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NFL Sunday Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Week 17 (2023)

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Let's dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer: Week 17

Before we leap into this week's games, let's rewind to the highlights and lowlights of Week 16's matchups. Note we have hit on 71% of our NFL totals picks  Weeks 11-15 (41-17). So naturally, we have our worst totals outing in recent memory. Classic.

Still, when in doubt, bet the game total!

Week 16

  • Spread: 5-4 (55%)
  • Totals: 5-8 (38%)
  • Player Props: 18-22 (45%)

Overall: 28-34

2023 season

  • Spread: (47%)
  • Totals: (59%)
  • Player Props: (52%)

Overall: (52%)

As always, at the top, I'll feature my top bets, categorized into underdogs, favorites, and Over/Unders. This quick-hitting guide is your shortcut to accessing my best plays. Keep an eye out for my favorite player props, released in a separate article every Saturday. Let's dive into the Sunday frenzy of NFL Week 17!

Top Favorites:

  • Colts -5
  • Buccaneers -2.5
  • Ravens -3
  • Broncos -3.5
  • Vikings -1

Top Underdogs:

  • N/A

Top Totals:

  • NE/BUF under 40 
  • CHI/ATL under 38
  • NYG/LAR over 43.5
  • KC/CIN under 44
  • WAS/SF over 49.5
  • SEA/PIT under 41 

Buffalo Bills (-14) vs. New England Patriots

Sides:

  • The Buffalo Bills are 7-4 as a favorite this season. But Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 11 games. Woof.
  • They have covered just 42% of their games ATS as favorites.
  • They are 6-1 and 4-3 ATS at home.
  • The New England Patriots have the worst overall record in the AFC (29%) at 4-11.
  • 5-10 ATS this season (33%). Woof.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as road underdogs against AFC East opponents.

Game Total:

  • 6 of 9 Bills' last games have gone UNDER.
  • The Bills are 5-2 toward the under at home this season averaging under 44 points scored
  • Each of the Bills’ last five games at home has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams have combined for 40 points scored on average
  • These teams have combined for a 19-11 record toward the under

Overall:

The Bills were a mess entering Week 11 - even though their offense has been a top unit across several advanced metrics - but they righted the ship against Zach Wilson-led Jets squad. They have had big wins over the Chiefs/Cowboys, but what they did versus the Chargers (almost losing outright) was a head-scratcher.

The Patriots have been one of the worst teams against the spread this season. But under Bailey Zappe they are 2-2 ATS and 2-2 straight up. And the two games they failed to cover were within 3 points of the final number. Simply put, they have played teams very close with Zappe. In fact, over the last 7 games New England has played, 6 of the final scores have been decided by 6 or fewer points. They lost to KC at home by 10 points.

Still, the Bills' track record of stomping teams at home cannot be ignored. I'd likely avoid the sides here in a divisional matchup - given the 11.5-point spread. Although I do lean toward the Patriots +13.5 if forced to choose a side. But neither side should be backed confidently, given how badly each has been meeting expectations thus far.

The best bet here is clearly on the under on the full game total. The Patriots defense has allowed 300-plus yards once since Week 9. And their defense overall ranks 3rd in fewest explosive plays per game, while Buffalo is also above average in that metric.

The Patriots have uncharacteristically hit three straight overs. Regression is coming.

Props:

Running back James Cook has been on a heater, but has only surpassed 69.5 yards in two of his last 4 games played. Cook has just 73 or more yards in one game (vs Dallas) in his last five games.

He was held to 56 yards the last time he faced the Patriots. I think he will run into similar challenges this week.

The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.26 yards per carry to opposing RBs. The Patriots haven't allowed an RB to hit 55 rushing yards since Week 10. In the last five games, they have allowed an average of fewer than 45 rushing yards to RBs.

However, the Patriots have not been as great at stopping RBs in the passing game, allowing the 7th-most receiving yards to RBs this season. Cook caught 3 balls for 46 yards the last time these teams played. Even though Cook’s receiving yards prop burned us last week, I think we go right back to it this week. Before last week, he had hit four straight games with 29-plus receiving yards.

My Picks:

Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins

Sides:

  • Miami is 6-2 ATS and 7-1 straight up at home this season, winning by no less than two TDs in all but 3 contests.
  • They have been a solid bet backing at home, even as heavy favorites. 10-2 overall as a favorite.
  • But Miami is 4-3 ATS on the road. 33% cover rate as an underdog.
  • The road team has covered the spread in four of the Dolphins' last 6 games.
  • The Ravens have won nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.

Game Total:

  • Baltimore is 4-3 toward the over at home this season averaging 49 points scored
  • Miami's defense has played better than how they started the season, allowing fewer than 300 yards per game in six of their last 8 games. 4-4 toward the O/U.
  • What also works in the Dolphins' favor is that do not allow explosive plays - similar to that of the Buffalo Bills.

