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NFL Sunday Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Week 18 (2023)

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Let’s dive into NFL matchups for Week 18. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 18 Sunday football.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer: Week 18

Before we leap into this week’s games, let’s rewind to the highlights and lowlights of Week 17’s matchups, while recapping our entire 2023 NFL betting season from Weeks 1-17.

Week 17

  • Spread: 5-5 (50%)
  • Totals: 6-6 (50%)
  • Player Props: 21-17 (55%)

Overall:

2023 season

  • Spread: 92-103 (47%)
  • Totals: 128-92 (58%)
  • Player Props: 293-262 (53%)

Overall: (52%)

As always, at the top, I’ll feature my top bets, categorized into underdogs, favorites, and Over/Unders. This quick-hitting guide is your shortcut to accessing my best plays.

Keep an eye out for my favorite player props, released in a separate article every Saturday. Let’s dive into the Sunday frenzy of NFL Week 18!

Top Favorites:

  • Bills -2.5
  • Raiders -3

Top Underdogs:

  • Falcons ML/+3 
  • Bears ML
  • Giants +4.5

Top Totals:

  • NO/ATL under 42.5
  • CIN/CLE over 37
  • MIA/BUF under 48.5
  • DET/MIN over 46
  • ARI/SEA over 47.5
  • CHI/GB over 45
  • NYG/PHI over 42
  • LV/DEN under 37
  • WAS/DAL under 46.5

New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sides:

  • The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between NFC South teams.
  • The Saints have COVERED five games…all season. They are 29% ATS as a favorite. 6-6 overall.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents.

Game Total:

  • The Saints are 2-5 toward the over at home, averaging 41 points per game.
  • Each of the Saints’ last 10 games against NFC South opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 40 points per game.
  • 17 of the Saints’ last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They have also combined for an 11-21 O/U record.
  • Falcons are the third-lowest scoring offense on the road this season.
  • 9 of the Falcons’ last 10 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams have combined for 3 overs in their last 10 games played.
  • Atlanta has the No. 3 red-zone defense and ranks 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate faced.
  • The Saints have just been average in the red zone/third down.

Overall:

You can’t make me pick a side in this NFC South battle that probably won’t matter if the Buccaneers just take care of business versus the Panthers. If the Falcons were at home, I’d likely side with them but their home/road splits are just so bad that I cannot back them with a chance that Desmond Ridder starts. The Falcons are 5-2 at home versus 2-6 on the road.

If forced, I’d just opt for Falcons +3 or just bet the ML at plus odds in a game where I’d rather just bet the game under sitting at 42.5 points. The number is just frankly too high based on the sample sizes from both these teams.

Again, both teams are bad so betting the under seems like the optimal play. And given that both teams are bad – as is every team in the NFC South – you must go with the underdog. The underdogs have won eight of the Falcons’ last 11 games.

Props:

The Saints are a slot funnel defense allowing more than twice the production to slot WRs than perimeter ones this season. Kyle Pitts operates as the Falcons’ primary slot receiver, running 71% of his routes from inside last week.

I think he bounces back after a one-catch effort on 5 targets last week. Before last week, Pitts had gone over his receiving yards total in four straight games.

My Picks:

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)

Sides:

  • The Titans have lost each of their last eight games against AFC South opponents.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 road games.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
  • Jacksonville is 70% ATS as a favorite this season, while just 33% as an underdog.
  • The Titans are 1-6 on the road this season, but 4-4 at home.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in five of their last 7 games at Nissan Stadium.

Game Total:

  • The Titans are 3-4 toward the O/U at home this season averaging 41.5 points per game.
  • Each of the Jaguars’ last three games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 40.5 points per game.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in five of their last seven games (4 games going over that matched the threshold).

Overall:

This is a “strength on strength” matchup, with both teams playing boasting strong home/road splits. Ryan Tannehill will start at QB for the Titans, given the injury to Will Levis. Trevor Lawrence is a game-time decision after being listed as day-to-day, as is WR Christian Kirk. When these teams met back in Week 11 it was no contest with the Jaguars winning 34-14. Still, playing the Titans in their final home game – likely the last game for Derrick Henry as a Titan – makes me believe this game will play tighter than the previous matchup.

The Jaguars pass defense is still horrible – despite the Panthers’ inept passing game last week – so the Titans can find ways to move the ball offensively playing at home. Only 4 QBs they have faced this season have NOT gone over their passing yards projection. One of those QBs was Levis, but it was because he missed several downfield throws.

