NFL Saturday Same Game Parlays: Steelers vs. Ravens (Week 16)
The NFL regular season’s only Saturday contests are this weekend, with all participants slated to turn around and play on Christmas. Everyone playing on Saturday is a playoff squad. The games could be tightly contested, with teams valuing possessions and a lack of fireworks. As a result, many of the legs of the following two same-game parlays (SGPs) are unders. Still, a few overs were also appealing.
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Saturday’s Best Same Game Parlay Bets: Steelers vs. Ravens
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Steelers vs. Ravens
- Leg 1: Lamar Jackson Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Leg 2: Russell Wilson Under 205.5 Passing Yards (-120)
- Leg 3: Derrick Henry 70+ Rushing Yards (-225)
- Leg 4: Jaylen Warren Over 2.5 Receptions (-150)
Lamar Jackson is having another fantastic season. Yet, he’s facing his kryptonite on Saturday. The defending NFL MVP hasn’t had answers for the questions Mike Tomlin has posed.
In five career starts against the Steelers, Jackson has passed for 161, 207, 208, 236 and 253 yards. Thus, Jackson has averaged 213 passing yards per game against the Steelers, with a median of 208. He also passed for only 207 yards against the Steelers in Week 11 this season.
Fortunately for Jackson, Derrick Henry is an imposing figure in the backfield, and Todd Monken can lean on King Henry. The Ravens have had a 48% situation-neutral rush rate this year and 51% since Week 11. Henry has averaged 105.3 rushing yards per game in 14 games this year, tallying at least 70 in 10 games. The bulldozer running back had just 65 rushing yards against the Steelers in Week 11 but gashed them for 5.0 yards per carry. Monken would be foolish not to ramp up Henry more often in the rematch.
The Steelers and Russell Wilson will be without No. 1 wideout George Pickens this week. Wilson has passed for only 158 and 128 yards in the previous two weeks without Pickens. Pittsburgh’s passing offense is a dumpster fire without Pickens. Wilson had only 205 passing yards in Pittsburgh’s Week 11 victory against the Ravens with his top pass-catching weapon.
While I love Wilson’s odds to fall short of 205.5 passing yards on Saturday, he’ll have to pass to someone. Jaylen Warren should be on the receiving end of a handful of looks from Wilson. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in the previous two weeks, Warren had a 50.9% route participation rate, 10.4% target share, 0.18 targets per route run and three receptions.
Pittsburgh’s pass-catching back was under 2.5 receptions in the last two games, but he had over 2.5 in the three previous games, including reeling in four against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed 4.93 receptions per game to running backs this season. Warren should be busy if the Steelers are in a negative game script. FantasyPros projects Warren for 2.7 receptions against the Ravens.
Parlay Odds: +650
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.