NFL Saturday Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 18)
This Saturday, NFL Week 18 presents an exciting two-game slate that promises to deliver action-packed matchups, perfect for both casual fans and serious bettors. With games featuring teams battling for playoff spots and others playing for pride, there’s plenty to focus on from a betting perspective, including prop bets, spreads, totals, and same-game parlays.
These games offer a wide array of betting opportunities, with two exciting matchups with playoff implications on the line.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers.
Whether you’re targeting individual player props or looking to make the most of the total points and game spreads, this slate is stacked with betting angles to explore. Let’s dive into what you should be keeping an eye on and how to maximize your bets for this exciting Saturday NFL action.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Sides:
- The Ravens have covered the spread in nine of their last 14 games.
- Baltimore is 16-7 on the money line as home favorites but just 10-13 ATS as home favorites. 7-4-1 as home favorites in their last 12.
- In each of the Ravens’ last three games, the first score has been a Ravens Touchdown.
- Baltimore is 17-6 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 13-5 ATS as a road favorite in their last 18 applicable appearances.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games following a loss.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games following a division loss.
- The Browns have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Ravens.
- The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 18 games.
- The Browns have lost 15 of their last 18 games.
- The Browns have scored last in each of their last 10 home games.
- The Browns are 7-13-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 21 road appearances as underdogs and 6-5 as home underdogs (5-4 over the last eight games as home underdogs).
- The Browns have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 home games.
- Cleveland is 10-7 on the Moneyline at home.
- The Browns have won five of their last eight home games against teams with a winning record.
- The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 home games against teams with winning records.
- The Browns have scored last in 14 of their last 16 games.
- Their opponents have scored first in 11 of the Browns' last 12 games.
- In 13 of the Browns' last 14 games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
- The Browns have won eight of their last 13 games as favorites.
Totals:
- Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (11 of their last 15), but they tended to be against better offenses.
- The Ravens are 12-4 toward the over this season.
- Twelve of the Ravens' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line. Their lowest total game this season has been 34 and 33 points (previous lows of 43 and 45 points).
- The Ravens have gone OVER in 16 of the last 21 games (16 of the previous 23).
- Eight of the Ravens’ last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Ravens' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Browns are 4-3 toward the over in their last seven games with Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback. He was 2-1 toward the over on the road. Dorian Thompson-Robinson started Weeks 16 and 17, and both game totals have gone under the total.
- The Browns’ last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Browns' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Browns’ last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Thirteen of the Browns’ last 24 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Thirteen of the Browns’ last 18 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Browns are 17-16-1 toward the over in their last 33 games.
- Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8, Week 12, and Week 13 - two of which were division home matchups).
- The Browns are 3-5 toward the over at home (under 39.5 points per game).
- Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 12-5 toward the under at home.
Overall:
The Ravens can clinch the AFC North with a win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 18. Given the 20-point spread, I like their odds of locking up the division. But will it be by such a massive margin? I'm not overly convinced. We got the news on Thursday that Bailey Zappe would start for the Browns. The line moved from -18 Ravens to -20. However, Zappe is 5-3 ATS as starter through two NFL seasons (3-3 ATS last year). I think that 20 points is getting out of control a bit.
We have seen this Ravens team play down to their competition at home before, and this is another divisional game. There's a reason why the Browns have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Ravens. Cleveland beat the Ravens back in October at home.
But on the other hand, is starting Bailey Zappe and possibly giving some snaps to Dorian Thompson-Robinson not the clearest tank job for the Browns? I can't believe each playing so perfectly coincides with this mysterious Jameis Winston shoulder injury.
I just hate laying this many points in a divisional matchup, even if the Browns are tanking. The Ravens don't necessarily need to run up the score if they choose, and I am not sure Cleveland's offense can do much of anything with their QB situation.
I think I just like betting the game total under, like last week. I have even less faith that the Browns will do anything close to match Baltimore’s offensive output.
