Navigate

NFL Sunday Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Conference Championships)

by |

This Sunday, the NFL AFC and NFC Championship Games presents an exciting two-game slate that promises to deliver action-packed matchups, perfect for both casual fans and serious bettors. With games featuring teams battling for their tickets to Super Bowl LIX, there’s plenty to focus on from a betting perspective, including prop bets, spreads, totals, and same-game parlays.

These games offer a wide array of betting opportunities, with two exciting matchups with everything on the line.

Whether you’re targeting individual player props or looking to make the most of the total points and game spreads, this slate is stacked with betting angles to explore. Let’s dive into what you should be keeping an eye on and how to maximize your bets for this exciting Sunday NFL playoff action.

NFL Sunday Conference Championship Betting Primer

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • Jayden Daniels is now 5-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 12 games against teams with winning records (58%).
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Commanders have scored last in each of their last six games as underdogs.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in 11 of their last 17 games
  • The Commanders have scored first in 10 of their last 15 games.
  • The Commanders have won the first quarter in seven of their last 12 games.
  • The Commanders are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games (67%)
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 18 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against teams with losing records (73%).
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last 16 home games.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in seven of their last 12 games.
  • In the Eagles’ last five games, the first score has been an Eagles Touchdown.
  • The Eagles have won 14 of their last 15 games.
  • The Eagles have won 14 of their last 20 games as favorites (70%).
  • The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in their last 15 games.
  • The Eagles have been the first to 21 points in their last 14 games.
  • The Eagles have scored first in each of their last six games.
  • The Eagles are 5-14-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season (24%)
  • They covered just five spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 16-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (69%).
  • The Commanders have a -162 implied team total of 19.5 points.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 14 of the Eagles’ last 24 games.
  • The Eagles are 17-12 ATS as home favorites in their last 29 games (59%).
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 26 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Eagles have lost six of their last 12 road games.

Totals:

  • Four of the Commanders' last five road games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Commanders' last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Commanders’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nineteen of the Commanders’ last 27 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 8-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 19-5 toward the OVER (73%).
  • The Commanders are 6-3 O/U at home, averaging over 51 points per game.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Washington has the fifth-highest scoring offense in the NFL (28.5) and sixth-best red-zone offense.
  • Eight of the Eagles’ last 10 postseason games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Eagles' last 15 games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Eagles’ last 10 games in January has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 2-8 toward the over at home this season (41.5 points per game).
  • Six of the Eagles’ last seven home games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Eagles' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 16-21 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 7-12 toward the over on the road.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 9-9 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023.
  • Nine of the Eagles’ last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Eagles have won each of their last nine home games. And it's been on the back of an elite rushing attack spearheaded by Saquon Barkley and a suffocating defense led by Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

When the Philadelphia defense plays well, they win and cover. The Eagles are 16-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (69%). Last week, they allowed over 20 points to the Rams, and they blew the -6.5 cover despite the game seemingly being over after Barkley's 78-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

I liked the Rams ATS last week, and I'll be the first to admit Los Angeles was lucky to cover the spread late.

I'm not as certain the Washington Commanders will make it two weeks in a row, although that goes against their hot streak.

The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record. And they have been doing it in full comeback fashion after falling behind first in most of their recent games.

That includes back in Week 16 at home versus Philadelphia, when they overcame a fourth-quarter deficit.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Commanders win probability in Week 16 was as low as 5.7% facing 4th & 11 from the Eagles 41-yard line with 0:19 seconds remaining in third quarter trailing 27-14.

After a Jayden Daniels scramble to keep the possession alive, Commanders would go on to score touchdowns on three of their final four drives.

Sunday's 2024 NFC Championship Game will be the third matchup between the Eagles and Commanders.

The Commanders were 4-point underdogs in both matchups and the totals closed at 47 & 49 points. The Eagles won the first matchup by eight points (26-18 for a 44-point total) and that was against the Commanders at home.

In the Week 16 matchup in Washington, the Commanders won 36-33. Jayden Daniels threw 5 TDs. But Jalen Hurts barely played in this game after he was knocked out with a concussion. The Eagles also should have held on to win the game, had it not been for a critical DeVonta Smith drop on third and five from Kenny Pickett.

It's been an even split in terms of covers and totals in the two previous matchups, but both previous matchups seem somewhat incomplete. Daniels wasn't rushing as much after sustaining a rib injury a few weeks before Week 11. Hurts barely played in the second matchup, so how much of those game are predictive?

A few constants from both matchups while diving in.

  • Jayden Daniels threw interceptions in both games (3 total).
  • Saquon Barkley rushed for 146-plus yards in both contests (Eagles had 200-plus rushing yards in total in both games).
  • Terry McLaurin was held under 64.5 receiving yards twice (although he was more productive in the second matchup).

I - like most people - thought the Washington Commanders' Cinderella story would end last week versus the Detroit Lions. Eventually, I figured their hot run would run cold, especially based on their inability to stop the run defensively.

But what I didn't consider enough was that the Lions' injuries on defense would catch up to them first. And that's exactly what happened.

However, I don't think will happen against the Eagles defense that allowed the fewest yards and second-fewest points per game this season. The Commanders last two opponents - Lions and Buccaneers - had bad defenses all season.

The Eagles have been the league's top unit since their bye week.

I think that is going to present major issues and a challenge for the Commanders offense. They lost their best offensive lineman last week in RG Sam Cosmi with an ACL injury. He is the Commanders' second highest-graded OL player this season per PFF.

Trent Scott will replace him. He played well versus Detroit, but Philly's defense will present another problem for him with Jalen Carter disrupting the interior.

According to Next Gen Stats, Scott had played just 18 career snaps at right guard before stepping in to replace the injured Cosmi in the Divisional Round. During the regular season, Scott logged 120 snaps at right tackle for the Commanders.

And I see no path where the Commanders run defense can stop Barkley. He is playing at an unreal MVP level for a running back.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Commanders allowed the 2nd-highest explosive run rate (13.2%) and the most yards before contact per carry (1.9) to running backs this season. Across their two regular season matchups, the Commanders allowed 197 yards before contact to Barkley (3.6 YBC per carry), including 6 explosive runs.

Having tight end Dallas Goedert back in the lineup has also greatly helped the Eagles run game. According to Next Gen Stats, Eagles have averaged 6.3 yards per designed run with Goedert on the field this season (including the playoffs), compared to 4.7 yards per designed run without Goedert.

DG didn't play in the Week 16 game versus the Commanders.

With confirmation that Hurts and Quinyon Mitchell are going to play in the NFC Championship Game, the spread has moved in favor of the Eagles to -6.

That’s the side that I ultimately fall on. The public side is backing the plucky rookie QB. Per BetMGM, as of Wednesday morning, Washington amassed 82% of bets placed and 66% of money wagered to win outright in Philadelphia.

I understand the concerns about the Eagles passing game and how good Daniels has been. But Philly's formula for success hasn't been with their passing game all season. It's through running the ball and playing defense. And given those matchup advantages compared to the Commanders' recent opponents; I'll take the Eagles laying the points to win by a touchdown.

The Eagles have covered three of their last four games when they have been favored by 4.5 points or more at home this season. The average margin of victory in those contests was 10 points. And they were all against playoff teams (including the Commanders).

And as a final nail in the coffin for the Commanders +6, we cannot forget the Honolulu Flu trend. Teams do not do well ATS after facing the Lions. One team all season (Chicago Bears in Week 17) as covered the spread the week after playing the Lions the week before under zero rest advantages. And even that Bears game was very wonky, being played after Christmas on a Thursday night where Chicago lost to Seattle 6-3 (spread was Seahawks -3.5).

Full disclosure from a financial standpoint, I have an offseason ticket for the Eagles to win the NFC, so I might be hedging a bit on the Commanders +6, in case the Eagles lose or don't cover.

But if I am handicapping this game strictly on this game alone with no other outside variables, I like the Eagles side.

As for the total. An easy under play for me here. Six of the Eagles’ last seven home games has gone UNDER the total points line. The Eagles are 2-8 toward the over at home this season (41.5 points per game).

Eagles' home games hit heavy toward the under, which is par for the course of a team that wins with a combination of rushing/defense.

Meanwhile, four of the Commanders’ last five road games has gone UNDER the total points line. The last over was last week versus Detroit, played at the Coors Fields of the NFL. A very much outlier game that skews perception.

The 47.5 points is too large a point total for a divisional game in Philly, where games have averaged 41.5 points.

Props:

Austin Ekeler has 26+ receiving yards with the commanders as road underdogs in four straight games. He has gone over his receiving yards prop in all but four games this season (10-4 toward the over), including 5-1 in road games. But as suggested to me by @kendallglittle on NFL Playoffs Conference Championships Early Picks BettingPros YouTube Video, we can further exploit Ekeler yardage if we also include rushing.

He has 50-plus rushing and receiving yards in 11 of 14 games played this season (79%). He is a perfect 6-0 to the over as an underdog. On the road, 7-1 toward 50-plus rushing/receiving yards from scrimmage. On FanDuel you can get Ekeler’s rushing + receiving yards at 45.5 (-113) but 50-plus at +110.

Ekeler has the most RB receiving yards this season without a receiving TD. He also two red zone touches last week. Ekeler’s anytime TD odds are the third-highest +EV bet in the Week 21 anytime touchdown scorer report.

Brian Robinson led the way with 77 yards and two touchdowns (four red zone carries) on 15 carries. He finally broke his 5-game TD drought.

B-Rob has been held under 37.5 rushing yards in three of his last six games. But his big game versus the Lions is a huge win for him going forward.

The Eagles run defense got run over last week by the Rams, after they lost linebacker Nakobe Dean in the Wild Card round. Rams RB Kyren Williams rushed for 106 yards.

The last four RBs Philly has faced have gone OVER their rushing yards projection. Robinson rushed for 63 yards in the first matchup versus the Eagles but just 24 rushing yards in his second game. But after last week's performance, I like the Over on his 37.5 rushing yards number.

I also like the Over on his 9.5 carries. He has only missed this number thrice this season in-game with a healthy Austin Ekeler in the lineup (73%). He averaged 13 carries in the two games versus the Eagles this season.

The BettingPros projections have Robinson north of 40 rushing yards and 10-plus carries.

Terry McLaurin finished with seven targets (two in the red zone), 4 receptions, 87 yards, 1 touchdown, with a long of 58 yards against the Lions.

Without the huge catch-and-run, McLaurin would have finished with minimal yardage. I like the under on his 62.5 receiving yards prop this week. Under in both games versus the Eagles this season. Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell is expected to play.

According to Next Gen Stats, McLaurin aligned as the left wide receiver on 35 of his 46 snaps (76.1%) in Week 11 against the Commanders, therefore matching up with RCB Quinyon Mitchell for a majority of the day.

McLaurin aligned across from Mitchell on 20 of his 25 routes (85.0%) and was not targeted once with Mitchell as the nearest defender. McLaurin's lone reception on the day came against Cooper DeJean; he finished with one catch on two targets for 10 yards. Jayden Daniels avoided Quinyon Mitchell's side of the field completely, attempting just one pass outside the numbers to the left on a checkdown to Austin Ekeler.

In the second matchup (Next Gen Stats), McLaurin moved around the formation more in his second matchup with the Eagles this season, aligning as the left wide receiver on just 36 of 58 snaps (62.1%, his 2nd-lowest rate in a game this season).

Dallas Goedert led the way with 4 receptions for 56 yards against the Los Angeles Rams. He has 47 yards in back-to-back favorable matchups and has another good matchup on deck versus the Commanders defense. They have allowed six of the last seven TEs they have faced to go OVER their receiving yards projection.

In Week 11 against the Commanders defense, Goedert caught all 5 of his targets for 61 yards, averaging 12.2 yards per reception, with a long of 32 yards and 31 yards after the catch. 20% Target share.

I also like Goedert's chances of scoring in this matchup. 16-1 to score the game's first touchdown.

A.J. Brown, despite 7 targets and a 35% Target share, only had 2 receptions for 14 yards against the Rams. But he had four targets in the first half.

Brown dropped 2 of his 7 targets, snapping his streak of 116 targets without a drop dating back to Week 16, 2023 (next Gen Stats).

Regardless, AJB has been the focal point of the Eagles passing attack. He had five-plus catches in both games earlier this season versus the Commanders, and his reception prop is down to 4.5. Take the MORE THAN on Prizepicks after he posted a 35% Target share last week.

All things being considered, I think the "safer" bet is the over on the yardage. AJB WR1 can also break free and had 65-plus receiving yards in both games versus the Commanders. Marshon Lattimore's coverage might make five catches tough (hence the bigger payout) but Brown only needs to beat him once or twice in tight man coverage to go over 66 yards.

According to Next Gen Stats, Zach Ertz has received a team-high 25 targets on 87 routes run inside the red zone this season including the playoffs, resulting in a 28.7% target rate, highest among Commanders receivers.

He has accounted for a team-high 27.8% target share inside the red zone, turning his 25 targets into 16 receptions for 104 yards and 8 touchdowns. Of his 8 touchdowns, 7 of them have come when facing man coverage.

Ertz's odds are listed at +300 for an anytime TD. By far the best bang for your buck TD bet in the Eagles-Commanders matchup. He scored against his former team back in Week 11. The Commanders TE saw 5 targets (three in the red zone) last week, catching all 5 for 28 yards and 1 touchdown with a long of 10 yards.

He has scored in three of his last four games (six of his last 10). During the regular season, no tight end had more targets inside the 5-yard line than Ertz.

My Picks:

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams that held a winning record (72%).
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games (75%)
  • The Chiefs starters have won 22 of their last 23 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 17 games as favorites.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 13 of their last 24 games.
  • The Chiefs have scored last in seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home in their last 28 home games
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last seven postseason games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 road games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 20 of the Chiefs' last 31 games.
  • The Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • Overall, KC is 9-10-1 as road favorites (45%).
  • The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS this season, covering spreads of -6.5 points or greater
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Bills have won 21 of their last 26 games.
  • Josh Allen is 58% ATS as an underdog (20-14-2). The Bills are 4-4 as underdogs in their last eight appearances as such.
  • The Bills have won 13 of their last 14 home games.
  • The Bills have won each of their last 10 home games.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 23-8 as a favorite since the start of last season and 16-15 ATS.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 18-2 straight up and 12-8 ATS at home.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in nine of their last 13 games as favorites (66%).
  • Bills are 9-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record (56%).
  • The Bills have won their last 16 home games against opponents on a losing streak.

Totals:

  • KC is 4-5 O/U at home this season, averaging under 42 points per game.
  • Sixteen of the Chiefs' last 25 games have gone UNDER the total points line (19 of the last 27, 70%).
  • Twenty of the Chiefs’ last 26 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line (77%).
  • Three of the Chiefs' last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just three teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11, the Panthers in Week 12, and the Broncos in Week 18).
  • Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in 10 of their last 12 games with their starters.
  • Sixteen of the Bills’ last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line – 21 of their last 27 road games.
  • Each of the Bills’ last four road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Bills’ last six games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bills’ last 13 road games have gone OVER the total points line (54%).
  • The Bills have been the first to 20 points in their last 10 home games.
  • Eleven of the Bills’ last 13 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 8-2 toward the over this season (over 50 points per game).
  • Twelve of the Bills’ last 15 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Do you want to be on the opposite side of the Kansas City Chiefs in a close game? I do not. Because all that the team does is win close games.

And that includes projected close games. KC has played three games with a +/- 2-point spread since last year's Super Bowl. They won twice but lost against the Bills this season.

Buffalo has had similar success in +/- 2.5-point spreads, boasting a 4-0 record in applicable matchups (5-2 overall and ATS).

As I noted last week, I felt strongly that the Bills would bring their best against the Ravens. As a result, the game went over the 51-point total even after the Ravens failed to convert the final two-point conversion.

I feel similar about this matchup. Because I strongly believe that Buffalo cannot enter this game with the mindset that they can win a close game versus KC.

They beat the Chiefs by nine points in their earlier matchup in Buffalo. The game went over the 46-point total and Buffalo easily covered.

But the Bills didn't leave anything to chance by winning by two scores. Given that Buffalo is the road team (while also preparing for KC to get favorable calls from the officials), I think they enter this game with an aggressive mindset - very much unlike last week's win against the Baltimore Ravens.

I opened this week leaning toward the under at 48.5 points, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out a game between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will score 50-plus points.

Each of the Bills’ last four road games have gone OVER the total points line, when they have adopted more aggressive game planning.

And although the Chiefs game went under last week, the Houston Texans are a vastly superior defense to Buffalo (third in DVOA this season).

I like the over at 48.5 points. I also like the Bills' team total at over 23.5 points (-108 DK Sportsbook). They have scored at least 24 points versus the Chiefs in four of the last five matchups.

Buffalo has scored 23-plus points in 79% of their games this season.

As for the final take on the sides...

I'm backing the Chiefs. I can't bet against Mahomes in the playoffs in a close game. The easiest way to ruin your Sunday football viewing experience is to bet against Mahomes. And this seems to be somewhat contrarian. According to BetMGM, 72% of bets placed  are on the Bills to win outright (67% of money wagered).

However, I do say this with the caveat that if Buffalo wins, I think it's by more than a field goal. They need to dominate Kansas City to beat them. It's part of the reason why I like taking Buffalo's team total as they should be aggressive regardless of the Chiefs' offensive approach.

Props:

Travis Kelce has 14 straight games of 70-plus receiving yards in the postseason. Kelce has also averaged one TD per playoff game in his last 11 postseason games.

Noah Gray added 3 catches for 13 yards (three targets) against the Houston Texans.

In his first matchup versus the Bills, Kelce caught just 2 passes on 4 targets for 8 yards. Gray was more involved, recording four receptions on five targets for 23 yards and two touchdowns on a team-high 17% Target share.

I like the over on Gray's 1.5 receptions. He has averaged 2.4 catches this season and has gone over 1.5 receptions in 7 of his last 10 games.

Isiah Pacheco has LESS THAN 31.5 rushing yards in three straight games.

Patrick Mahomes has tossed for 250-plus passing yards in seven of his last 11 games and in eight of his last 11 home games dating back to last year's postseason. Take the OVER on 249.5 passing yards this week (opened 241.5).

Xavier Worthy has four catches or more in eight straight games (5-plus in six straight), with 40-plus yards in all contests. Take over/more than for Worthy's 4.5 receptions and receiving yards this week.

Back in Week 11 versus the Bills, Worthy led the team with four receptions on five targets (17% Target share), amassing 61 yards and a touchdown. All his production came in the first half.

Hollywood Brown had two targets in the first half of last week’s game. He was not heavily targeted, but his snaps were a season-high at 67% with his route participation at 71%. He also had an end zone target but also failed to catch a deep ball from his quarterback (67 air yards).

Even though Brown didn't post a strong box score, the usage was very encouraging for his stats moving forward. Take the over on his 34.5 receiving yards prop (more than 37.5 on Prizepicks). 10 of the last 10 most comparable WRs to Brown have gone over their receiving yards projection versus the Bills.

Brown has 45-plus receiving yards in two of his three games played this season.

DeAndre Hopkins has gone UNDER his receiving yards projection in seven of his last eight games played with the Chiefs this season including the last two games with Marquise Brown in the starting lineup.

Khalil Shakir led the receiving group with 67 yards on 6 catches and seven targets (32% Target share, 27 air yards), including a long reception of 34 yards. Shakir was the only Bills WR to see more than one target in the first half.

According to Next Gen Stats, Shakir recorded all his production against zone coverage, hauling in all 6 of his targets for 67 yards vs. zone (no receptions on one target against man coverage).

Shakir caught a reception against six different Ravens' defenders, where only Brandon Stevens forced an incompletion as the nearest defender. Shakir's only incompletion came in a tight window.

Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in 10 of 17 games this season (58%). Take the OVER on his 57.5 receiving yards this week (it opened at 53.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks).

Shakir recorded eight receptions on 12 targets (32% Target share) for 70 yards in the first matchup versus the Chiefs (although tight end Dalton Kincaid did not play).

Keon Coleman also missed the first matchup versus the Chiefs.

The Bills rookie WR has 26+ receiving yards in six straight road games.

Last week, Coleman had just 1 target and 1 reception for 5 yards. But Coleman picked up a DPI on a deep pass from Allen. He also remained at the top of the roster in terms of snaps (66%) and routes run (48%) among Bills wideouts.

Among all the Bills WRs, Coleman's receiving yardage prop seems the most exploitable. Keep in mind that in half of those road games, he was going for 49-plus receiving yards. Those were all games where the Bills were road underdogs.

The BP projections have him well north of 21 yards (28.3). I also love his long-shot anytime touchdown odds as a major red-zone threat.

I really like his outlook this week, and I think he’s a fun bet to lead all WRs in receiving yards on Sunday. The odds are listed +3100 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Coleman’s 125-yard game this season is tied for the second-largest yardage game among remaining players left in the playoff pool. McLaurin has a 125-yard game but is unlikely to hit that number against the Eagles. Goedert has the largest game at 170 receiving yards, but that came when Brown was injured back in Week 4.

Amari Cooper last week: 1 target, 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, long 0 yards. He played 34% of the snaps. Cooper secured 2 of 3 targets for 55 yards, averaging 27.5 yards per catch, with a long of 30 yards in the first matchup versus the Chiefs this season. Leaning toward the MORE THAN on his 1.5 receptions this week. Such a low bar to pass. However, I think I like his teammate slightly more.

Curtis Samuel had 2 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards, 0 touchdowns with a long of 8 yards against the Ravens. Samuel also had a short 8-yard game taken off on a penalty. He played the 5th-most snaps among Bills WRs. But in the first matchup versus KC, Samuel caught 5 of 6 targets (16% Target share) for 58 yards and a touchdown.

Given the amount of designed looks Samuel gets, I think he easily gets over 1.5 receptions in the rematch versus the Chiefs. He caught three passes in the first half in the 1st Chiefs matchup.

Josh Allen has attempted fewer than 31.5 passes in four straight games. However, they have all been at home. In Allen's last four road games, he has gone OVER 31.5 pass attempts and thrown for more than 280 passing yards.

If Buffalo wants to win this game, they won't be able to be as conservative as they have been over the last month. Before the final four games of the season, Allen had attempted 32-plus passes in seven of eight games.

I think that also makes them very live to score the first touchdown (which you then bet the subsequent Chiefs ML). My approach was initially to not over think this one. Josh Allen first TD lock of the week? Not quite. He only has two 1st TDs all season (same as James Cook). Cook scored the first TD when these teams first played earlier this season. Cook also had seven red-zone touches last week but didn’t score. Given Cook can also score from outside the red zone  – KC’s run defense hasn’t been as good since the start of the season – I like his 1st touchdown odds the most at close to 9-1.

My Picks:

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App