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NFL Saturday Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Wild Card Weekend)

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This Saturday, NFL Wild Card Weekend presents an exciting two-game slate that promises to deliver action-packed matchups, perfect for both casual fans and serious bettors. With games featuring teams battling for the Super Bowl, there's plenty to focus on from a betting perspective, including prop bets, spreads, totals, and same-game parlays.

These games offer a wide array of betting opportunities, with two exciting matchups with everything on the line.

No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7)
No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Whether you're targeting individual player props or looking to make the most of the total points and game spreads, this slate is stacked with betting angles to explore. Let's dive into what you should be keeping an eye on and how to maximize your bets for this exciting Saturday NFL action.

NFL Saturday Wild Card Weekend Betting Primer

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

Sides:

  • The Texans have won seven of their last 10 home games.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 18 games and are 7-10 ATS this season.
  • They are 10-21-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-8 ATS (40%) as home underdogs ATS.
  • The Texans have scored first in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • Their opponents have scored last in each of the Texans’ last six games.
  • In five of the Texans' last nine games, the first score has been a Texans Touchdown.
  • The Texans have won the first half in 11 of their last 14 games.
  • Thirteen of their last 19 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • The Texans have won their last 11 road games against AFC South opponents.
  • The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
  • Houston is 11-6-1 ATS as a road underdog (68%) and 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
  • The Texans are 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as favorites (8-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Houston is just 17-17 against the spread over its last 34 games.
  • Houston is 4-4 as road favorites. 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
  • The Chargers are 12-5 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in their last five road games.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in 14 of the Chargers' last 17 games.
  • The Chargers have won each of their last eight games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against AFC opponents.
  • The Chargers have scored first in the last 11 of their last 12 games as road favorites.
  • Their opponents have scored last in seven of the Chargers’ last eight road games.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Chargers have scored first in six of their last nine road games.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Chargers have lost eight of their last nine home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 10 points in seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Chargers have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.

Totals:

  • Houston is 6-11 O/U this season. Eleven of the Texans' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 1-7 O/U at home (Under 43 points per game).
  • According to DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Texans' last nine games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Texans' last 11 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Texans have gone under in 22 of their last 36 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Each of the Chargers’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Chargers’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Chargers’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twenty-one of the Chargers’ last 32 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Chargers’ last 19 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 9-8 toward the under this season.

Overall

Shocking absolutely no one, the Houston Texans are hosting the first game of 2024 NFL Wildcard Weekend on Saturday in the late afternoon window.

They will take on the Los Angeles Chargers, who are favored by a field goal on the road. Does this represent an opportunity to buy the dip on the team catching points at home? Hard pass.

Maybe if this was the Chargers of old, but Jim Harbaugh's team has been up to the task all season, especially on the road - where it seems like they play all their games anyway (thanks, SoFi). The Chargers have covered the spread in their last five road games and in nine of their last 11 games overall.

Houston, meanwhile… It just hasn't been their season in any capacity. Other than playing AFC South teams, it has been a struggle for C.J. Stroud. He is 8-3 all-time in the division and 11-10 in all other games.

Aside from scoring first, Houston hasn't done much of anything to instill confidence they can win this game even at home, let alone cover the +3. The Texans are 2-4 on the money line as home underdogs over the last two seasons. 6-8 ATS (40%) as home underdogs ATS. They were one of just two teams that the Titans were able to cover the spread against this season.

The Texans don't blow teams out, and the Chargers have the offensive line pieces in place to mitigate Houston's pass rush.

Give me the Bolts laying 3 on the road. And feel free to live bet this game on the side of the Chargers, given Houston's propensity to start hot but sizzle out in the end.

As for the game total, chase the trends. Texans home games go UNDER, as do Chargers' road games. The Texans’ anemic offense/strong defense combination also provides the perfect obstacle to halt the Chargers' four-game streak of overs.

Props:

As I noted in the overall breakdown, Houston is very much live to score first in this game. But as underdogs, the first TD bets are at longer odds.