As mentioned in the notes above, the Browns haven't hit their team total other than against Denver and in home divisional games this season. Each of the Browns’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line.
Props:
The Ravens’ defense has also improved dramatically in their last six games, allowing an average of sub-200 passing yards. I think this is going to be tough sledding for the already horrible Browns passing game.
Zay Flowers, with 36% of the Target share (5 total targets all in the first half), caught two passes for 31 yards against the Texans. His 79 air yards showed his ability to stretch the field, contributing to 44% of the team's air yards. Flowers had another 16-yard catch wiped away on a penalty. The second-year Ravens WR was targeted on 38% of his routes run.
Flowers also has a 35% Target share over the last two games. I like the over on his 59.5 receiving yards prop in Week 18. The last time he faced the Browns, he had seven catches on 12 targets for a total of 115 yards.
The projections have him going north of 62 receiving yards.
Look for both Ravens’ tight ends to find the end zone, given that the Browns have been vulnerable against that position in the red zone, allowing the second-most red-zone targets to TEs this season. Isaiah Likely had six targets for 47 yards in the last time the Ravens played the Browns.
My Picks:
- Under 41.5
- Zay Flowers OVER 59.5 receiving yards
- Isaiah Likely anytime TD (+295)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sides:
- The Steelers have won 13 of their last 20 games.
- The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
- The Steelers are 5-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
- In six of the Steelers' last 11 games, the first score has been a Steelers Field Goal.
- Their opponents have scored last in four of the Steelers' last seven games.
- The Steelers are 15-10 ATS on the road (60%)
- The Steelers are 8-8 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
- They are 10-8 as road underdogs. The only road games they haven’t covered were against the Browns/Bills/Eagles/Ravens or contests where they were less than 2-point underdogs or by double-digits.
- As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-4 ATS.
- The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
- The Bengals have covered the spread in their last four games (winners of four straight).
- The Bengals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
- The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games against AFC North opponents.
- Cincy is 17-7 ATS on the road (71%).
- The Bengals are 12-4 as road favorites ATS (74%).
- The Bengals have scored first in eight road games.
- The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight home games.
- The Bengals are 12-8-1 ATS as home favorites and 15-8 straight up at home.
- The Bengals have won 16 of their last 24 home games.
- Joe Burrow is 20-11 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
- The Bengals have covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 games against teams with losing records.
- The Bengals have won their last seven road games against NFC opponents.
Totals:
- The Steelers are 8-8 toward the under this season. 2-5 O/U at home this season (39.6 points per game).
- Seven of the Steelers' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Steelers' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Steelers’ last 19 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Steelers' last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Bengals have the 30th-ranked red-zone defense
- Eleven of the Bengals’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Bengals’ last 17 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Sixteen of the Bengals’ last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Bengals' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Cincy is 7-2 toward the over at home, with games averaging north of 58 points per game.
- Nine of the Bengals’ last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Bengals’ last seven road games in January has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Three of five Bengals games that have gone under the total have been on the road.
Overall:
The Steelers have a non-zero chance of winning the AFC North, but only if the Browns upset the Ravens in the early portion of the Saturday slate. They will most likely be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, which makes this week's game motivating even if they can't win the AFC North. It doesn't take a genius to figure they would rather go on the road against Houston than play Baltimore for a third time (second time on the road) in the first round of the playoffs.
I like the Steelers a lot here, and I couldn't believe they were three-point underdogs at home early this week. The lines have since moved to Pittsburgh +2.5.
I, for one, love the Steelers as home underdogs.
George Pickens is back another week fully removed from his hamstring injury. After missing last week’s game, Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. was back at practice.
The Steelers are 5-3-1 ATS as home underdogs.
Let's also not pretend that the Bengals should have covered the 3.5 points last week. It took an overtime TD (after a missed field goal)to get them the cover with a six-point victory.
And I think the Steelers - who already beat Cincy 44-38 on the road this season - are one of the toughest opponents the Bengals have faced.
