions for 20 yards, with a long of 11 yards. McBride's first 12-yard catch was removed because of a penalty. He also drew a pass interference call in the end zone.

In his first matchup versus the Rams, McBride caught all six targets (29%) for 67 yards.

I won't go back to the multi-TD odds for McBride this week, but I like his odds of a strong stat line versus the Rams (even if it's just one TD). They are still trying to get him a TD and have nothing else to play for after being eliminated from the playoffs last week.

McBride has over 654.5 yards in seven of his last 10 games (70%).

Cooper Kupp caught all 3 of his targets in Week 16, gaining 24 yards with a long reception of 12 yards. He was second in air yards (32%), but it was only 22 air yards. In the last four games, Kupp has had more than three catches once. 11 catches for 133 yards and just 1 TD over that span. Still, it's another good matchup for him in the slot versus the Cardinals in Week 17. They are one of just three teams to allow more than 50% of their fantasy points to WRs to those aligned inside. Of course, one of those other teams was also the Jets.

My Picks:

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