Still, like the under at 42 points with both teams barely cresting over this points threshold this season.

Props:

The Jaguars have also allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this season. I fully expect DeAndre Hopkins to have a heavy-involved and productive game.

Hopkins caught all 7 of his targets for 72 yards with a 28% target share last week.

And Hopkins is 7 catches, 40 yards and 2 TDs away from an extra $750K in his contract. Expect him to get FED in an uber-friendly matchup versus the Jaguars’ horrible secondary. Second-most fantasy points allowed to perimeter WRs this season.

He went 4 for 59 yards on 5 targets the last time he faced the Jaguars this season.

But pound the under on Henry’s Week 18 rushing props, even at home. He was held to 38 yards the last time he faced the Jaguars this season.

Tyjae Spears was second with 6 targets (24%), with the Titans trailing nearly the entire game against the Texans in Week 17. Chig Okonkwo saw 4 targets, playing 75% of the snaps. Ran a route on 81% of the dropbacks. Jacksonville ranks dead last in yards per target versus tight ends this season.

Chris Moore led the team with a 41% air yards share as the WR3 in snaps/routes.

My Picks:

Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sides:

  • The Lions have won the first half in 13 of their last 14 games as favorites.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last six games against the Vikings.
  • The favorites have won 11 of the last 12 games between the Vikings and Lions.
  • The Vikings are 4-6 overall as underdogs. 60% ATS.
  • The Lions are 10-3 as favorites. 69% ATS.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
  • The Detroit Lions are 6-4 ATS over their last 10 games with three of the five latest covers by extremely slim margins.

Game Total:

  • Ford Field is 5-2 toward the over, averaging 52.4 points per game.
  • Each of the last four games between the Vikings and Lions has gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams average 45.7 points per game.
  • The Vikings have scored 23 points in Nick Mullens’ two starts.
  • The Vikings have gone over in three straight games with Mullens playing the majority of snaps at QB. Mullens will start in Week 18.
  • Six of the Lions’ last 8 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • In the Lions’ last 16 home games, the average total has been 55.4 points. 88% of the games have scored at least 51 points.

Overall:

All but three of the Vikings’ 16 games played this season have been decided by 8 points or less. But with their latest combination of QBs, their last two losses have been their worst by double-digit scores.

Minnesota’s on its final breath for a postseason birth with extremely longshot odds of making it. And although the theme with the Vikings usually finding ways to win, cover and keep games within striking distance, the gas seems to be out with this team after so much turmoil throughout the 2023 season.

They have dropped 5 in a row ATS, while the Lions are 11-5 ATS on the season. Coming off a game where the Lions seemingly were robbed of victory by the refs (although they were not exactly innocent in their efforts to confuse the Cowboys’ defense) they have reasons other than the No. 2 seed (a long shot unless both DAL/PHI both lose) to close the regular season on a high note after a sour defeat in Week 17.

Dan Campbell says he is going to play his starters, and that’s reflected in the 3.5-point line. I’m surprised it’s not larger given the directions these teams are headed in.

Give me the Lions -3.5 and take the game to go over at Ford Field – the Coors Field of the NFL.

Props:

More than half of the QBs the Vikings have faced have finished under their passing yardage props over the last 13 games. Jared Goff has thrown for less than 275 yards in four of his last five games and in three straight road contests. However, the current line leans more toward the over for Goff with it suppressed to just 237.5 passing yards – a mark he has hit in three straight games. Goff has hit this number in 5/7 home games. He has at least 236 passing yards in all his home games played this season.

The Lions have allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last four weeks (300/game).

They rank LAST in yards to WRs in their last four games allowing 220.5 yards per game to opposing WRs. They are also the 2nd-worst defense against slot WRs. K.J. Osborn has led the team in slot routes the last two weeks followed by Justin Jefferson.

The Lions’ defense is stout versus the run. They have not allowed RB to surpass 51 yards against them since Week 10. Fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs this season (58.4). Ty Chandler was held to just 17 yards when they played back in Week 16.

My Picks:

New England Patriots (-1.5) vs. New York Jets

Sides:

  • The Patriots have won each of their last 15 games against the Jets.
  • The Patriots have scored first in each of their last 10 home games against the Jets.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The New England Patriots have the worst overall record in the AFC at 4-12.
  • 6-10 ATS this season (38%). Woof.
  • The Jets are 5-10-1 ATS. Woof.
  • The Patriots are 25% ATS as a favorite, 1-3 overall.
  • The Jets are 39% ATS as an underdog, 4-9 overall.
  • Zach Wilson is still in the concussion protocol and will not play in this game.
  • Trevor Siemian will start.
  • The favorites have won the first half in 15 of the Jets’ last 16 games.

Game Total:

  • Patriots are 3-4 toward the O/U at home this season. 37.3 points per game.
  • Each of the Patriots’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Jets’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 8 of the Jets’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 37 points per game.
  • These teams rank 6th and 7th respectively in red zone defense.

 Overall:

The Jets are playing for “pride” and to stop a 15-game losing streak to the Patriots, in potentially Bill Belichick’s last game as the head coach in New England.

The Patriots have been one of the worst teams against the spread this season. But under Bailey Zappe they are 3-2 ATS and 2-3 straight up. And the two games they failed to cover were within 3 points of the final number. Simply put, they have played teams very close with Zappe despite his willingness to create turnovers. In fact, over the last 8 games New England has played, 7 of the final scores have been decided by 6 or fewer points. They lost to KC at home by 10 points.

The best bet here should be on the under on the full game total. The Patriots defense has allowed 300-plus yards once since Week 9. The Patriots have uncharacteristically hit four straight overs. Regression is coming as along with a wintry mix in Foxborough. However, with the total set at 29.5, I see no value in the under as a best bet. A few turnovers by these bad QBs create scoring opportunities in a hurry.

So, I can’t touch the total. And from a side’s perspective, I do think the trends are pointing heavily in the Patriots’ favor. But with them playing for a chance at the No. 2 overall draft pick by losing – whereas the Jets probably want to win more looking to end a horrible 2023 on a high note – I cannot in good faith take the Patriots to win should Belichick throw the game late under Robert Kraft’s instruction.

I also don’t think it’s crazy if the Jets just feed Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in the passing game that they can do enough to come up away with a win. Skip the spread altogether and just take the Jets on the ML for the best bang for your buck. The Patriots haven’t covered at home in three straight home games. They have not won as a home favorite (0-2) all season.

Props:

Of the last 10 QBs to face the Jets, 6 have gone UNDER their projected passing yards.

The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.25 yards per carry to opposing RBs. The Patriots haven’t allowed an RB to hit 55 rushing yards since Week 10. In the last five games, they have allowed an average of fewer than 45 rushing yards to RBs. However, the Patriots have not been as great at stopping RBs in the passing game, allowing the 11th-most receiving yards to RBs this season.

My Picks:

 Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

Sides:

  • The Panthers have lost the first half in each of their last seven games.
  • In each of the Panthers’ last seven games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Panthers have lost 10 of their last 11 games against NFC opponents.
  • They are the worst team overall and ATS this season.
  • With offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling the plays in Carolina, the Panthers are a surprising 4-3 ATS. 2-1 ATS over their last three games (all at home)
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
  • The underdogs have won each of the Buccaneers’ last four games.
  • The Buccaneers are 73% ATS as an underdog, while 40% ATS as a favorite. 3-2 straight up as a favorite.

Game Total:

  • The Panthers are 6-1 toward the under this season at home. 37.3 points per game.
  • Six of the Panthers’ last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 41 points per game. Combined 11-21 toward the under.
  • The Panthers have scored more than 23 points twice with Bryce Young at QB.
  • Tampa Bay is also 10-6 toward the under this season overall.
  • The Bucs are 4-2 toward the over in their last 6 games.
  • When these teams first met, both teams punted 8 times.

Overall:

Last week many bettors were IN on the Buccaneers, and they laid an egg. Still, I think this is an obvious bounce-back spot for them against a Carolina Panthers team that is ready to get into the 2024 offseason. The Bucs have been extremely profitable ATS all season while Carolina has been the team to bet against all year long.

And do not be fooled by the Panthers’ 3-point cover of the Buccaneers back at the top of December. It was right after the team fired Frank Reich. Classic dead cat bounce spot.

Props:

The Panthers defense can’t stop the run. Rachaad White lead the rushing effort with 42 yards on 11 carries in Week 17. He did lose a fumble but didn’t get punished. He still saw the majority of touches and should bounce back in a favorable matchup this week versus Carolina. Their defense has allowed over 130 rushing yards to RBs in the last two weeks. The last time White played Carolina, he rushed for 84 yards on the ground.

Mike Evans went for a whopping 162 yards when he last played the Panthers and has 70-plus yards in four of his last 6 games played. I like the over at 62.5 receiving yards in a must-win game for the Buccaneers to win the NFC South.

Expect Baker Mayfield to go all out with him having heavy statistical incentives in his contract. Therefore, I am going to take go over on his passing yards props this week. He has gone over 232.5 passing yards in three straight games. Just be sure his health checks out as he is dealing with a rib injury.

The Buccaneers defense is allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards per game to WRs in 2023. The Bucs are also allowing the most yards and 3rd-most receptions per game to tight ends.

My Picks:

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Browns have won each of their last four games.
  • In four of the Browns’ last five games, the first score has been a Browns Touchdown.
  • The Browns are 42% ATS as an underdog. 2-4 overall.

Game Total:

  • The Bengals are 4-4 toward the total at home this season for 42.5 points per game.
  • Seven of the Bengals’ last 8 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Browns’ last eight road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams average 44.5 points per game.
  • 8 of their last 11 games have hit the over. Their last 9 of 10 games have all surpassed 41.5 points. They have been riding high and this is where you take advantage of an egregiously low points total.

Overall:

The Browns are going to rest their starters with them locked into the No. 5 seed. Jeff Driskel – not P.J. Walker – will draw the start. As a result – although this seemingly was allowing the most logical outcome – the lines jumped from Bengals -5.5 to Bengals -7.

But the total is still very low at 37 points. Two words. Over. Bengals games have been skyrocketing in points scored. And the Browns defense has been a sieve on the road this season. Cincy has talked about wanting to finish the season right even after they are no longer in consideration for the postseason. Ja’Marr Chase is going to play. Avoid the sides, and just back the Bengals offense to score points and drive this game over the projected total.

With Chase healthy, the Bengals have scored 27-plus points in 3 of their last four games. The Browns have allowed at LEAST 22 points on defense in all 7 of their road games played this season.

Props:

No player props are available yet, but be aggressive attacking the overs on Bengals players against the Browns’ second-string defense.

My Picks:

  • Over 37
  • Bengals over 22.5 points

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3)

Sides:

  • The Cardinals have lost 17 of their last 20 games at State Farm Stadium.
  • The Cardinals have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against NFC West opponents.
  • The Cardinals have lost the first half in nine of their last 10 games.
  • Seattle is 6-2 as a favorite. 62.5% ATS.
  • In each of the Seahawks’ last six games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The favorites have won 12 of the Seahawks’ last 14 games.
  • Seattle is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games played (3-4 over the last 7 games)
  • The Seahawks have lost each of their last five of their last 6 road games.

Game Total:

  • Arizona is a perfect 7-0 toward the over at home this season. An average game is 55 points scored.
  • The Cardinals have the 2nd-best red-zone offense in the NFL.
  • Arizona is averaging over 330 yards on offense with Kyler Murray (above league average).
  • 26 points per game over their last 4 contests against the 49ers, Bears, Steelers and Eagles.
  • The teams average 46 points scored.
  • Six of the Seahawks’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line

Overall:

I went into this game thinking this would be an easy spot for the Seahawks to take care of business for a chance to get into the postseason with a win and a Packers’ loss. But considering how bad they have been on the road, their reeling defense, and the Cardinals’ offense playing well, this might be a spot to fade a “motivated” Seahawks team on the road.

Likely more of a shy-away spot in an FG game, and I’d rather just bet the over. Arizona is the home for ALL the overs and there’s no better spot to go for points with two defenses that can’t stop anything from duking it out.

Seattle is overdue for a balancing act with their O/U splits heavily skewed toward the under on the road and the over at home. Playing the Cardinals on the road is the gift that keeps on giving to point totals.

Props:

The Seattle running game was effective in Week 17, with Kenneth Walker III leading the way with 53 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries with 2 red-zone carries. Zach Charbonnet only had 2 carries. I like the Seahawks’ chances to score points versus the Cardinals, especially when it comes to them riding their star RB, Kenneth Walker – presuming health in a must-win game. His rushing prop is too low at 62.5 rushing yards this week. Arizona is horrible versus the run. Most rushing yards allowed this season to opposing RBs. They have allowed at least 61 yards to the last 7 RBs they have faced this season.

The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the 2nd fewest receptions to tight ends this season. They have also faced the 3rd-fewest targets to WRs. Over the last four weeks, Arizona is also allowing the 6th-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs.

The Seahawks defense has allowed 68-plus rushing yards to the last 8 RBs they have faced this season.

My Picks:

Green Bay Packers (-3) vs. Chicago Bears

Sides:

  • The Packers have won each of their last nine games against the Bears.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in each of their last nine games against the Bears.
  • In each of the Bears’ last four games, the first score has been a Bears Touchdown.
  • GB is 33% ATS as a favorite this season (3-3 overall).
  • The Underdogs have won 6 of the Packers’ last seven games.
  • The Packers are also 7-2 when they allow fewer than 23 points on defense. 6-3 ATS.
  • The Bears have covered back-to-back games.
  • 5-0-1 ATS in Justin Fields’ last 6 starts. Against all but one team with a winning record. 4-2 straight up.
  • Since the Bears’ defense started playing halfway decent, Fields has been able to orchestrate more winning performances straight up and ATS. Winners of 4 of their last 5 games.
  • When Chicago has established an effective ground game – as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Carolina, Detroit, Arizona and Atlanta– their offense has been effective, and they have played games tight.
  • 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 games.

Game Total:

  • The Packers are 3-4 toward the over at home this season averaging 41.3 points per game.
  • Each of the Packers’ last six games has gone OVER the total points line. Their defense has been horrible.
  • These teams average 44.5 points per game.
  • GB has allowed 24-plus points in three of their last four games.
  • Green Bay is 2-5 ATS when they allow more than 23 points.
  • The Bears have scored 27 points or more in 3 of their last four games. The only team they didn’t score on was the Browns.
  • Six of the Bears’ last 9 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 3-1-1 toward the under the last 5 weeks.

Overall:

Just like last season, the Packers have everything to play for in Week 18 against a division rival with nothing to play for from a playoff appearance perspective. But I still expect DA Bears to throw everything at GB to play spoiler, especially with Justin Fields’ future in Chicago up in the air. It’s in their best interest to leave the season on a high note with their polarizing quarterback. Either to keep him or trade him for the largest return.

Ergo, I love the Bears in this spot. The Packers are not strong bets as favorites and underdogs in Packers games have been winning outright. When GB’s defense struggles, they lose. The Bears have shown enough on offense – specifically with their running game – to expose GB’s defense. And when they run the ball effectively they cover the spread.

Given the Bears’ defense tends to play worse on the road – I am also leaning toward the over (a line that has jumped from 43.5 to 45.5). The Bears’ fierce run defense will shift the Packers to more passing and likely more points on the board. Especially with notable Packers WRs potentially returning healthy between Christian Watson and Jayden Reed.

Props:

The Packers are the No. 1 run-funnel defense in the league. The last six of 8 RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

Jordan Love has gone UNDER 247.5 passing yards in 2 of his last 4 games, while 9 of the last 14 QBs facing the Bears have gone UNDER their yardage totals, including 7 of the last 10 (70%).

Other than the Lions’ RBs and Bijan Robinson, no RB has rushed for 60 yards versus the Bears’ defense since Week 4.

Leaning heavily toward the under on Aaron Jones’ 64.5 rushing yards prop in Week 18. Held to just 41 rushing yards back in Week 1 versus the Bears defense.

My Picks:

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Sides:

  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have won each of their last five games against the Giants.
  • Eagles are 54% ATS as a favorite, Giants 50% ATS as an underdog.
  • The Giants are 5-2 ATS over their last 7 games.
  • The Eagles are 3-7-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 or more points. They have also covered just 3 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense.

Game Total:

  • Ten of the Eagles’ last 11 games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • MetLife Stadium is 6-10 toward the over this season averaging 35 points per game.
  • These teams average 46 points per game.
  • Five of the Giants’ last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • In the Giants last 7 games, the team is 5-2 toward the over. Point totals of 51, 66, 46, 50 and 58 when the games have gone over.
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in 4 of their last 5 games.

Overall:

Swapping Tommy DeVito for Tyrod Taylor has worked in the Giants’ favor – at least offensively – which terrifies me from backing the Eagles as 4.5-point road favorites. Big Blue has been hot against the number and pushing games to go OVER the projected total. The last two home games have gone over after a streak of 5 straight home unders.