The Bengals have been favorites 13 times this season, including 10 times by more than a field goal, boasting a strong 8-2 record against the spread during an eight-game win/cover streak.
Interestingly, the Bengals have only managed to cover - and win outright - in games where they were favored by at least 3.5 points.
As I mentioned last week, the DEN-CIN spread was teetering on the trend, and it went down to the wire.
And we shouldn’t overlook how Joe Burrow tends to struggle versus AFC North teams. He holds a 9-14 record against division opponents, compared to a much stronger 28-16-1 in non-divisional contests.
The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games against AFC North opponents.
The line and non-AFC North matchup last week was enough for the Bengals to escape with a win and cover. I don't think they will be as lucky two weeks in a row.
Give me the Steelers with the upset to push the final dagger into the Bengals 2024 season that will go down as a wasted elite Joe Burrow campaign.
If you also like the Steelers to win on the upset, consider parlaying it with the Raiders +5 vs. the Chargers (or even a Raiders ML play). If Pittsburgh wins, LA has nothing to gain in Week 18, as they will lock into the No. 6 seed. You can get close to 3-to-1 odds.
As for the total, there are only two games the Steelers have played this season with Russ/Pickens, where the game didn’t go over the projected points (5-2). And the Bengals seemingly go over every week. However, because I like Pittsburgh to control this game, I think this game falls short of the point total.
Pittsburgh is 2-5 O/U at home this season (39.6 points per game). And of the five Bengals games that have gone under the total, three have been on the road this season.
Props:
Russell Wilson has tossed for at least 228 passing yards in four of his seven games played with George Pickens healthy this season.
The last time these teams played, Wilson tossed for 400-plus yards.
Jaylen Warren was heavily involved last week, adding 71 yards on 11 attempts, averaging a strong 6.5 yards per carry. Wilson himself had 55 yards on six attempts, with a long run of 15 yards. Cordarrelle Patterson contributed with a single carry for 2 yards.
Harris was outsnapped by Warren by 53% versus 45%. They also split carries in the first half, with Warren seeing eight to Harris' seven. Warren was vastly more efficient and had a TD called back on an offensive holding penalty. He also logged four red-zone touches.
Warren has out-snapped Harris in four straight weeks. He also did more red-zone work for the second straight game.
Warren was also heavily involved, catching five passes for 41 yards on six targets (17% Target share), while Calvin Austin added 31 yards on four receptions operating as the Steelers’ No. 2 WR. Warren was targeted on 40% of his routes out of the backfield.
The Bengals are also the 31st-ranked defense against No. 2 WRs.
Warren also has at least 25 receiving yards in six of his last eight games. The last time he played the Bengals, Warren turned in an impressive receiving performance, catching all 4 of his targets for 55 yards, including a 29-yard gain.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth led the charge with seven catches for 60 yards, earning 23% of the Target share on eight targets (two red-zone targets). He was a steady presence in the passing game and had a solid average of 8.6 yards per catch.
However, he lost a fumble at the end of the game that sealed the victory for the Chiefs. Still, I'd expect him to continue to produce in another plus matchup in Week 18. Muth had his best matchup of the season when he faced the Bengals earlier this season.
Freiermuth caught 6 of 7 passes (team-high 18% Target share) for 68 yards and a red-zone touchdown, demonstrating his value as a go-to option for Wilson.
Mike Gesicki, the tight end, had a solid game in Week 17, catching 10 passes for 86 yards and contributing 24% of the Target share (30% target rate). He led the Bengals with seven targets in the first half.
Gesicki had some contract incentives entering Week 17, and he smashed his over on 55 receptions for the 2024 season. He is three receiving yards away from another $250K bonus (600-plus) and 2 TDs away from another $125K. Gesicki was a reliable target the last time he faced the Steelers, catching all five passes thrown his way for 53 yards. He was targeted once in the red zone but did not score.
Tanner Hudson has missed the last three games, and Gesicki has benefitted. In the last five games, he has had over 2.5 receptions four times (80%).
My Picks: