NFL Saturday Night Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 16)
Week 16 presents a special Saturday double-header filled with pivotal matchups and intriguing betting opportunities as the NFL season marches toward the playoffs. I’m Andrew Erickson, here to help you navigate through the exciting day of football, starting with the Houston Texans visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC showdown at Arrowhead Stadium, followed by a classic AFC North grudge match as the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.
This Saturday features teams with contrasting styles and playoff aspirations, offering a variety of angles for bettors. From game spreads and totals to the most enticing player props, I’ll provide all the insights you need to make informed bets. Whether you’re looking to enhance your same-game parlays or identify value in individual player performances, this guide will cover all bases.
Get ready for a day packed with intense football action that’s sure to impact the playoff race. So, set your lineups, check your bets, and prepare for a double dose of NFL excitement. Stay tuned for more detailed analysis and tips in our full BettingPros Week 16 Saturday Primer!
NFL Week 16 Saturday Double-Header
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Sides:
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 11 of their last 20 games.
- The Chiefs have won 19 of their last 20 games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 19 of the Chiefs' last 27 games.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 road games.
- The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 25 home games
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
- The Chiefs have scored last in each of their last six home games.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 15 games and are 6-8 ATS this season.
- The Texans are 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games as favorites (8-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
- Thirteen of their last 18 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
- Houston is just 16-15 against the spread over its last 31 games.
- Houston is 4-4 as road favorites. 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
- Houston is 10-5-1 ATS as a road underdog (67%) and 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
- The Texans have won seven of their last nine home games.
- The Texans have scored first in each of their last nine games.
- The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
- They are 9-19-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-7 ATS (45%) as home underdogs ATS.
- The Texans have won the first half in 10 of their last 11 games.
- In four of the Texans’ last six games, the first score has been a Texans Touchdown.
Totals:
- Each of the last five games between the Texans and Chiefs has gone OVER the total points line.
- Fourteen of the Chiefs' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line (16 of the last 23).
- Nineteen of the Chiefs’ last 24 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just two teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11 and the Panthers in Week 12).
- KC is 3-4 toward the over at home this season (under 42 points per game).
- They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
- Three of the Chiefs' last four road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Houston is 4-10 O/U this season. 10 of the Texans’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 1-6 O/U at home (45 points per game).
- According to DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Texans’ last nine games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
- The Texans have gone under in 21 of their last 33 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
- Seven of the Texans’ last 10 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
As we gear up for the Week 16 showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans, all eyes are once again on Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Despite concerns surrounding his ankle, which had initially cast the Chiefs as home underdogs, recent developments have shifted the narrative. With Mahomes now practicing fully and the Chiefs favored by 2.5 points, it’s clear that “ankle gate†might be more of a minor setback than a major obstacle. Mahomes’ history of bouncing back from similar issues suggests that his current health might not heavily impact the game’s outcome. As we analyze this matchup, it’s worth considering the resilience and performance of Mahomes, alongside other critical factors, without overemphasizing his recent injury scare.
We also have plenty of other factors to look at–mainly the fact that both teams are bad ATS.
KC had a surprising blow-out victory last week on the back of a Jameis Winston implosion performance. It was the Chiefs’ first cover as a favorite since October. Part of their issue has been overinflated spreads.
But KC has now covered three of their four games this season as small favorites. I argued that four points wasn't hardly enough last week. And now bettors are getting another discount on the Chiefs because of the Mahomes' ankle.
I like the Chiefs laying the points at home, and I am kicking myself for not grabbing them earlier this week when they were underdogs.
Because as tough as it has been to bet on the Chiefs ATS, the Texans are also a terrible bet.
They have been at their best on the road as underdogs, but that's typically when they have gotten more points to work with. Keep in mind that they are just 6-10 on the money line as road underdogs. And all but one of those wins came in divisional matchups. Should we feel good about betting them to cover if they aren’t live to win? I think not.
We could see Houston start fast, so an opportunity to live bet the Chiefs on the ML might be the best approach while flexing your in-game betting prowess to friends at Christmas parties this Saturday. KC is 22-4 on the money line at home. I also think that the live betting algorithm won't consider how Mahomes "looks" off the ankle - which is causing this suppressed/discounted line.
Given that occurrence, I would look toward Texans' pass-catchers as first/anytime TD targets.
For me, it's going to be Tank Dell. He is third on the team in red-zone targets but only has two TDs. And although I complained about him in the Week 16 Fantasy Football Forecast, he actually was very efficient on a per-touch basis after looking further into his game.
He totaled six touches between catches, rushes, and punt returns, where he netted 15-plus yards per touch. Maybe he is finally getting healthier after breaking his leg last season. +1400 for the first TD score.
If anything, my best bet in this game would be on the game total under – although this is a scary proposition in a Patrick Mahomes-C.J. Stroud matchup.
Nineteen of the Chiefs’ last 24 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line (79%). Houston is 4-10 O/U this season. Ten of the Texans’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line (76%).
However, both of these offensive lines have issues with pass protection. The Texans have the No. 1 defense DVOA, while KC ranks 11th. Houston also boasts one of the league's best pass rushers.
If you've watched any football this season, you know that these two offenses haven't been close to reaching their lofty preseason expectations. There's a reason why the total is at 41.5 between the two teams combined for an average of 11 wins.
Props:
Given Noah Gray's emergence, Travis Kelce's decline, and a tough matchup versus the Texans, Kelce is a under to bet this week.
According to Next Gen Stats, Travis Kelce has averaged just 3.7 yards after the catch per reception this season, his fewest in the NGS era (since 2016), gaining more yards than expected on just 34.1% of his receptions (lowest since at least 2016). Kelce has also recorded an average speed of 11.36 mph on his routes this season, his slowest since at least 2016.
Kelce has finished UNDER 45.5 receiving yards at a 50% hit rate this season.
Houston is No. 3 in DVOA versus tight ends this season. They have also allowed the 5th-fewest catches and 4th-fewest yards to the position.
What is one of the Chiefs' biggest weaknesses? Stopping tight ends. They have allowed the most yards to TEs this season.
Dalton Schultz has 33-plus yards in three of his last five games.
After posting +122 rushing yards over expected through the first nine weeks of the season (9th-most in the NFL), Joe Mixon has alternated games of positive and negative RYOE since then (Next Gen Stats).
Mixon generated a season-low -48 RYOE in Week 10 but followed that performance with +44 RYOE in Week 11, his 2nd-most in a game this season. Mixon then recorded -29 RYOE in Week 12, +30 RYOE in Week 13, and -31 RYOE in Week 15 after the Texans' Week 14 bye. The Chiefs have allowed opposing running backs to average just 3.7 yards per carry this season (2nd-fewest in the NFL), generating -64 RYOE (5th-fewest) via Next Gen Stats.
Mixon has rushed for under 60.5 yards in three of his last five games.
According to Next Gen Stats, Xavier Worthy has recorded a 22.3% target rate over the last five weeks, a 5.2% increase from his target rate through the first 10 weeks of the season.
Worthy has also caught 24 of his 35 targets for 248 yards and a touchdown over the last five weeks, eclipsing his yardage total from the first 10 weeks (246).
The rookie has been coming on lately, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards since Week 11. He has four catches or more in five straight games, with 40-plus yards.
My Picks:
- Chiefs -3.5
- Under 42
- Dalton Schultz OVER 33.5 receiving yards
- Tank Dell anytime TD (+290)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Sides:
- The Steelers have won their last six games as underdogs against the Ravens.
- The Steelers have won 13 of their last 18 games.
- The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games.
- In six of the Steelers' last nine games, the first score has been a Steelers Field Goal.
- Their opponents have scored last in four of the Steelers' last five games.
- The Steelers are 15-9 ATS on the road (62%)
- The Steelers are 8-7 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
- They are 10-7 as road underdogs. The only road games they haven’t covered were against the Browns/Bills/Eagles or contests where they were less than 2-point underdogs or by double-digits.
- As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-3 ATS.
- The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
- The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight home games against AFC North opponents.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in seven of their last 12 games.
- Baltimore is 15-7 on the money line as home favorites but just 9-13 ATS as home favorites. 6-4-1 as home favorites in their last 11.
- Baltimore is 16-6 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 12-5 ATS as a road favorite in their last 17 applicable appearances.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games following a loss.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games following a division loss.
Totals:
- Each of the last eight games between the Steelers and Ravens has gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Steelers are 7-7 toward the under this season. 2-3 O/U at home this season (39 points per game).
- Six of the Steelers’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Steelers' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Steelers’ last 18 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Steelers' last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (10 of their last 14), but they tended to be against better offenses.
- The Ravens are 11-3 toward the over this season.
- Eleven of the Ravens' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line. Their lowest total game this season has been 34 points (previous lows of 43 and 45 points).
- The Ravens have gone OVER in 15 of the last 19 games (15 of the previous 21).