Taylor helped the Giants cover the last 2 weeks and went 3-0 ATS in his three starts before his injury. Take Big Blue to cover against an unraveling Eagles team and take the over at 42 points.

This Philadelphia team is not what its record at 11-5 suggests. They have been the luckiest team this season, rallying from first-half deficits every week. And it’s finally caught up with them during this latest cold spell.

Props:

4 of the last 9 teams the Eagles have faced have gone for 300-plus passing yards. Again, why I like the over in this game. We should see a pass-heavy script from the Giants against the Eagles’ horrible secondary that is allowing the 5th-most passing yards per game to QBs.

Jalen Hurts has thrown for fewer than 230.5 yards in 6 of his last 8 games.

The Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season. Giants slot WR, Wan’Dale Robinson, has been Tyrod Taylor’s favorite target this season. Robinson led last week with the most targets (9, 23% target share) going 6 for 55 followed by Darren Waller (6) and Saquon Barkley (6).

My Picks:

  • Over 42
  • Giants +4.5

San Francisco 49ers (-4) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sides:

  • The 49ers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Rams.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Rams are now 8-6-2 ATS this season.
  • The Rams are 1-6 as underdogs overall. 43% ATS.
  • The favorites have won each of the Rams’ last nine games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the 49ers’ last nine games.
  • The 49ers have covered as favorites in 59% of their games. 12-4 overall.

Game Total:

  • The 49ers are 4-3 toward the over at home this season, averaging 47 points per game.
  • Five of the Rams’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Teams average 46 points per game.
  • Still, the Rams defense isn’t great. Only 4x they have allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
  • Only Seattle, Arizona and Washington failed to crack 300 yards.
  • Against offenses not named the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season.
  • The Rams are 6-5 toward the under their last 11 games.
  • The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in 12 of their 16 games played this season.

Overall:

Understand if you want to completely scratch this game of your betting card this week. It’s going to be Sam Darnold against Carson Wentz, with more backups playing on both sides based on neither team having anything to play for in the NFC playoff seedings. Still, I can’t help but feel like backing the 49ers as favorites even with Darnold under center. They have been great as a favorite this season, and Darnold will undoubtedly follow in the footsteps of every 49ers QB with an uber-efficient passing game. The Rams have awful ATS when they have been underdogs.

And although the trends lean toward the under, I like the over with it at such a low number. I don’t think either playcaller wants to score a lackluster amount of points against a division rival.

Props:

It remains to be seen if the Rams will play any of their starters after they announced that Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams will rest. The one guy they could theoretically play is rookie WR Puka Nacua, with him knocking on the door of several rookie WR records. He needs 4 catches for the receptions record and 29 yards to break the rookie receiving yards record, held by Houston Oilers’ Bill Groman at 1,473 receiving yards. Pounce on his props when they get dropped.

My Picks:

  • 49ers -4
  • Over 41

 Las Vegas Raiders (-3) vs. Denver Broncos

Sides:

  • The Raiders have won each of their last seven games against the Broncos.
  • The Raiders have scored first in each of their last seven home games against the Broncos.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against the Broncos.
  • The Raiders are 7-1-1 ATS over their last 9 games.
  • LV is 67% ATS as a favorite. 4-2 overall.
  • Denver is 43% ATS as an underdog. 3-4 overall.

Game Total:

  • The Raiders are 2-6 toward the over at home this season, averaging 38.5 points scored.
  • Eleven of the last 14 games between the Broncos and Raiders have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Teams average 42 points per game.
  • The Raiders defense ranks 23rd on third downs and 25th in the red zone.
  • Six of the Raiders’ last 9 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Las Vegas’ defense has also been vastly underrated: 11th in total DVOA and 8th versus the pass in DVOA. Only one QB they have faced has thrown for 300-plus yards this season.
  • 9 of the Broncos’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Broncos have totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in 7 of their last 12 games played.

Overall:

Against one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week, Jarrett Stidham led the Broncos to score 16 points. Their offense was held to just one FG in the second half, and their lone TD drive was fueled by a 54-yard catch and run score by Lil ’Jordan Humphrey. This Broncos offense has issues that go far beyond Russell Wilson. In a tougher matchup versus the Raiders’ top-10 defense, I am looking firmly at fading Denver on the road and betting on the under with confidence.

The Raiders have been much better at home this season both offensively and defensively. Denver has been the inverse.

Props:

Denver has allowed the most rushing yards per to RBs this season. 11 of the last 14 RBs they have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

Jakobi Meyers has gone under 4.5 receptions and 39.5 receiving yards in six of Aidan O’Connell’s 10 starts this season. He’s hit the over in his last 4 of 6 games, but the larger sample size leans toward the under on Meyers. Feel strongly about the under on his receptions prop,

My Picks:

  • Raiders -3
  • Under 37

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have won each of their last four games against the Chargers.
  • The Chargers have lost the first half in each of their last four home games.
  • The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • LAC is 4-4 as a favorite. Chiefs are 1-0 as underdogs.
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last 5 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Chiefs’ last 9 games.

Game Total:

  • SoFi Stadium is 6-10 toward the over this season between the Rams/Chargers.
  • An average of just under 46 points scored.
  • Teams average 42.5 points per game.
  • The Chargers showed the last 3 weeks that they won’t stop “trying” to score points. 2-1 toward the over in their last two games.
  • However, eleven of the Chargers’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Chiefs’ last 9 games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 9 of the Chiefs’ last 12 games overall have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Patrick Mahomes and some other starters will rest for KC, giving Blaine Gabbert the start. There are too many conflicting trends from a sides perspective, especially with the Chargers sitting on a 3.5-point “home-field” spread. I don’t want to bet on Easton Stick winning by FG-plus against any NFL team, even when it’s a Chiefs team playing backups. Rather just bet against the game overall, by taking the under at 35.5 points. Among all the teams going head-to-head this week, no matchup features a worse combined record toward the over than LAC-KC (31.3%).

Props:

Every RB not named James Cook that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER their receptions prop and 10 the last 12 have gone over their receiving yards prop.

10 of the last 12 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected passing yards total this season. Their defense is their strongest unit.

My Picks:

  • Under 35 

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (-13)

Sides:

  • The favorites have won each of the Cowboys’ last 13 games.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 14 of the Cowboys’ last 17 games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven home games.
  • Dallas is 75% ATS as a favorite this season. 11-1 overall.
  • But they are 3-6 ATS on the road this season
  • The Commanders have lost each of their last seven games.
  • Still, Washington has covered as an underdog in 54% of their games.

Game Total:

  • The Commanders are 4-3 toward the over at home this season, averaging over 50 points scored
  • Each of the Cowboys’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 7 of the Cowboys’ last 12 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 6 of 10 games through the air.
  • These teams average 49 points per game
  • Dallas had played 10 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense and scored 20-plus points in all games except for their back-to-back road losses (both unders).
  • 5 of the 7 road games Dallas has played over that stretch have gone UNDER the projected total.
  • 4 of the last 5 Commanders’ last four home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 5 of the Commanders’ last 7 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • One “under” was a 48-point game that narrowly hit the under.
  • If Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under.
  • When they allow 20 points on defense – 9-3 toward the OVER.
  • What are the Cowboys’ odds of scoring over 19.5 points? -800. AKA 89%

Overall:

Again, we have the Commanders as a double-digit home underdog against a Dallas Cowboys team that has been a bad bet to make on the road. The Commanders were close to covering this massive spread on Thanksgiving at Dallas – the score was 10-23 until the 4th quarter – and Dallas have everything to play for with the No. 2 playoff seed in the NFC on the line with a victory. Will Dallas win? Yes. But not by a 13 point margin.

Last week, the score was 13-10 in the first half for the Commanders-49ers. In the second half, Sam Howell had a red-zone INT at the 49ers’ 11-yard line. Then on the next possession, Howell was picked off giving the 49ers a short field. Had it not been for the two back-breaking INTs, the Commanders would have likely covered as double-digit underdogs. I think they do so this week.

As for the total, it’s been beaten down since it opened at 50. But even at 46.5 on FanDuel I still love the under. Dallas’ offense isn’t the same outdoors on the road. It’s going to be windy, with gusts up to 19 miles per hour.

The Commanders’ offense has also regressed immensely, scoring more than 20 points once in their last 6 games played. They have scored 20 or more points at home ONCE all season.

Props:

I LOVE the over on Dak Prescott‘s passing yards projection at 281.5 passing yards. You know that Dallas will be going all out with the No. 2 seed within reach after the Eagles lost to Arizona in Week 17. Prescott threw for 331 the last time he played the Commanders. And we all know, the Commanders boast arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

Dallas is allowing the 8th-fewest receiving yards and 5th-fewest receptions per game to WRs this season. You can get Terry McLaurin under 4.5 receptions at plus money this week across sportsbooks. He’s gone over this number twice in his last seven games played.

The Commanders’ defense is bad against everything… except for facing tight ends. 8th-fewest receptions allowed to tight ends at just 4.3 per game. No.2 in fewest receiving yards allowed to tight ends (40.6). When Jake Ferguson first faced the Commanders earlier this season, he had one catch for 35 yards.

The Commanders’ defense has been HORRIBLE versus RBs as of late. Last three games, they have allowed over 150 rushing yards per game to RBs. Bet the over on Tony Pollard’s 60.5 rushing yards prop. Pollard rushed for 79 yards the last time he played the Commanders.

My Picks:

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Sides:

  • The Bills have won the first half in each of their last six games. When leading at halftime, they win 82% of their games.
  • Miami has not won a game this season while trailing at halftime.
  • The Bills have won 10 of their last 11 games against the Dolphins.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Miami is 25% ATS as an underdog this season. 1-3 overall.
  • Miami is 6-2 ATS and 7-1 straight up at home this season, winning by no less than two TDs in all but 3 contests.
  • 25% cover rate as an underdog.
  • Buffalo is 9-4 as a favorite. 39% ATS.
  • But Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 12 games. Woof.
  • The road team has covered the spread in four of the Dolphins’ last 7 games.

Game Total:

  • Dolphins are 4-4 toward the total at home this season averaging 51 points per game
  • Eight of the last 11 games between the Bills and Dolphins have gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams average 49.5 points per game
  • 6 of the 10 Bills’ last games have gone UNDER.
  • Miami’s defense has played better than how they started the season, allowing fewer than 300 yards per game in six of their last 9 games. 5-4 toward the O/U. But they are dealing with a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
  • 7 of the Dolphins’ last 8 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

It’s the same old song and dance with the Dolphins. They beat bad teams but cannot be good teams. Buffalo – despite all its overblown turmoil – is an objectively good team. Unlike the Eagles, their 10-6 record is not as indicative of their status as one of the best teams remaining in the AFC. The Bills’ scoring differential is top-4 and nearly identical to the same mark as last season.

Furthermore, the Dolphins’ home/road splits are more about who they played at home, versus them having home-field advantage. They have played one playoff team at home – Dallas who plays horribly on the road – and they won with a last-minute field goal.

Simply put, Buffalo by 2.5 points isn’t enough.

As for the total, initially, it looks slam-dunk to just bet the under at such a high number. 49.5 is the average these teams score. Buffalo has not played a game with more than 48 points total scored since Week 12. 4 straight under 48 points. Only twice this year has a road Buffalo game gone over 49.5 points.

Meanwhile, Miami has gone under in two straight home games. Should be 3 had it not been for the 4th-quarter collapse versus the Titans. Prime time unders made a killing this season. 70% of games in prime time have gone UNDER the total this season.

Props:

Running back James Cook had been on a heater but has only surpassed 69.5 yards in two of his last 5 games played. Cook has just 73 or more yards in one game (vs Dallas) in his last six games.

He was held to 56 yards the last time he faced the Patriots. I think he will run into similar challenges this week.

Dolphins are allowing the 8th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs at 77 yards. 3.9 yards per carry faced with the No.1 lowest explosive rush rate on defense.

Since the Dolphins’ Week 10 bye week, they have allowed two teams’ RBs to rush for more than 40 yards against them.

Cook rushed for 29 yards in the Bills’ first game versus the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are allowing the 10th-most receptions per game to tight ends (5.1).  8 of the last 11 tight ends to face the Dolphins have surpassed their receiving yards prop.

Dalton Kincaid was the leading receiver for Buffalo last week catching four of seven targets for 87 yards. His usage was back up to a high route participation at nearly 80% along with a 55% snap share. He saw over 120 air yards with a 25% target share.

Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir also contributed to the receiving game against the Patriots but without touchdowns. Diggs was again an afterthought with 7 targets but just 4 catches for 26 yards.

Diggs continues to see a high target share every week but to no avail for production. His snaps are dwindling at his latest of 65% and he tied for third in routes run behind Gabe Davis and Kincaid. Saw over 100 air yards but it didn’t matter.

Take the UNDER on Diggs’ 60.5 receiving yards prop in Week 18. Gone UNDER this in 6 of his last 7 games.

My Picks:

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