Justin Herbert has completed 20.5 passes or more in five straight games. He has also had a 60% hit rate on this number on the road this season. Herbert has also thrown for 1.5 passing TDs in four of his last five games.

TDs are most likely going to come through the air in this game. Houston and Los Angeles rank second and first, respectively, in passing TD percentage allowed this season.

Dalton Schultz also had a solid game last week in limited playing time, with three catches for 29 yards.

Schultz has 29-plus receiving yards in five of his last eight games.

Ladd McConkey has hit 75.5 receiving yards in three straight games and six of his last seven games.

John Metchie has at least two receptions in six of his last seven games.

Diontae Johnson was targeted on the second drive in his Texans debut last week by backup QB Davis Mills twice, catching both his targets for 12 yards (27% target rate). I expect him to mix in WR rotation Robert Woods/John Metchie in the Texans' playoff game against the Chargers.

Metchie suffered what looked like a concussion last week and was a DNP on Tuesday with a shoulder injury. This will likely increase DJ's role in Saturday's late afternoon game.

Therefore, my favorite longshot bet on this contest is attacking Johnson in the anytime TD market.

Fun fact: this is Johnson's third game this season against the Chargers (with a third different team).

He hasn't done anything in any of the other matchups, but I still think he can be a force in the red zone. He has 11 red zone targets this season (mostly with Carolina).

But his presence near the goal line is on his 2024 tape, and I'd envision the Texans deploying him in that fashion with Collins as the obvious No. 1 target. Anytime TD odds are already long +750, but the degenerate in me loves his first TD props at 35-1. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has been singing Johnson’s praise after Week 18, stating that he will be fed more in the postseason.

In Week 18, the Chargers passing game was led by wide receiver Quentin Johnston, who had a standout performance, recording 13 catches for 186 yards, though he could not find the end zone despite three red-zone targets. He caught all nine targets in the first half for 118 yards.

Betting on QJ never seems safe, given his drops, but he only needs to catch one in the end zone to cash the anytime TD bet. It also appears that Joshua Palmer will miss another week with a foot injury.

My Picks:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Sides:

  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 10 of their last 15 games.
  • Baltimore is 17-7 on the money line as home favorites but just 11-13 ATS as home favorites and 8-4-1 ATS as home favorites in their last 13.
  • In each of the Ravens' last four games, the first score has been a Ravens Touchdown.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games following a loss.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games following a division loss.
  • Baltimore is 17-6 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 13-5 ATS as a road favorite in their last 18 applicable appearances.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread between the Steelers and Ravens in nine of the last 11 games.
  • The Steelers have won six of their last seven games as underdogs against the Ravens.
  • The Steelers have lost each of their last five postseason games.
  • The Steelers have won 13 of their last 21 games.
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
  • The Steelers are 15-10 ATS on the road (60%)
  • The Steelers are 8-8 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • They are 10-8 as road underdogs. The only road games they haven't covered were against the Browns/Bills/Eagles/Ravens or contests where they were less than 2-point underdogs or by double-digits.
  • In six of the Steelers’ last 12 games, the first score has been a Steelers Field Goal.
  • Their opponents have scored last in four of the Steelers’ last eight games.
  • The Steelers have lost the first quarter in their last six games.
  • As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-4 ATS.
  • The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
  • The Steelers are 6-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Totals:

  • Eight of the last nine games between the Steelers and Ravens have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (12 of their last 16), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 13-4 toward the over this season.
  • Thirteen of the Ravens’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line. Their lowest total game this season has been 34 and 33 points (previous lows of 43 and 45 points).
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in 17 of the last 22 games.
  • Ten of the Ravens’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Ravens' last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Steelers are 9-8 toward the under this season. 2-6 O/U at home this season (39.6 points per game).
  • Seven of the Steelers’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Steelers’ last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Steelers' last 19 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Steelers’ last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Underdogs in matchups between Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh have an impressive track record, with just shy of an 80%-win rate against the spread when receiving at least three points.

The underdogs have covered the spread between the Steelers and Ravens in nine of the last 11 games. The Steelers have WON six of their last seven games as underdogs against the Ravens.

These AFC North matchups always seem to be crazy tight, but the current spread of Ravens -9.5 suggests this game will be a one-sided contest. Usually, I am squeamish toward near double-digit spreads, but I feel it's way too favored toward Baltimore despite the Steelers' recent falloff.

Because that's where this massive point spread is coming from. What we have seen from these two teams over the last month is the driver behind the spread and not anything historically related to PIT-BAL matchups or Tomlin as a road underdog, etc.

And maybe this is a massive blind spot for me–weighing too heavily into the past compared to the present. But let's not get things too twisted. We saw these teams play in Baltimore in Week 16, which was not that long ago.

The closing line spread was Ravens -7. The game was tied 17-17 with under five minutes remaining in the third quarter. After the Steelers tied the game on a touchdown, kicker Chris Boswell kicked the ball out of bounds on the ensuing kickoff, resulting in a short field for Baltimore. They scored a touchdown on a short field six plays later.

The score was then 24-17 until Russell Wilson was picked off by cornerback Marlon Humphrey for six, extending the Raven’s lead to 14 points.

The Ravens fumbled three times and didn't lose any of them in the Week 16 game.

I should also note that the Steelers played without many of their best players. Joey Porter Jr. got injured in this game, playing just 26% of the snaps. George Pickens, DeShon Elliott, Larry Ogunjobi, and Donte Jackson were all inactive. T.J. Watt was also nursing an ankle injury.

Meanwhile, the Ravens will be without No. 1 and Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers in the Wildcard Round.

The value is so clearly on the Steelers' side to cover this egregiously bloated spread. Steel Curtain +9.5.

As for the total, it's an under play as I look for the Steelers to cover. When they beat the Ravens earlier this season, the game total went way under 43.5 points. The matchup went over in Baltimore, but the pick-six and a late field goal by the Ravens pushed it over the total with the last 10 points. It would have finished much closer to 41 points.

Props:

Week 19 will be the third time the Ravens will face the Steelers this season. Notable numbers to review based on the previous two matchups this season:

Lamar Jackson has thrown for exactly 207 passing yards in both of his matchups versus the Steelers this season.

The Ravens QB has thrown for fewer than 216.5 passing yards in four of his last seven contests. Take the passing yards under for Week 19, especially with Flowers out.

On the ground in Week 18, Najee Harris led the Steelers with 12 carries for 36 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown. His longest run went for 11 yards. Jaylen Warren also contributed six carries for 21 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, and had a long run of 9 yards.

Very bizarre usage for the backfield, given the recent trends heavily favoring Warren. In Week 18, Harris out-snapped Warren 49% to 38%. He out-carried him nine to five in the first half.

Harris also got banged up in the fourth quarter, although he returned to the game. I liked Warren a lot in this game, so I was shocked to see him used so little, especially as a receiver (one target). First time in a month that Harris out-snapped Warren.

Warren has at least 25 receiving yards in six of his last nine games.

Harris handled 18 carries for 63 yards in his first matchup versus Baltimore (nine for 42 in the second). Warren contributed 41 yards on nine carries in his first matchup against the Ravens and 48 yards in the second.

Warren also caught all 4 of his targets for 27 yards in the first game and five for 44 in the second. I'm going right back to the over on his receiving yards prop this week at 21.5 yards.

Pat Freiermuth was the standout target for Wilson in Week 18, catching eight passes for 85 yards and scoring a touchdown-12 total targets when you include penalties. The Steelers' tight end was targeted on 39% of his routes run.

I'd expect him to continue to produce in another plus-matchup for TEs in Week 19. However, the Ravens have had his number this season.

Freiermuth had just 14 yards on two receptions from 2 targets in the first matchup versus the Ravens. In the second game, he recorded three receptions for 16 yards.

It might be wise to take the under on his receiving yards and receptions props this week. With Wilson and Pickens in the lineup, Freiermuth has surpassed 4.5 catches three times in eight games (38%).

My Picks

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