NFL Saturday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Odds & Picks: Lions vs. Cowboys (Week 17)

by Mike Fanelli |
Dec 30, 2023

Saturday night we have a matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys. Millions of dollars will get bet on this game. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look.

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Week 17 Saturday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Detroit Lions First TD Scorer: Jahmyr Gibbs (+320)

The Lions have arguably the best 1-2 punch at running back. David Montgomery started the year as the featured running back, but Gibbs has become the lead guy lately. The rookie running back has nine rushing touchdowns and 10 offensive scores, ranking second on the team in both categories. He has five touchdowns over the past three weeks, totaling at least one in every contest, including two in back-to-back games. More importantly, Gibbs has the first Detroit touchdown in three of the past seven contests.

While the Cowboys have one of the top defenses, they have had some issues keeping running backs out of the end zone. Dallas has surrendered eight rushing touchdowns to running backs, ranking 16th in the league. However, they have given up four touchdowns to running backs over the past two weeks, the second-most in the NFL. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against the Cowboys has been by a running back in 38.5% of the games this season, including back-to-back weeks.

Dallas Cowboys First TD Scorer: CeeDee Lamb (+270)

Last year, Lamb was a scoring machine. He led the Cowboys with nine receiving touchdowns, ending the season sixth in the NFL. However, the former Oklahoma star has taken his game to another level in 2023. Lamb already has nine receiving touchdowns, matching his career high. He also has two rushing scores this year, ranking second on the team. The superstar wide receiver has found the end zone in 60% of the games this season, including seven straight. Furthermore, Lamb has the first Cowboys touchdown in four consecutive games.

Despite spending significant money in free agency to improve their secondary, the Lions have struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks this year. Detroit has surrendered 24 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks and 18 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the seventh and fourth-most in the NFL. They have given up at least one receiving touchdown to wide receivers in six of seven games since their Week 9 bye. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against the Lions has been by a wide receiver in 46.2% of the games this season.

Anytime TD Scorer: Sam LaPorta (+150)

Many had high hopes for LaPorta after the rookie tight end shined during training camp. However, no one expected the former Iowa star to be this dominant as a rookie. LaPorta is third on the team in offensive scores but first in receiving touchdowns (nine). He has the fourth-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL. Furthermore, the rookie has the most receiving scores among tight ends, totaling three more than anyone else. LaPorta had three touchdowns two weeks ago against Denver on a Saturday night.

More importantly, the former Iowa star has an appealing matchup in Week 17. The Cowboys have surrendered six receiving touchdowns to tight ends, the seventh-most in the NFL. While they haven't given up a touchdown to a tight end since Week 11, Dallas has struggled with more athletic and talented players at the position. The Cowboys gave up three receiving touchdowns to George Kittle on three receptions earlier this year. Don't be surprised if LaPorta finds the end zone against Dallas.

Anytime TD Scorer: Brandin Cooks (+165)

When the Cowboys traded for Cooks in the offseason, the goal was to give Dak Prescott a consistent No. 2 wide receiver opposite Lamb. While the veteran hasn't been the most consistent weapon, he has helped the team in the touchdown department. Cooks has six receiving touchdowns in 2023, the second-most on the team behind Lamb and his highest total since 2017. More importantly, Cooks has played well lately after starting the season slowly, totaling three receiving touchdowns over the past five matchups.

Meanwhile, Detroit has one of the top run defenses in the NFL. Therefore, expect Dallas to lean on Prescott and the passing attack over the ground game on Saturday night. The Lions' pass defense should be easy pickings for Prescott. They have given up 18 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the fourth-most in the NFL. More importantly, Cooks plays better at home than on the road, scoring four of his six touchdowns this year at AT&T Stadium.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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