  • Six of the Dolphins’ last seven games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams have averaged 48 points scored
  • The Baltimore defense is allowing the league's lowest yards per attempt (5.0) and the third-best red-zone conversion rate. 5th-best defense on 3rd downs.

Overall:

As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. I expect them to get their best from Lamar Jackson in another marquee matchup. Given the Dolphins' struggles on the road - and versus the better teams in the NFL - I'll take the Ravens with the field goal plus the hook. Although this number has been bet down in similar spots, so I’d be aggressively hopping on the Ravens -3.

As for the total, I don't like it as much as the Ravens’ side. Lean toward under at 46.5 points with the Ravens’ elite defense and the Dolphins’ underrated defensive squad.

Props:

The Dolphins are allowing the 10th-most receptions per game to tight ends (5.3). 7 of the last 10 tight ends to face the Dolphins have surpassed their receiving yards prop. Isaiah Likely has 40 or more yards in four straight games. He’s gone OVER his receiving yards prop in all four contests.

Since the Dolphins' Week 10 bye week, they have allowed one RB to rush for more than 40 yards against them. Justice Hill has not rushed for 30 yards since Week 9. He's the change-of-pace back for Baltimore that does not project for a massive workload. His rushing attempts prop is just 8.5 carries, with his projection on BettingPros toward the under.

My Picks:

 Indianapolis Colts (-4) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sides:

  • The favorites have won each of the Colts’ last 10 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss.
  • The Colts are 100% ATS as a favorite this season. 5-0 as a favorite straight-up and ATS.
  • The Colts have won 5 of their last 7.
  • The Raiders are 3-6 as an underdog.
  • The Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS over their last 8 games.
  • Las Vegas is 2-5 overall on the road.
  • Aidan O'Connell's first win on the road came last week - when his defense scored two TDs while he threw for 62 yards.

Game Total:

  • The Colts are 6-1 toward the over at home averaging 54 points scored
  • The Colts have been one of the few "over" machines this season, boasting an impressive 10-5 record toward the over.
  • Seven of the Colts’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 4-1 toward the over in their last 5 games.
  • These teams average 43.5 points scored combined
  • The Colts have not been great in the red zone/third down, and their offense struggled as a result in Week 16.
  • The Raiders defense ranks 25th on third downs and in the red zone. The Colts offense should bounce back with Jonathan Taylor AND Michael Pittman Jr. at full strength.
  • Indy has pushed unthinkable anemic offenses like the Titans/Steelers to overs. Don't think they can also push the Raiders to an over in the dome.
  • Six of the Raiders' last 8 games have gone UNDER the total points line
  • Las Vegas' defense has also been vastly underrated: 8th in total DVOA and 6th versus the pass in DVOA. Only one QB they have faced has thrown for 300-plus yards this season
  • 9 of the last 11 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected passing yards total this season. Their defense is their strongest unit.

Overall:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I've learned the hard way that you don't want to bet on the Colts when they close as underdogs. Twice they opened as favorites, just for the lines to flip and for them to lose outright and ATS. But as closing favorites, the Colts are a team that has continued to deliver.

The biggest mismatch is that the Raiders defense cannot stop the run. 19th in run defense DVOA. I fully expect Shane Steichen to expose the weakness of the Raiders.

This game is easy for me to back the Colts given how great ATS they have been as a favorite. The Raiders can't win on the road, and they got bailed out last week by two defensive TDs.

As for the total, it's another over for me. The Colts’ run defense has been questionable even with the return of Grover Stewart the last two weeks - allowing over 120 yards per game to opposing RBs.

Props:

Jakobi Meyers has gone under 4.5 receptions and 39.5 receiving yards in six of Aidan O'Connell's 9 starts this season. He's hit the over in his last 3 of 5 games, but the larger sample size leans toward the under on Meyers. Feel strongly about the under on his receptions prop,

My Picks

Chicago Bears (-2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sides:

  • The Bears have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Chicago covered against a losing team for the first-time last week.
  • The underdogs have won eight of the Falcons’ last 10 games.
  • Chicago is 2-1 as a favorite. 50% ATS.
  • Chicago is also 4-3 at home, and 4-0-1 ATS in Justin Fields' last five starts. Against all but one team with a winning record. 3-2 straight up.
  • Essentially, since the Bears defense started playing halfway decent, Fields has been able to orchestrate more winning performances straight up and ATS.
  • When Chicago has established an effective ground game - as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Carolina, Detroit and Arizona- their offense has been effective, and they have played games tight. 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 games.
  • The Falcons boast the 5th-best run defense in DVOA this season. 3rd-best defense in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season.
  • The Falcons are 5-2 at home versus 2-5 on the road.
  • Away from Atlanta, they have averaged fewer than 15 points per game.

Game Total:

  • The Bears have averaged 43.4 points at home to a 3-3-1 O/U record.
  • Six of the Bears' last 8 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 3-0-1 toward the under the last 4 weeks
  • Each of the Falcons’ last nine games as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 41 points per game
  • These teams have combined for 2 overs in their last 10 games played
  • Atlanta has the No. 1 red-zone defense and ranks 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate faced. The Colts have not been great in the red zone/third down, and their offense struggled as a result in Week 16.
  • The Bears have the 32nd-ranked red-zone defense and rank 29th in 3rd-down conversion rate faced.
  • Their offense ranks 12th in both those categories

Overall:

Taylor Heinicke started last week for Desmond Ridder and continued the impressive record that the Falcons boast at home. Heinicke completed 23 of 33 passes for 229 yards and a touchdown. In the receiving corps, Bijan Robinson again led with 50 yards with 7 catches and 10 targets (31% target share).

But as we have said in many versions of the BP Primer, Atlanta is not a team you want to bet on the road.

Therefore, I'll opt for an improved Bears team that has won four straight home games. Their defense is underrated and that will present issues for a Falcons indoor team that has not played well away from Atlanta at any point this season.

But the total might be the best approach to this game. Going heavily toward the under at 38 points. Both defenses are vastly underrated. The Falcons offense plays worse on the road. Both teams can stop the run. And Fields might be without some of these top passing options, with Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney banged up.

Props:

The Bears have one of the league's best-run defenses, ranking top-5 in fewest yards per carry allowed this season. The Falcons RBs will struggle rushing versus the Bears are a no-run defense. Other than the Lions' RBs, no RB has rushed for 60 yards versus the Bears' defense since Week 4.

Instead, look for the over on the Bijan Robinson’s receiving yards and receptions. Last week, Robinson led with 50 receiving yards 7 catches and 10 targets (31% target share). Look for Robinson to see crazy usage as a receiver yet again. The rookie route participation (30-plus routes run) is off-the-charts. And the matchup is divine. Chicago has allowed the most receiving yards (59.1) and second-most receptions to RBs this season (6.5). Robinson has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in four of his last 5 games.

8 of the last 13 QBs facing the Bears have gone UNDER their yardage totals, including 6 of the last 9. Taylor Heinicke under 200.5 passing yards.

The Bears' pass defense has improved dramatically since a rocky start.  At home, they have allowed the league's 7th-lowest yards per attempt (5.5). No QB they have faced in Chicago has thrown for more than 240 yards.

My Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) vs. Carolina Panthers

Sides:

  • The Panthers have lost each of their last eight road games.
  • In each of the Panthers’ last six games, the first score has been an opponent Touchdown.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
  • They are 67% ATS as a favorite this season, while just 33% as an underdog.
  • Only the Saints are worse ATS than the Panthers (4-10-1) as they boast the worst record overall in the NFL.
  • With offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling the plays in Carolina, the Panthers are a surprising 4-2 ATS. 2-0 ATS over their last two games (but both at home)

Game Total:

  • The Jaguars average 45 points at home (4-3 O/U)
  • Seven of the Panthers’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 43 points
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in four of their last six games (all games going over that matched the threshold)
  • The Panthers have scored more than 23 points twice with Bryce Young at QB.

Overall:

The Panthers defense can't stop the run. That's a mismatch the Jaguars can take advantage of with Travis Etienne Jr. Expect more running of the football with a team that is looking to protect an unproven QB in C.J. Beathard.

All in all, I can't touch the sides here given that Trevor Lawrence is out. And trusting Carolina's pass offense on the road after an inflated home performance against Green Bay's reeling defense feels like a trap. Therefore, the move for me is right back to the under at 36.5 points. The Panthers' pass defense is underrated and should be able to limit an offense led by Beathard.

Props:

Carolina is a run-funnel and they have an underrated secondary. 13 of 14 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season. The last 11? All unders. Beathard at 223.5 passing yards is a good under bet.

Carolina is also facing the 2nd-fewest targets and 4th-fewest yards to WRs this season. More reasons to fade the Jags WRs as well in the player props market.

The Panthers' defense has also been elite versus tight ends, allowing the 2nd fewest catches allowed to tight ends this season. 9 of the last 12 tight ends Carolina has faced have gone UNDER their projected receptions totals.

No team has allowed more passing yards in the last five weeks than Jacksonville. Only 3 QBs they have faced this season have NOT gone over their passing yards projection.

The Jaguars have also allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this season. D.J. Chark has gone OVER 23.5 receiving yards in four of his last 5 games. Averaging 35.5 Rec YDs per game this season in 13 games played.

My Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

Sides:

  • The underdogs have won each of the Buccaneers’ last three games.
  • The Buccaneers are 73% ATS as an underdog, while just 50% ATS as a favorite. 3-1 straight up as a favorite.
  • The Saints are 33% ATS as an underdog.
  • New Orleans is 1-2 as an underdog, their one cover coming against the 4-11 Patriots as 1.5-point road underdogs. They lost to the Detroit Lions/Los Angeles Rams as 4.5 underdogs.
  • The Saints have COVERED four games...all season.
  • The Bucs are tied with the Lions for the best record ATS at 67% in the NFC. 10-5 ATS.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 11 games against NFC opponents.

Game Total:

  • The Buccaneers are 2-5 toward the under at home (35 points scored per game)
  • Tampa Bay is also 9-6 toward the under this season overall.
  • The Bucs are 4-1 toward the over in their last 5 games, with their pass defense getting exposed by opposing offenses.
  • Six of the last seven games between the Saints and Buccaneers have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Saints' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams have each averaged 41.9 points per game this season.
  • They have also combined for a 19-11 record toward the under
  • The Buccaneers rank 5th in pass-play rate faced this season.
  • The Saints have faced the 8th-lowest pass play rate, with teams running over them in recent weeks.
  • Last four weeks: 5th in rushing yards allowed at over 100 yards per game to opposing RBs.
  • They still rank as the 5th worst run defense in explosive runs allowed at 12%
  • The Saints continue to struggle immensely in the red zone offensively, but they have improved dramatically in the last 3 weeks (86%).
  • TB's defense ranks No.1 in the red zone at home this season.

Overall:

We don't need to dive too deeply into this matchup to make the right picks here. The Saints have been one of the most overrated teams all season, while the Buccaneers have been one of the most UNDERRATED teams in the entire NFL. 2.5 points at home is not enough for Tampa Bay. They are on a 4-game winning streak and already beat the Saints 26-9 on the road earlier this season.

With the Buccaneers’ defense undoubtedly stifling Derek Carr and company in the red zone, the Saints won't score enough TDs to keep this game within a field goal score.

I feel less confident backing the total, as the TB pass defense has been so bad that the Bucs' games have been going over at a high rate. Rather just bet against Carr on the point spread, because he should be able to do some damage offensively through the air in the plus-matchup.

Props:

The Buccaneers defense is allowing the most receiving yards per game to WRs in 2023. The Bucs are also allowing the 4th-most yards and 5th-most receptions per game to tight ends.

The Buccaneers have allowed the 5th-most passing yards in the last four weeks. 4th-most yards to WRs and 3rd-most to tight ends.

Take the over on Chris Olave's 66.5 receiving yards. Gone OVER in four of his last 5 games.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 26 of 35 passes for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns, without any interceptions in Week 16. Mike Evans was the top receiver, catching 7 passes for 86 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns (8 targets), while Chris Godwin added 78 yards on 6 receptions on a team-high 11 targets.

Godwin has been on a tear the last three weeks, posting target totals of 11, 12, 11. He has 53-plus yards in all three games, which is why I love the MORE THAN on his 52.5 receiving yards number this week. The Saints are a slot funnel defense allowing more than twice the production to slot WRs than perimeter ones this season. Godwin also blew up the first times these teams played, going for 114 yards on 11 targets and 8 catches.

My Picks:

Philadelphia Eagles (-12) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sides:

  • The Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 11 road games.
  • Arizona playing on the road this season...1-7 straight up (3-5 ATS).
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games in December.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 7 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • This Philadelphia team is not what its record at 11-4 suggests. They have been the luckiest team this season, rallying from first-half deficits every week.
  • They are 3-6-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 or more points. They have also covered just 3 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense.

Game Total:

  • The Eagles average nearly 60 points per game at home: 6-1 toward the over
  • Each of the Eagles’ last five home games against NFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams are averaging over 47.5 points scored
  • The Eagles defense is horrible. The defense cannot stop anyone in the red zone. 29th in red-zone conversion rate allowed.
  • The Cardinals have the 4th-best red-zone offense
  • Each of the Cardinals' last six road games has failed to go OVER the total points line.
  • The Cardinals are 0-7-1 toward the UNDER on the road this season. They pushed last week at 43 points.
  • Arizona is averaging 330 yards on offense with Kyler Murray (league average).
  • 23 points per game over their last 2 contests against the 49ers, Bears and Steelers. The Eagles have averaged 21 points per game over the same span

Overall:

The Eagles are going to be able to run ALL over the Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed to RBs this season. But again, running the ball - like last week - is not indicative of covering massive point spreads. Too many conflicting trends going against the Eagles to back them with 12 points at home. Rather take the underdogs in a projected shootout.

Or just bet the over. I doubt we see Arizona go the full season without a game total hitting the over on the road this season. If there's any spot that will go over the projected total, it's in this game here.

Props:

We should see a pass-heavy script from Arizona against the Eagles' horrible secondary that is allowing the 3rd-most passing yards per game to QBs. Philadelphia has also been a home to overs hitting an extremely high rate. Take the over on Murray's 223.5 passing yards prop this week. 4 of the last 8 teams the Eagles have faced have gone for 300-plus passing yards. Again, why I like the over in this game.

Trey McBride was held in check last week, with 6 catches for 31 yards on 8 targets (22%). Still, he's the alpha in the passing game, so I'd bet he rebounds versus the Eagles - 27th in DVOA versus tight ends this season. I like the MORE THAN on his 61.5 receiving yards. He has 60 receiving yards in 4 of his last 6 games. The Eagles have allowed exactly 61.5 yards to opposing tight ends over the last four weeks.

Other player prop nuggets to pay attention to:

  • The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the 2nd fewest receptions to tight ends this season. One tight end they have faced since Week 6 has gone for 5 catches. Dallas Goedert went over 4.5 receptions last week…for the first time in five games played.
  • Jalen Hurts has thrown for fewer than 230.5 yards in 5 of his last 7 games.
  • The Eagles are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season.

My Picks

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (-6)

Sides:

  • The favorites have won each of the Rams’ last eight games.
  • They are 75% ATS as a favorite. 7-1 as a favorite.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last five games.
  • The Rams are now 8-5-2 ATS this season.
  • The Giants are 4-2 ATS over their last six games.

Game Total:

  • East Rutherford New Jersey is 5-10 toward the under this season
  • 34 points scored on average
  • Five of the Giants’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 42.5 points scored
  • Still, the Rams defense isn't great. Only 4x they have allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
  • Only Seattle, Arizona and Washington failed to crack 300 yards.
  • Against offenses not named the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season.
  • The Rams are 6-4 toward the under their last 10 games.
  • In the Giants last 6 games, the team is 4-2 toward the over. Point totals of 66, 46, 50 and 58 when the games have gone over.
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in 3 of their last 4 games.

Overall:

The Rams are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They dominated the Saints, who one week previously dominated this Giants team. Swapping Tommy DeVito for Tyrod Taylor works in the Giants' favor - at least offensively - which scares me slightly from backing the Rams as 6 point road favorites. We have seen these backup QBs all year long cover the spread when they are first called upon, and Taylor under center will make it tougher for the Rams to win in full blowout fashion. Taylor helped the Giants cover last week, and went 3-0 ATS in his three starts prior to his injury.

I'll avoid choosing sides and just take the over at 43.5 points.

Props:

11 of the 12 most comparable WRs to Darius Slayton have gone OVER their receptions prop when they faced the Rams' defense. LA is allowing the 7th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this season, but the 7th-fewest to slot WRs.

The Rams' defense ranks 12th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game and No. 2 in fewest receiving yards per game to RBs. 2 RBs they have faced have gone over 30 receiving yards. The Rams defense also has not allowed a RB to surpass 70 yards since their Week 10 bye week. Only 1 RB they have faced since Week 6 has gone for 65 rushing yards or more.

The Rams also play a ton of zone coverage and boast one of the worst PFF grade defending while in zone coverage this season.

Over the last 2 weeks, Sean McVay has dialed up an offense that has finished -7% in pass rate over expectation. They threw the ball on early downs on just 39% of the offensive plays (30th). This team's identity is to run the ball and they will continue to do so against the Giants - who rank 27th in run defense DVOA.

Therefore, take the under on Matthew Stafford's pass attempts set at 35.5. He has 36-plus attempts in just 2 of his last 7 games.

My Picks

Houston Texans (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The road team has won each of the last six games between the Titans and Texans.
  • Houston is 3-3 straight up as a favorite. including losses at both Atlanta, Carolina and New York (Jets) when they were small road favorites.
  • 17% ATS as a favorite.
  • The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as favorites (1-6 ATS as a favorite this season)
  • Their last 6 wins have been by 7 or fewer points.
  • Overall, Houston is 7-6 versus the spread over their last 13 games.
  • The Titans are 1-6 on the road this season.

Game Total:

  • The Texans are 3-5 toward the under at home, averaging 47 points scored
  • Six of the last seven games between the Titans and Texans at NRG Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams have averaged 42 points scored
  • The Texans have gone under in 9 of their last 13 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • The Titans are a bad team, especially when they play away from Nashville. Just 14.3 points per game scored on the road this season.
  • Hence seven of the Titans' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

C.J. Stroud is expected to make his return to the lineup this week after missing the last two weeks with a concussion. But with that comes more money for the Texans. When Stroud plays, Houston is way overvalued by the market. And the number seems like it's in no man's land, sitting at 5.5 points across most sportsbooks. If this was any team but the road Titans, fading the favored Texans would be an easy bet. But alas, Tennessee cannot be trusted on the road, where they have won one time this season in a miracle 14-point comeback victory versus the Dolphins a few weeks ago. We already have seen this Titans team lose to the Texans without Stroud 19-16 in OT back in Week 15.

Much more likely to just bet the under at 44 points, with the trends suggesting lackluster efforts from both sides. But in all honesty, this game might be a total write-off for me, as two cannon-armed rookie QBs against two horrible secondaries could put the under in harm's way very quickly - especially in a dome.

Props:

This game might be just better for betting player props.

Derrick Henry under 57.5 rushing yards – Houston is allowing the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (69). They held Henry at home to 9 yards on 16 carries two weeks ago. Also, Henry has rushed for 60-plus yards just twice in 7 road games this season.

Nico Collins over 59.5 receiving yards – Collins has at least 54 receiving yards in 6 of his 7 healthy home games played this season. He has also gone over this number in 3 straight games with Stroud under center.

My Picks

Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers (-14)

Sides:

  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the 49ers’ last eight games.
  • The Commanders have lost each of their last six games.
  • Still, Washington has covered as an underdog in 59% of their games.
  • The 49ers have covered as favorites in 57% of their games.

Game Total:

  • Each of the Commanders’ last four home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams average 49 points scored.
  • They have also combined for an 18-12 record toward the over
  • 5 of the Commanders' last 6 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The one "under" was a 48-point game that narrowly hit the under.
  • If Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under.
  • When they allow 20 points on defense - 9-2 toward the OVER.
  • What are the 49ers' odds of scoring over 19.5 points? You can't even find odds that low it's such a lock.
  • Their implied odds to score 21 points? -700. Aka an implied probability of 87.5%.
  • The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in 11 of their 15 games played this season.

Overall:

The 49ers offense is a Death Star, and there's no doubt they will bounce back offensively against the worst defense in the NFL. Coming off a prime-time embarrassing loss, they might not ever stop scoring points. Still, I am a firm believer in the process behind backing double-digit home dogs. Jacoby Brissett being under center makes it big difference in my estimation for a backdoor cover. Brissett has rallied the Commanders in back-to-back weeks, so I think he can keep things interesting from a point-spread perspective. Still, my best bet is just on the "over" in this game.

The 49ers will score 30-plus points easily, and I think the Commanders can post at least 20 with Brissett taking the reins. The 49ers defense has allowed an average of 30-plus points in back-to-back games.

Props:

This George Kittle receptions prop at 3.5 has been EZ money this season. We bet it last week on flying colors. Rinse and repeat with it again listed a plus odds. Kittle has 3.5 or more receptions in just three games played this season alongside a healthy Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. And better yet, he has a prop on FanDuel listed at 4.5 receptions…

The Commanders’ defense is bad against everything… except for facing tight ends. 8th-fewest receptions allowed to tight ends at just 4.3 per game.

The 49ers have allowed the 2nd-most completions this season to QBs. The last 4 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. 8 of 10 have hit the over on their completions prop. Take the over on Jacoby Brissett’s 23.5 completions. In the last two games playing in relief, Brissett has completed 18 of 23 pass attempts for 224 yards (9.7 yards per attempt) and a 78% completion rate. 3 TDs and 0 INTs.

My Picks

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sides:

  • In each of the Seahawks’ last five games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The favorites have won 12 of the Seahawks’ last 13 games.
  • Seattle is 6-1 straight up as a favorite. 57% ATS as a favorite.
  • The Steelers are 5-4 as an underdog this season.
  • Usually, Pittsburgh takes care of bad teams. That has not been the case in recent weeks, and the Colts boasted a 7-6 record entering Week 15.
  • They covered against the Bengals, as Jake Browning turned back into a pumpkin.
  • The Seahawks are not a bad team, with an 8-7 record.
  • They are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played (3-3 over the last six games)
  • Mason Rudolph is 6-4-1 as a starter. 7-3 ATS.

Game Total:

  • Seattle is averaging 45 points per game at home, 4-3 toward the OVER.
  • But 7 of the Seahawks' last 9 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Steelers’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 41 points scored
  • The Steelers boast the league's 5th-best red zone defense.
  • Seattle has a bottom-five red-zone offense. The Steelers’ offense ranks 6th-worst in the red zone.

Overall:

Lean toward the under, and the Seahawks with the points at home. Still, I much prefer just betting the under, as this screams like a game that Seattle wins outright as a favorite, but the Steelers - as they seemingly always do - cover as an underdog. Especially at the 4.5-point number, in a game that could easily be a marginal field goal victory, like it was last week for Seattle. Both red-zone offenses will struggle to convert yards into points.

Props:

The Seahawks’ defense has allowed 68-plus rushing yards to the last 6 RBs they have faced this season.

Seattle ranks 25th in DVOA versus tight ends, allowing 55.4 receiving yards per game to the position this season.

For the Seattle offense...the Steelers are horrible versus slot WRs. 10 of the last 11 most comparable WRs to Jaxon Smith-Njigba have gone OVER their projected receiving yards against the Steelers this season.

George Pickens was a standout receiver with 4 catches for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 targets (22% target share) in Week 16. Monster performance on Christmas Eve Eve. The vast majority came on two big plays, one downfield and one YAC. Therefore, I am opting to shoot for the UNDER on Picken's receiving yards in Week 17 playing at Seattle. The Seahawks are a tougher defense versus perimeter WRs ranking top-10 in fewest fantasy points allowed versus 4th-most against slot WRs. Last 2 weeks, Seattle has also limited opposing WRs to just 87.5 yards total (4th-fewest). A.J. Brown got just 56 yards against them. Pickens is a boom-or-bust WR who will struggle more on the road this week.

My Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have won 12 of their last 13 games following a loss.
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Chiefs' last 8 games.
  • The Chiefs have been overrated ATS at home, going 0-3 ATS in their last three home games (0-3 straight up).
  • KC is 43% ATS as the favorite this season.
  • CIN is 40% ATS as an underdog this season.

Game Total:

  • The Chiefs games are averaging fewer than 40 points scored at home this season.
  • 6-1 toward the under.
  • Six of the Chiefs' last 8 games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 8 of the Chiefs' last 11 games overall have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Bengals’ last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams average 42 points scored
  • Six of the Bengals' last 7 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 7 of their last 10 games have hit the over. Their last 8 of 9 games have all surpassed 41.5 points. They have been riding high, but this is where the over-train regression hits versus another elite defense.

Overall:

Bengals No. 2 QB Jake Browning is following in the footsteps of a lot of plucky backup QBs we have seen this season. They start hot for a couple of games without expectations when facing favorable defensive matchups. But as more tape is revealed, defensive coordinators devise ways to stop these backup QBs from sustaining success. Browning pulled the rabbit out of his hat two weeks ago, orchestrating a comeback to win in OT. They scored 21 points in the 4th quarter. But that game shouldn't have been close. And they didn't cover the 3.5-point spread. They shouldn't have won against a stronger Minnesota defense.

We faded the Bengals last week versus the Steelers, and they laid an egg versus the Steelers. Up against another tough defense - on the road vs KC no less - will be tough for Browning to overcome. He has struggled against defenses not named the Colts/Jaguars. Without Ja'Marr Chase for another week, the Bengals offense will struggle.

And this is a great bounce-back spot for the Chiefs’ offensive to finally put points up with projected high yardage totals. Their offense despite all the ups-and-downs is 5th in the third-down conversion rate. The Bengals have the 5th-worst 3rd-down defense. Also, last in yards per attempt faced (7.7).

The Bengals red-zone defense has also been much worse on the road. The 6th-highest scoring rate allowed.

The biggest mismatch is that the Bengals’ defense cannot stop the run. But a run-heavy game script projects for a lower-scoring affair, especially if it's the plodding Clyde Edwards-Helaire spearheading the rushing attack.

KC's track record at home just isn't there to back them as 6.5 point favorites - 43% ATS as a favorite this season - even if they win outright. Rather take the under at 44 points, and ride the streak of the Chiefs’ suffocating defense pushing games UNDER the projected totals.

Props:

The Bengals have allowed the most receptions per game to tight ends (6.8) this season.

9/11 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected passing yards total this season. Their defense is their strongest unit.

My Picks:

Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers 

Sides:

  • LAC has lost the last 10 games as +7-point dogs.
  • 1-6 ATS as underdogs over their last seven games played.
  • The Chargers have also failed to cover the spread in five of their last 7 games.
  • 1-6 straight up as underdogs.
  • The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 11 games as favorites against AFC West opponents.
  • The Broncos have won nine of their last 10 home games against the Chargers.
  • The Broncos have won four of their last five home games. 3-2 ATS
  • The Broncos have scored first in each of their last five home games.

Total:

  • The Chargers showed the last 2 weeks that they won't stop "trying" to score points. 2-0 toward the over in their last two games.
  • Still, 10 of the last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line for Los Angeles
  • Teams average 44 points scored in Denver this season. 4-4 O/U record.
  • Both teams enter this game coming off two straight overs.
  • 8 of the Broncos' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Broncos have totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in 7 of their last 11 games played.
  • At home in their last 5 games:  2-2-1 toward the under.

Overall

This is a classic dead cat bounce for a team to rally after the Broncos decided to "fire" Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback.

Teams are 1-2 straight up and 3-0 ATS after firing their head coach this season (Raiders, Panthers, Chargers). In terms of big coordinators being fired, the teams are also 2-0 ATS after firings (Bills, Steelers).

Jarrett Stidham will draw the start, and there's an argument to be made that he better fits the offensive system that Sean Payton wants to deploy. Stidham was highly sought after in free agency by the Broncos signing a two-year deal worth $10 million this offseason. Like last season, he has been named the starter for the final two games.

In his first start last season, he led the Raiders to a 34-37 OT home loss against the 49ers as 9.5-point home underdogs. Finished 1-1 ATS in his two starts.

We have seen backup QBs all year long perform extremely well ATS with the market incorrectly valuing their impact on the first few games. Zero expectations have made it easy for these unproven QBs to be profitable to bet on. I'll continue to ride that trend for the Broncos, who could see an offensive burst with Stidham against one of the league's worst defenses. They play better at home anyway, furthering backing Denver as the team to be in this spot.

The Broncos held the Chargers to just 7 points the first time these teams faced off, while their offense scored 24 points. The teams also combined for 12 punts. Think you know where my lean is here.

Broncos -3.5 and under 36.5 points. Although the under doesn't feel like there's much value left with such a suppressed number.

Props:

Every RB not named James Cook that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER their receptions prop and 9 the last 11 have gone over their receiving yards prop. Javonte Williams has 3-plus catches in 9 of his 13 games played this season, going over in 7 of his last 9 games.

Great matchup for Gerald Everett this week against the Broncos' No. 32-ranked defense versus tight ends. Take the over on his 40.5 receiving yards. Been OVER this 39 yards in five straight games. 20 targets with Easton Stick over the last 3 weeks.

Denver has allowed the most rushing yards per to RBs this season. 10 of the last 13 RBs they have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals. Still, Austin Ekeler has been too fringy to trust in this Chargers’ anemic rushing attack. Would avoid his props altogether.

My Picks:

Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The underdogs have won 5 of the Packers' last six games.
  • GB as an underdog is 60% ATS. 20% ATS as a favorite.
  • Minnesota is 42% ATS as a favorite. 3-3 overall.
  • The Packers are also 6-2 when they allow fewer than 23 points on defense. 5-3 ATS.
  • They have allowed 24-plus points in three straight games.
  • Green Bay is 2-5 ATS when they allow more than 23 points.
  • The Vikings have scored 23 points in Nick Mullens' two starts.
  • The Packers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 road games against teams that held a losing record.
  • GB is 3-5 on the road this season. 1-6 ATS over their last 7 road games.

Game Total:

  • Teams average 42.5 points in Minnesota this season, 2-5 toward the over this season.
  • Each of the Packers’ last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Packers' last 7 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • On a streak of five straight overs because of how bad the Packers’ defense has been.
  • The Vikings have gone over in two straight games with Nick Mullens as the starting QB.
  • These teams averaged 42.5 points combined this season

Overall:

The Packers are now 7-8 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) Rams (led by Brett Rypien), Chargers team coached by Brandon Staley, the Lions, the Chiefs and the Panthers.

I'll admit that I was swayed by some of their most recent wins. And they have mostly taken care of business against vastly inferior teams. But back-to-back eggs versus the Giants/Buccaneers leave you scratching your head. They also didn't cover against the lowly Panthers with another poor defensive showing.

The Packers' average scoring margin is +0.1 (14th). They are about as average as they come. Minnesota's average scoring margin is +1.0 (13th) despite all the different QBs they have played this season.

Minnesota has consistently met and exceeded expectations of the market while playing backup QBs this season. They also play every opponent extremely close every single week. All but two of their 15 games played this season decided by 8 points or less.

We know this game will be close at least with two completely average teams facing off.

Simply put, the Vikings find ways to win, cover and keep games within striking distance.  And with WR Justin Jefferson back in full form versus a defense that is falling apart, I like backing the unproven rookie QB Jaren Hall, with the Vikings’ top-tier defense that has been tough all year long.

There's a reason they are still favorites in this spot, after all, playing at home. They beat Green Bay handily 24-10 in Green Bay back in Week 8. They posted a +7% pass rate over expectation in that contest. On 9 offensive drives, the Vikings punted twice. 3 TD drives, two missed field goals, and a fumble. Needless to say, Kevin O' Connell's moved the ball at will without Justin Jefferson. So even without T.J. Hockenson and Hall making his second NFL start, I think Minnesota's offense has no problems against Green Bay's defense that ranks third-worst in fantasy points allowed to QBs the last four weeks.

Note that Hall was playing well in his first start - 5 passes for 78 yards on 6 attempts - before he got knocked out with an injury versus the Falcons.

Props:

The Packers are the No. 1 run-funnel defense in the league. The last six of 7 RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals. Over on Ty Chandler’s 61.5 rushing yards prop.

More than half of the QBs the Vikings have faced have finished under their passing yardage props over the last 12 games. Jordan Love has gone UNDER 244.5 passing yards in 2 of his last 3 games, and was held to just 229 yards when the played Minnesota earlier this season.

I LOVE targeting the tough rushing matchup that the Vikings’ defense presents. Minnesota has allowed just TWO running backs to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. Just three RBs they have faced this season have gone for more than 55 yards. Under on Aaron Jones’ 51.5 rushing yards prop this week. He was held to just 29 rushing yards the last time these teams played earlier this season.

My Picks:

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