- Seven of the Ravens’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Ravens' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
As the NFL Saturday night spotlight turns to the enduring rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, fans are in for what promises to be another classic nail-biter. The historical intensity of these matchups ensures that every clash is fiercely contested, often down to the last play. When these two teams last met in Week 11, the Steelers eked out an 18-16 victory, narrowly avoiding overtime thanks to a failed two-point conversion by the Ravens.
The Steelers not only covered the +3 spread in that encounter but also secured an outright win, despite both teams exhibiting struggles on offense and converting a mere 8 of 27 third downs combined. Notably, Pittsburgh’s offense relied heavily on field goals (six, to be precise), reflecting their challenges in the red zone.
Looking ahead to this rematch, historical trends play a significant role in setting expectations. Underdogs in matchups between Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh have an impressive track record, with an 80% win rate against the spread when receiving at least three points. Remarkably, the Steelers have emerged victorious in their last six games as underdogs against the Ravens. This statistic and Tomlin's notable success as a road underdog and against the Ravens suggest a solid rationale for leaning towards Pittsburgh +6.5.
However, a banged up T.J. Watt (angle), although expected to play, could complicate Pittsburgh’s defensive game plan. Not having No. 1 WR George Pickens (still sidelined with a hamstring injury) also hurts. But it’s all factored into the spread.
The Ravens’ defense stifled the Steelers in the first matchup, and they have improved dramatically in their last four games, allowing an average of sub-200 passing yards.
As for the game’s total, historical trends lean strongly towards the under, suggesting that it will likely be a low-scoring affair if the Steelers manage to cover or win. Conversely, a higher-scoring game might favor the Ravens, especially with them at -7.
There's a way to double down on the outcome of this game, regardless of which side you are on.
I'll trust the process and take 10-4 underdog Steelers on the road, catching 7 points and a total going under 44.5 points.
The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight home games against AFC North opponents.
Without Pickens, in the last two weeks, both Steelers games have finished under the projected game total.
Props:
Derrick Henry has rushed for more than 80.5 yards three times in his last seven games played. That includes being held to 65 rushing yards in an earlier matchup against the Steelers.
Russell Wilson had two carries for three yards the last time he played against the Ravens before he lost two yards on back-to-back kneels in victory formation. He has over 13 rushing yards in back-to-back games and three of his last four. Look for him to continue scrambling without his No. 1 WR.
Najee Harris led the team in rushing with 14 yards on six carries in Week 15, averaging just 2.3 yards per carry. His rushing attempts yielded minimal yardage, contributing 33% of the snaps. Wilson added 13 yards on four attempts, while Jaylen Warren contributed 12 yards on four carries. Harris contributed with one reception for 7 yards, and Jaylen Warren added one reception for 3 yards. Warren played 53% of the snaps. Both Steelers RBs saw one red zone carry. Warren has out-snapped Harris in back-to-back weeks. Cordarrelle Patterson had 9 yards on two carries, and Justin Fields had 8 yards on one carry.
As alluded to last week, the Steelers RBs were heading in the wrong direction. The rest of the schedule is brutal for these Steelers RBs. The Steelers play against the Ravens' tough run defense in Week 16. To make matters worse for Harris, he also lost a fumble last week - although the final box score credits his QB with the lost fumble.
The Steelers RB1 needs volume to get to 50-plus yards, and that might not be in store for the Steelers as they are heavy underdogs.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth was the only player to score, catching 3 of 6 targets for 22 yards and one touchdown. Freiermuth had 50 air yards (34% of air yards share), with six targets, three receptions for 22 yards, and one touchdown on one of his two red-zone targets. The Steelers tight end was targeted on 32% of his routes run with a team-high 29% Target share. He had another catch reversed on a review as well.
Eight of the last 11 TEs to play Baltimore have gone OVER their receiving yards prop.
Three straight strong games for the Muth with Russ at QB. No doubt his role has been boosted without George Pickens available. Last three games, Pat Freiermuth has a team-high 20% Target share, with 12 catches for 138 yards and 3 TDs. I like his TD props as well.
Zay Flowers hauled in 6 catches on seven targets for 53 yards, with a long of 15 yards in Week 15. He led the team with a 29% Target share, so do not panic. He has six-plus targets since Week 8, with five or more catches in four of seven games. The Week 16 projections have him closer to five catches. The last time Flowers scored, it was against the Steelers. He also had another two-point conversion target in that matchup.
Jaylen Warren has at least 20.5 receiving yards in four of his last six games, including 27 yards against the Ravens back in Week 11.
My Picks: